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Commodities Weekly Technical Report 07.04.2014 to 11.04.2014

For this week we expect gold prices to find support in the range of 28,050 – 28,000 levels. Trading consistently below 28,000 levels would lead towards the strong support at 27,750 levels and then finally towards the major support at 27,440 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 28,600-28,550 levels. Trading consistently above 28,600 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 28,900 levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 29,220 levels.

MCX / Spot Gold Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1-28,000/ $ 1285 R1-28,600 / $ 1315
S2-27,750 / $ 1275 R2-28,900 / $ 1330
Weekly Recommendation: will update later


For this week we expect silver prices to find support in the range of 42,300 – 42,350 levels. Trading consistently below 42,300 levels would lead towards the strong support 41,600 levels and then finally towards the major support at 40,800 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 42,450-42,500 levels. Trading consistently above 42,500 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 44,100 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 45,000 levels.
MCX / Spot Silver Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1-42,300 / $ 19.60 R1-43,450 / $ 20.20
S2-41,600 / $ 19.30 R2-44,100 / $20.50
Weekly Recommendation: will update later

For this week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 395.50 –395 levels. Trading consistently below 395 levels would lead towards strong support at 389.50 levels and then finally towards the major support at 382.30 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 404.50-405 levels. Trading consistently above 405 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 409 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 416 levels.
MCX / LME Copper Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1 – 395.00/ $6500 R1 – 409.00/ $6750
S2 – 389.50/ $6410 R2 – 416.00/ $6860

For this week we expect Crude prices to find support in the range of 5990 –6000 levels. Trading consistently below 5990 levels would lead towards the strong support at 5930 levels and then finally towards the major support at 5860 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 6110-6115 levels. Trading consistently above 6115 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 6150 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 6220 levels.
MCX / NYMEX Crude Oil Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1- 5990/ $ 99.50 R1-6115 / $ 101.75
S2-5930/ $ 98.50 R2-6150/ $ 102.30

For this week we expect Natural Gas prices to find support in the range of 261.50 –261 levels. Trading consistently below 260 levels would lead towards the strong support at 253 levels and then finally towards the major support at 245.40 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 275.50-276 levels. Trading consistently above 276 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 283 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 296 levels.
MCX / NYMEX Natural Gas Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1- 260/ $ 4.30 R1-276 / $ 4.60

S2-253.00 / $ 4.15 R2-283.00 / $ 4.75

Commodities Weekly Tracker News Data events analysis
Monday | April 7, 2014
Gold
Weekly Price Performance
== Weak physical demand from Asia and continued optimism about US economy are the
prime reason for gold prices to be under pressure for the continuous three weeks in a
row

==Last week spot gold prices opened on a negative note traded in the band of $20 and
languished near seven week low and closed the week gaining by around half a
percent
== Decline in SPDR holdings also exacerbated the fall and exerted downside pressure on
prices
== Bullion came under pressure after data showed U.S. factory activity rose in March,
with production posting its biggest increase since the recession ended
== Receding geopolitical tensions and fears the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates
next year are also weighing on gold
== In the Indian markets, gold prices gained marginally around 0.30 percent in the last
week Gold prices touched a weekly low of Rs.27861/10 gms before closing at
Rs.28464/10 gms on Friday.
SPDR Gold Holdings
== In the international markets, gold made a weekly low of $1277.3/oz, made a high of
$1306.1/oz and closed the week gaining marginally by 0.67 percent to close at
$1303.2/oz.
== Last week, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust declined by around 1 percent to 809.18
tonnes.
== On a year-to-date basis, holdings have risen by 16.35 tonnes, gaining around 2
percent.
India to ease curbs on gold imports
==India will consider easing curbs on gold imports in consultation with the central bank,
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram told a news conference last week.
== India, which used to be the No. 1 buyer of gold before the government slapped a
record 10 percent import tax and put in place other restrictions to cut ballooning
trade deficit, has recently allowed five private banks to import the metal.

Gold imports to hit 10-month high in March
==The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to April 1 showed that the bullion investors cut their net longs positions to106,354 contracts, down 11.4% from net longs of 120,042 in the preceding week. Outlook
==From a week’s point of view, we expect gold prices to trade lower as the NFP data released last Friday shows continued job additions in the US although the data fell short of expectations.
==Weak physical demand at this time of the year from Asia and optimism about growth in the US will act as a prime factor for prices to come down in the coming weeks
==Money managers have also been cutting their net long positions in the recent weeks and this can exert downside pressure on prices.
==India’s gold imports in March are estimated to have risen to nearly 50 tonnes, the most since the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) import curbs came into force in May last year mainly due to high imports during the last week of the month.
==The precious metal is expected to have arrived in large quantities through official channels, including direct import by export-oriented units, in the last week of March.
==Also, The rise in flow could have been as the five banks allowed to import gold have become more active in the business.
==Further, Raghuram Rajan’s comments pointing towards some relaxation in gold import curbs, besides an increased flow of imported gold, helped pull premiums for delivery lower to $35 an ounce from $45-50 a week earlier. CFTC holdings:
==Also, geopolitical tensions between US and Russia seem to ease and the major factor for prices to trade lower.
==In the Indian markets, Rupee appreciation will act as a negative factor. Weekly Technical Levels
==Spot Gold : Support $1285/$1275 Resistance $1315/$1330. (CMP: $1299.80)
==For MCX Gold June trading recommendation may be update here later.(CMP: Rs.28270)

Silver
Weekly Price Performance
== Taking cues from marginal gains in gold prices, even international silver prices gained
marginally by around 0.61 percent in the last week.
== Profit booking at higher levels, and waning interest in the white metal is acting as a negative
factor for silver prices.
== Strength in the dollar index on account of good economic data sets from US is exerting
downside pressure on prices.
== On the other hand, strength in the base metal complex cushioned prices
== In the international markets, the white metal touched a weekly low of $19.64/oz and closed
the week at $19.89/oz.
== In the Indian markets, prices gained marginally by around 0.5 percent tracking cues from the
international markets. Silver prices on the MCX made a weekly low of Rs.42528/kg and
closed at Rs.42969/kg.
CFTC holdings:
==The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the
week to April 1 showed that the net silver longs declined to 5,582 contracts as of last week,
down 24.9% from net longs of 7,442 in the preceding week..
Outlook
==Taking cues from weak gold prices, silver too is expected to trade lower this week.
== Money managers also also slashing their long bets on silver and this can act as a negative
factor.
==Further, fall in the iShares Silver Trust Holdings will exert downside pressure on the prices.
== Additionally, weak market sentiments on account of slow Chinese growth will act as a
negative factor. However, China’s actions to stimulate the economy via easing will cushion
sharp fall in prices
==In the Indian markets, rupee appreciation will act as a negative factor.
Weekly Technical Levels
==Spot Silver: Support $19.60/$19.30 Resistance $20.20/$20.50. (CMP: $19.85)
== For trading MCX Silver May  recommendation may be update here later. (CMP:
Rs.42909)

Copper
Weekly Price Performance
== LME Copper prices fell by around 0.5 percent in the last week owing to weak manufacturing
data from the biggest consumers coupled with easing concerns of supply disruption after the
mines in the world’s biggest producer, Chile resumed normal operations.
==Also, weak employment data from the US spurred concerns regarding growth in the second
largest consumer, thereby exerting downside pressure on prices. further, mixed global market
sentiments along with mixed economic data from the US and Euro Zone acted as negative
factors.
==However, sharp downside was cushioned on the back of expectations of additional stimulus
from China coupled with positive economic data from Germany. Also, decline in inventories by
3.5 percent supported prices. The red metal touched a weekly low of $6576/tonne and closed
at $6613/tonne on Friday.
==MCX Copper prices declined by 0.9 percent taking cues from Rupee appreciation and closed at
Rs.401.1/kg after touching a weekly low of Rs.400.65/kg in the last trading session.
Copper Inventories
== On the LME, copper inventories declined by 3.5 percent to 257,775 tonnes in the last week as
against a closing of 267,200 tonnes in the prior week.
== Shanghai inventories plunged by 11 percent to 172,370 tonnes for the week ending 4th April’14.
CFTC holdings:
== The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the
week to April 1 showed that speculators trimmed net-short wagers in copper to 19,778
contracts from 25,034 contracts in the prior week.
Outlook
==We expect copper prices to trade mixed on the back of strength in the DX along with weak
global market sentiments that will exert downside pressure on prices.
==While on the other hand, expectations of positive economic data from the US along with
favorable industrial production data from Euro Zone will cushion sharp downside or even
reversal in prices.
==In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.
Weekly Technical Levels
LME Copper: Support $6500/$6410 Resistance $6750/$6860. (CMP: $6597)

Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
==In the last week, Nymex crude oil prices started the week on a positive note moved in a band
of $3 and ended marginally negative. US crude continues to trade above $100 on escalating
tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
==Russia raised the gas price for Ukraine on Thursday for the second time last week, almost
doubling it in three days and piling pressure on a neighbor on the brink of bankruptcy in the
crisis over Crimea.
==Prices declined on news of restart of Libyan ports that can open up 600,000 bpd of crude for
exports from Libya and poor manufacturing data from China and Europe
==WTI Crude oil prices touched a high of $101.97/bbl and closed at $101.14/bbl last week.
==On the domestic bourses, prices declined marginally by 0.5 percent in the last week and
closed at Rs.6080/bbl on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.5933/bbl.
Oil Inventories
==As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories fell by
5.8 million barrels for the week ending on 28th March 2014. Gasoline inventories rose by
18,000 barrels whereas distillate inventories slipped by 17000 barrels.
==As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories fell by 2.4 million
barrels for the week ending on 28th March 2014. Gasoline stocks declined by 1.6 million
barrels whereas, distillate inventories rose by 0.5 million barrels for the same period.
CFTC holdings:
==The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the
week to March 25 showed that bullish bets on crude oil rose 2.6 percent in the week through
April 1, snapping three straight losses.

US Oil imports from three top suppliers jumped to highest since 1973 - EIA
==According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil imports from Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia -- the three top foreign oil suppliers to the U.S. market -- were at their highest in since at least 1973.
==Although, imports from top suppliers are high, EIA finds U.S. net crude oil imports declined last year to 7.6 million barrels per day, 10.2 percent fewer imports than the previous year and the lowest level since 1996.
==The group added that Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia produce a medium to heavy grade of crude oil that's suitable for the U.S. refinery sector, in contrast to the lighter grade from in U.S. tight oil formations.
==Canadian crude oil imports last year set a record at 2.5 million bpd, a 3.9 percent increase from 2012.
Outlook
==From a week’s perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade sideways as oil prices have been trading in the band of $3 for last two weeks.
==Tensions between US and Russia has eased down while Chinese slowdown can further exert downside pressure on prices
==Meanwhile, oil investors need to closely watch for the monthly reports from the IEA and the OPEC countries due later in the week as it will indicate expectations of supply and demand in the global market.
==On the other hand sharp downside in prices will be cushioned as money managers have raised their bets on long side for crude and this can act as a positive factor.
==In the Indian markets, prices will take cues from international markets, and rupee movements.
Weekly Technical Levels
==Nymex Crude: Support $99.50/$98.50 Resistance $101.75/$102.30. (CMP: $100.63)
==MCX Crude: Support Rs.5990/5930 Resistance Rs.6115/6150.(CMP: Rs.6047)

Rupee
Weekly Price Performance
==On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee traded on a lower note and declined around 0.3 percent after touching eight month high levels. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from importers.
==Additionally, speculation of intervention of central bank in buying dollars to increase its forex reserves acted as a negative factor. Further, weak market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX continued with downside movement in the currency. Also, plunge in services data of the country for ninth consecutive month added downside pressure on the currency.
==However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented due to sustained inflow of foreign funds into the equity markets coupled with selling of dollars from custodian banks and exporters. Even, favorable manufacturing data from the country and central bank maintaining its key interest rates restricted downside movement in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched a weekly low of 60.39 and closed at 60.08 on Friday.
Capital inflows fell in the last week
==For the month of April 2014, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4892.20 crores ($815.36 million) as on 4th April 2014.
==Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.27087.90 crores ($4465.70 million) as on 4th April 2014.
Outlook
==We expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note in the coming week on the back of sustained inflow of foreign funds into equity markets.
==Additionally, selling of dollars by exporters and custodians banks along with estimates of favorable economic data from the country will continue with positive movement in the Indian Rupee
==However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen due to dollar demand from oil importers and its companies.
==Further, weak market sentiments and strength in the DX will act as a negative factor.
Weekly Technical Levels
==USD-INR SPOT : Support 59.40/58.80 Resistance 60.60/61.20. (CMP: 60.07)
Economic Data to be released during the week:
Trade balance– 11th April’14
Time: Tentative
Previous : -$8.13B
Industrial Output– 11th April’14
Time: 5:30pm
Previous : -0.6 percent, forecast: -0.6 percent
Manufacturing Output– 11th April’14
Time: 5:30pm
Previous : -1.6 percent
53.055.057.059.061.063.065.067.069.0$/INR -Spot

Dollar Index
Weekly Price Performance
==The US Dollar Index (DX) traded higher by 0.3 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
==However, mixed economic data from the country capped sharp gains in the DX. The currency touched a weekly high of 80.77 and closed at 80.57 on Friday.
Economic data comes on a mixed note
==US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew by 0.5 points to 53.7-mark in March as against a rise of 53.2-level in February. Chicago PMI plunged to 55.9-mark in March from 59.8 levels in February.
==US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change rose by 13,000 to 191,000 in March as against a rise of 178,000 in February. Factory Orders gained by 1.6 percent in February from a decline of 1 percent in prior month.
==US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $42.3 billion in February as against a earlier deficit of $39.3 billion a month ago. Unemployment Claims rose by 16,000 to 326,000 for the week ending on 28th March from 310,000 in prior week. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) gained by 1.5 points to 53.1-mark in March with respect to rise of 51.6-level in February.
==US Non-Farm Employment Change declined by 5,000 to 192,000 in March from rise of 197,000 in February. Unemployment Rate unchanged at 6.7 percent in the month of March.
Outlook
==We expect the Dollar Index to trade higher on the back of rise in risk aversion in market sentiments that will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
==Further, forecast for mixed economic data from the country during the week will support an upside in the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
==Dollar Index (DX) : Support 79.90/79.50 Resistance 80.75/81.20. (CMP: 80.36)
Economic Data to be released during the week: JOLTS Job Openings – 8th April’14 Time: 7:30pm Previous : 3.97M, Forecast : 3.99M Producer Price Index (PPI) – 11th April’14 Time: 6:00pm Previous : -0.1 percent, Forecast : 0.1 percent Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 11th April’14 Time: 7:25pm Previous : 80.0, Forecast : 81.2
79.080.081.082.083.084.085.0US Dollar Index

Euro
Weekly Price Performance
==The Euro traded lower by 0.4 percent in the last week taking cues from strength in the DX coupled with weak market sentiments.
==Further, mixed economic data from the region exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.3671 and closed at 1.3702 on Friday.
Economic data from the Euro Zone turns largely in the green
==German Retail Sales gained 1.3 percent in February as against a jump of 1.7 percent in March. Italian Prelim CPI rose by 0.1 percent in March as compared to a fall of 0.1 percent in February. Euro Zone’s CPI Flash Estimate fell to 0.5 percent in March from 0.7 percent in February. German Factory Orders rose by 0.6 percent in February from rise of 0.1 percent a month ago.
==Spanish Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8-mark in March from 52.5 level in February. Italian Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4-mark in March from 52.3 level in the last month. German Unemployment Change fell by 12,000 in February as against a decline of 15,000 in January. Euro zone’s Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 11.9 percent in February.
==Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 16,600 in March as against a fall of 1900 in the last month. Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell marginally to 0.2 percent in Q3 of 2013 from 0.3 percent in previous quarter. Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.2 percent in February with respect to fall of 0.3 percent a month ago.
==Spanish Services PMI rose by 0.3 points to 54-mark in March as against a rise of 53.7-level in February. Italian Services PMI dropped more than expected by 3.4 points to 49.5-mark in March from rise of 52.9-level in February. Euro Zone Final Services PMI slipped marginally to 52.2-level in last month with respect to 52.4-mark in February. Euro Zone Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in February from 1.6 percent a month ago.
Outlook
==The Euro will trade on a mixed note over the week on the back of strength in the DX along with weak market sentiments will exert downside pressure in the currency.
==While on the other hand, expectations of favorable economic data from the region will act as a positive factor for the currency.
Economic Data to be released during the week:
German Trade Balance – 9th April’14
Time: 11:30am
Previous : 17.2B, Forecast : 18.0B
French Industrial Production – 10th April’14
Time: 12:15pm
Previous : -0.2 percent, Forecast : 0.2 percent
ECB Monthly Bulletin – 11th April’14
Time: 1:30pm
Weekly Technical Levels
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.3640/1.3550 Resistance 1.3820/1.3900. (CMP: 1.3713)

1.21.241.281.321.361.4Euro/$ -Spot




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