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mcx tips on mobile Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 20 June 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Up--------- 27300------ 27450---- 27611------ 27750--- 27900
Spot Gold -----------------------------Up ---------1297 --------1304 ----1312 --------1319------ 1326
Gold Hedge NCDEX ---July----------- Up--------- 25110------ 25250---- 25398------ 25520 ---25660
Silver------- MCX ------July----------- Up --------43600 -------44000---- 44311------ 44700-- 45000
Spot Silver------------------------------ Up--------- 20.30------- 20.60----- 20.67----- 20.80---- 21.00
Silver Hedge NCDEX ---June---------- Up ---------3950 --------3990------ 4018------ 4050----- 4080
Base Metals


LME Copper ---------------------------Up ---------6640--------- 6680------ 6730------ 6760 ----6790
Copper------ MCX -----June---------- Up--------- 403---------- 406-------- 408.95---- 411------ 413
Zinc ----------MCX -----June---------- Up ---------127.50 ---128.50----- 129.40--- 130.50--- 131.50
Lead--------- MCX -----June ----------Up --------125.50----- 126.50------- 127.40-- 128.50-- 129.50
Aluminium ----MCX -----June---------- Up-------- 110.00----- 111.00 ------111.85----112.80-- 113.50
Nickel -------MCX ------June ----------Sideways-- 1095 -------1105 -------1115.70--- 1130 -----1140
Energy
Crude Oil ----MCX ------July ------------Up------- 6320 -------6360 --------6410------ 6450 ---6500
Crude Oil -----NYMEX ---July ----------Up -------105.20 -----105.80 -----106.70--- 107.30-- 108.20
Brent Crude Oil MCX------ July ----------Up -------6580 -------6620 -------6676 ----6710------ 6760
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX ---July---------Up -------113.30----- 114.00----- 114.92---- 115.60 --116.40
Natural Gas---- MCX -------June-------- Sideways--- 273 ------275 -------277 --------280------- 282

Content
Overview
Precious Metals
Energy
Base Metals
Important Events for today

Overview

US Unemployment Claims fell to 312,000 for w/e 13th June 2014.
Utilities added 113 bcf Natural Gas into storage last week.
UK’s Retail Sales declined by 0.5 percent in the last month.
LME Copper inventories fell by 0.4 percent to 160,000 tonnes.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 17.8-mark in June.

International Commodities
Bullion
Gold

Bullion rose to its highest level in more than two months as Federal Reserve’s lack of commitment to raise interest rates and continues tensions in the Middle East acted as a positive factor. U.S. dollar eased after the Fed signalled on Wednesday it will stick with a near-zero interest rate policy to support the economy, disappointing traders who had bet on hints of policy tightening.
On the MCX, gold prices rose by around 3 percent in line with strength in international markets and closed at Rs27611/10gms.

Silver
Silver gained 4.1 percent to $20.68 an ounce, having earlier hit $20.91, a three-month high. It notched its biggest one-day gain in four months. Silver prices are moving taking strong cues from gold prices as Fed signals that its near zero interest rate policy is going to continue for longer period of time.
On the MCX, silver price rose by 4.5 percent and closed at Rs.44311/kg

Outlook Bullion
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade positive continuing the run-up in the previous session. Fed’s lack of interest to raise interest rates and slow momentum in the US economy has acted as a trigger for traders to push the precious metals higher.
On the MCX, gold and silver price are expected to trade positive in line with strength in international markets.

Energy
Crude Oil

WTI crude rose on Thursday while Brent rose to nine month high as the United States said it would send military advisers to Iraq, raising concerns about the escalating conflict. Government forces continued to battle Sunni militants for control of Iraq's biggest refinery as U.S. President Barack Obama said the United States will send up to 300 military advisers to Iraq to combat the extremist insurgency.
The Baiji refinery near Tikrit, 200 km (130 miles) north of the Iraqi capital, remained under siege as troops loyal to the Shi'ite-led government held off insurgents from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and its allies who stormed the perimeter, threatening national energy supplies.
On the MCX, crude prices rose marginally to close at Rs.6381/bbl

Natural gas inventory update
U.S. natural gas futures fell 1.6 percent on Thursday, hitting the lowest level in a week after the government reported yet another bigger-than-expected storage build. Utilities added 113 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, a record sixth consecutive weekly injection above 100 bcf.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a positive note as violence in Iraq has escalated further with militants taking control over the biggest refinery raising concerns on the supply side. It is Iraq story that is dominating the crude markets and this will continue unless there is a full proof solution to the fight between Shiaas and Sunnis.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note in line with strength in international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note yesterday taking cues from favorable manufacturing and employment data from the US.
Also, upbeat market sentiments coupled with decline in inventories acted as a positive factor. Further, jump in industrial expectations data from UK supported gains.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher despite Rupee appreciation.

Copper
LME Copper prices traded higher by 0.2 percent yesterday and traded near two week high on the back of optimism regarding the two biggest consumers, the US and China. Also, weakness in the DX along with upbeat market sentiments supported gains.
In addition to that, favorable economic data from the US and UK acted as positive factors. Further, decline of 0.4 percent in inventories to 160,000 tonnes added an upside to prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $6745/tonne and closed at $6734.5/tonne on Thursday.
MCX Copper prices rose by 0.4 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs.409.8/kg before closing at Rs.409/kg in the last trading session.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade on a positive note today on the back of estimates of favorable economic data from the Euro Zone. Also, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat market sentiments will support gains in prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.

Important Events for Today
Indicator ----------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
German PPI m/m-------------- Euro ----11:30am - ------------0.2% -0.1% Medium
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks---- Japan -----12:05pm ------------------------ - - High
Current Account-------------- Euro----- 1:30pm --------------- 19.4B 18.8B Medium
Public Sector Net Borrowing-- UK------ 2:00pm ----------------- 11.8B 9.6B Medium
ECOFIN Meetings------------ Euro------ All Day ------------------------ - - Medium





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