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28 March 2014 Technical Levels for Metals and Energy

Commodity Exchange Contract---- Trend------ S2 -------S1------- LTP--------- R1-------- R2 
Bullions 
Gold --------MCX ------Apr ---------Down ----28200 ----28300 ---28449------ 28600----- 28750 
Spot Gold------------------------------ Down ----1283 -----1287----- 1294------- 1301------- 1308 
Gold Hedge NCDEX --May --------Down ----25090---- 25180 ----25320 -----25450------ 25580 
Silver------- MCX------ May-------- Down ----42200 ----42500----- 42891---- 43300 -----43700 
Spot Silver----------------------------- Down---- 19.40 ----19.60----- 19.81 ------20.00----- 20.20 
Silver Hedge NCDEX Apr ----------Down----- 3790 ----3810 ------3853.00--- 3890 -----3920 
Base Metals 


LME Copper --------------------------Sideways 6450----- 6520------- 6592 -----6620------ 6680 
Copper -----MCX----- Apr---------- Sideways 393------ 397 --------401.25---- 403 --------407 
Zinc --------MCX----- Mar---------- Sideways 116.50--- 117.50 -----118.60--- 119.50---- 120.50 
Lead------- MCX------ Mar ---------Sideways 121.50---- 122.50---- 123.65---- 124.50--- 125.50 
Aluminium MCX----- Mar---------- Down ----100.00---- 101.00----- 102.05---- 103.00--- 104.00 
Nickel------ MCX----- Mar---------- Down -----930 -------938 -------945.90----- 952 ------960 
Energy 
Crude Oil --MCX----- Apr---------- Sideways 6030----- 6090------ 6139------- 6180 ------6220 
Crude Oil --NYMEX May---------- Up ---------99.60---- 100.50--- 101.33---- 102.00----- 102.60 
Brent Crude Oil MCX Apr---------- Sideways 6520------ 6570 -----6625------ 6660------- 6700 
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX May----- Up --------106.00--- 106.80 ---107.67----- 108.30---- 108.90 
Natural Gas MCX----- Apr ----------Up --------265------- 268 ------272.70----- 275-------- 278


Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect precious metals prices to trade lower as the growth in the US economy has raised the prospects of dollar to strengthen in turn exerting downside pressure on prices. In addition, Bullion will be under pressure on comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that rates could start rising early next year. However, prices will be cushioned on strong demand from China and indications that the European Central Bank may support more economic stimulus measures.
On the MCX, rupee weakness in international markets will push the metal lower; however weakness in the rupee can support the prices.

Natural Gas inventory update
The US Energy Department (EIA) released its weekly inventories report last night showed that natural gas inventories declined by 57 bcf which is 90 bcf below a year earlier and well above five year average of 7 Bcf.

Outlook Energy
Positive economic momentum in the US has raises prospects of growth in turn hopes of high demand for energy. In addition the sanctions imposed by the US on Russia may cause disruptions of supplies in crude markets. U.S. crude, will continued its upward trend following Wednesday's data that showed a further drain in oil inventories at the Cushing, which hit their lowest level since January 2012. In addition, Low supply out of Libya and Nigeria lent further support to Brent crude prices.
On the MCX, prices will trade positive tracking cues from international markets and the escalation of geo-political tensions.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a positive note today on the back of upbeat market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX.
Also, estimates of positive Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data from the US in the evening session coupled with expectations of rise in demand in China will support gains in prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide direction to prices .

Important Events DATA for Today

Indicator ------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Household Spending y/y----------- Japan ----5:00am------------- - 0.2% ---1.1%--- Medium
Tokyo Core CPI y/y ----------------Japan -----5:00am------------- - 0.9%--- 0.9%-- Medium
Retail Sales y/y ----------------------Japan ----5:20am -------------- 3.4%---- 4.4%-- Medium
German Prelim CPI m/m -----------Euro----- All day------------- - 0.4%---- 0.5%-- Medium
French Consumer Spending m/m -Euro----- 1:15pm -------------- 1.0% ---(-2.1%) Medium
Current Account ---------------------UK ------3:00pm ------------ (-13.5B) (-20.7B) High
Final GDP q/q------------------------ UK------ 3:00pm ------------- 0.7%---- 0.7%--- Medium
Italian 10-y Bond Auction ----------Euro---- Tentative ----------------------------- - - Medium
Core PCE Price Index m/m-------- US------- 6:00pm -------------- 0.1%---- 0.1%-- Medium
Personal Spending m/m------------ US -------6:00pm --------------- 0.3%---- 0.4% -Medium
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment US----- 7:25pm --------------- 80.6------ 79.9- Medium

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