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MCX Market Data Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 25 June 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Sideways-----27450 ---27600 -----27731 -----27900 ---28000
Spot Gold -----------------------------Up -----------1299 ------1306 -----1312 ------1320 -------1325
Gold Hedge ---NCDEX ---July -------Up ------------25290 ---25430 ---25556 ------25710 ---25800
Silver --MCX ---July -----------------Sideways ------43700 ---44100 ---44494 ------44900 ---45200
Spot Silver ----------------------------Up ------------20.30 ---20.60 ---20.73 ---20.90 ---21.10
Silver Hedge ---NCDEX ---June -----Up -------------3990 ---4030 ---4066 ---4100 ---4130
Base Metals


LME Copper -------------------------Up ---6770 ---6830 ---6898 ---6930 ---6980
Copper --MCX ---June --------------Up ---411 ---415 ---418.55 ---421 ---424
Zinc --MCX ---June -----------------Up ---128.50 ---129.50 ---130.55 ---131.50 ---132.50
Lead --MCX ---June ----------------Up ---128.00 ---129.00 ---129.80 ---131.00 ---132.00
Aluminium --MCX ---June -----------Up ---110.00 ---111.00 ---112.15 ---113.00 ---114.00
Nickel --MCX ---June --------------Sideways ---1070 ---1080 ---1091.10 ---1101 ---1113
Energy
Crude Oil --MCX ---July -----------Up ---6300 ---6350 ---6400 ---6450 ---6500
Crude Oil ---NYMEX ---Aug ------Up ---105.00 ---105.90 ---106.74 ---107.50 ---108.40
Crude Oil ---NCDEX ---July --------Up ---6315 ---6365 ---6415 ---6465.00 ---6565.00
Brent Crude ---Oil --MCX ---July ---Up ---6570 ---6620 ---6676 ---6720 ---6770
Brent Crude Oil -NYMEX ---Aug ---Up ---112.40 ---113.30 ---114.18 ---115.00 ---115.90
Brent Crude Oil -NCDEX ---July ---Up ---6816 ---6866 ---6916.00 ---6966 ---7016
Natural Gas --MCX ---June ----------Sideways ---267 ---270 ---273.8 ---276 ---279



Overview
US CB Consumer Confidence gained to 85.2-mark in month of June.
US crude oil inventories expected to decline by 1.6 mn bbl - Reuters.
German Ifo Business Climate drop to 109.7-mark in current month.
UK’s BBA Mortgage Approvals was at 41,800 Pounds in May.
US New Home Sales grew to 504,000 in the previous month.

Bullion
Gold

Soft German business sentiment data and losses in Equity market led spot gold prices to a two month peak. The yellow metal climbed as investors switched out of equities after Germany's Ifo index of business sentiment fell more than expected in June. Gold later pared gains on encouraging U.S. new home sales and better consumer confidence data.
On the MCX, gold prices rose by 0.19 percent and closed at Rs.27731/10 gms.
Silver
Gains in bullion and escalation of violence in Iraq led spot silver prices to gain by 0.2 percent. However strength in the dollar index and weakness in the base metals pack capped the rally.
On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.1 percent in line with strength in international markets and closed at Rs.44494/kg

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways as better housing data from the US and the consumer confidence data which represent two third of the US economy marked a positive sentiment which in turn can pressurize gold prices. On the other hand, escalating tensions in Iraq will led to an increasing bullions safe haven appeal acting as a positive factor.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade sideways in line with international markets.

Energy
Crude Oil

Continued fighting in Iraq, supply disruptions in Libya supported Brent prices while profit booking at higher levels in WTI crude led to decline in prices by 0.1 percent. Although refineries in the southern regions, which produce the bulk of Iraq's oil exports, were unaffected, fighting in OPEC's second-largest producer to continue to support prices.
Government-led forces continued to fight Islamist insurgents for control of Iraq's biggest oil refinery on Tuesday. The refinery, a 300,000-barrels-per-day facility in Baiji, north of Baghdad, was shut down last week and has been under siege since. In Libya, an oil port that had reopened over the weekend closed again. The country's production is around 270,000 bpd, a fraction of the 1.6 million bpd it produced before the 2011 civil war.
On the MCX, crude prices declined by 0.1 percent and closed at Rs.6400/bbl.

API inventory update
The API released its weekly inventories report last night at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories rose by 4 million barrels for the week ending on 20th June 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.2 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 0.253 million barrels for the same time period.
EIA inventory forecast
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 1.6 million barrels for the week ending on 20th June 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 1 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase by 0.9 million barrels for the same time period.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a positive note as Iraq conflict still bothers energy markets with supply constraints possible out of the region. Militants have taken control over Baiji the biggest oil refinery in Iraq raising concerns over internal supply in the region. There is no threat to supply until militants take control over southern Iraq where major oil fields and infrastructure is located. On the flip side, the API inventories last night reported crude build up of around 4 million barrels. Meanwhile, the EIA report due tonight is expected to show a drawdown supporting crude prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note in line with strength in international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a mixed note yesterday on the back of mixed global market sentiments. Further, weak business climate data from Germany acted as a negative factor.
However, positive momentum gained owing to favorable economic data from the US. Also, decline in LME inventories coupled with weakness in the DX supported gains.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher in line with international markets.

Copper
LME Copper prices gained marginally yesterday taking cues from positive economic data from the US. Also, weakness in the DX along with 0.5 percent in inventories supported gains.
Gains were capped as China’s imports of refined copper fell 17 percent to 282,969 tons in May. Also, speculation of further drop as the Qingdao investigation may curb purchases from abroad by traders who use commodities as collateral to get loans gained traction. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $6895/tonne and closed at $6877/tonne on Tuesday.
MCX Copper prices gained 0.1 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs.419.5/kg before closing at Rs.418.6/kg in the last trading session.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade sideways today on the back of favorable consumer climate data from Germany that will support gains in prices.
However, weak imports data from China along with estimates of weak GDP data from the US will act as a negative factor. In addition, weak market sentiments and strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.




Important Events for Today
 
Indicator ---------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
GfK German Consumer Climate ---Euro -----11:30am ------------- 8.6 8.5 Medium
Nationwide HPI m/m --------------UK------- 25th -2nd ------ 0.7% 0.7% Medium
CBI Realized Sales ----------------UK------ 3:30pm ------------- 25 16 Medium
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m US--------6:00pm ------------ 0.3% 0.3% High
Durable Goods Orders m/m------ US------- 6:00pm ---------- (-0.1%) 0.6% Medium
Final GDP q/q-------------------- US -------6:00pm-------- - (-1.7%) (-1.0%) Medium
Crude Oil Inventories------------- US --------8:00pm --------- (-1.2M) (-0.6M) Medium


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