Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 16 July 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Sideways----27400----27500----27676----27780----27900
Spot Gold-----------------------------Sideways----1288----1293----1301----1306----1312
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July------Sideways----24780----24870----25033----25120----25236
Silver----MCX----Sept---------------Sideways----43900----44200----44577----44800----45100
Spot Silver---------------------------Sideways----20.40----20.60----20.77----20.85----21.05
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3980----4000----4044----4060----4090
Base Metals
LME Copper-------------------------Sideways----7030----7067----7112----7150----7183
Copper----MCX----Aug------------Sideways----425----427----429.7----432----434
Zinc----MCX----July---------------Sideways----135.00----136.00----137.25----138.00----139.00
Lead----MCX----July----------------Down----128.70----129.70----130.75----131.70----132.70
Aluminium----MCX----July----------Sideways----116.00----117.00----117.95----119.00----120.00
Nickel----MCX----July---------------Sideways----1135----1145----1155.4----1165----1175
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July-----------Up----6000----6040----6088----6130----6180
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Sideways----100.00----100.60----101.49----102.10----103.00
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July-----------Up----6010----6050----6100----6140----6230
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----------Sideways----6480----6520----6570----6610----6660
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----105.70----106.30----107.17----107.80----108.60
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6320----6360----6409----6450----6500
Natural Gas----MCX----July-------------Sideways----245----247----249.1----251----253
International Commodities
Overview
Bullion
Gold
After two consecutive days of sharp declines, Gold rebounded on Wednesday as sharp declines gave an opportunity for bargain buying supporting prices. However, strong U.S. economic outlook and fears that the Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates limited gains for the safe haven. U.S. manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in more than two years in the second quarter, suggesting the economy was regaining enough momentum to lift growth throughout the year.
The metal broke below $1,300 for the first time since June 19 on Tuesday after a Fed report showed its balance sheet would top out at $4.5 trillion when its bond-buying program ends in October - a timeline consistent with what Fed policymakers had said previously. Gold's gains also fizzled after Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Wednesday the central bank is "likely" to start raising interest rates gradually early next year and should begin shrinking its massive balance sheet in October to signal its confidence in the recovery.
On the MCX, gold prices gained marginally by 0.1 percent and closed at Rs.27676/10 gms.
Silver
Spot silver prices rose by 0.1 percent taking cues from strength in gold prices .However, strength in the dollar index and weakness in the base metals complex capped the rally.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 0.6 percent and closed at Rs.44577/kg in contrary to the gains in international markets.
Outlook Bullion
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as prices have been seesawing between gains and losses in the past few sessions. On one hand, the optimism in the US economy is brightening the growth trajectory while comments from the Fed policy maker Fed fisher hinted that interest rates might rise gradually early next year can exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways in today’s trade. Meanwhile, the housing data set to be released from the US tonight will set the tone for prices in the coming session.
Energy
Crude Oil
WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 1.5 percent on Wednesday after government data showed the country's crude stockpiles fell sharply last week.
Oil prices receive some support from strong Chinese economic data earlier in the session. The country's economy expanded at a 7.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter as a result of government stimulus measures, signaling expectations of increasing demand. China's growth figures, however, were offset by news of rising supplies from Libya, where oil production has recovered to nearly 600,000 bpd.
Libya's National Oil Corp has offered the first crude oil from its major eastern Ras Lanuf terminal for end-July loading, two weeks after a rebel group agreed to end its nearly one-year blockade of the country's oil facilities.
EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 7.5 million barrels for the week ending on 11th July 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.171 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on optimism in the US economy, brightening demand prospects for crude coupled with strong growth in China as the GDP expanded at the rate of 7.5 percent.
On the contrary, Libya’s crude exports are gaining traction ensuring that oil markets are amply supplied with no major supply threats.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals (except aluminium) largely declined on Wednesday as jitters over a possible bond default in China's construction sector triggered a round of profit taking.
A Chinese builder has warned its investors it may not be able to repay a $65 million debt due next week, possibly becoming the first borrower to default in the country's largest bond market and highlighting concerns over the construction sector.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded largely on a negative note wherein most of the pack declined by more than 1 percent.
Copper
LME Copper prices traded declined by 1 percent on Wednesday as the bond default in China’s construction sector raises alarms on the demand side for copper.
Although, data from China indicated optimism as China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial production grew, many doubt the recovery in China, the biggest consumer of base metals. In addition, decline in industrial production data from the US acted as a negative factor.
MCX Copper prices declined by 1.2 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs.428.7/kg before closing at Rs.429.7/kg on Tuesday.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade sideways as concerns regarding the bond default in China’s construction sector along with estimates of unfavorable Philly Fed manufacturing data will exert downside pressure on prices. On the contrary, hopes of improved US housing data in the evening session will act as a positive factor for prices.
MCX Copper prices will trade sideways today taking cues from international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator-------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
CPI y/y---------------------------- Euro ------2:30pm - 0.5% 0.5% Medium
Core CPI y/y -----------------------Euro------ 2:30pm - 0.8% 0.8% Medium
Building Permits --------------------US-------- 6:00pm - 1.04M 0.99M High
Unemployment Claims-------------- US --------6:00pm - 310K 304K High
Housing Starts ----------------------US-------- 6:00pm - 1.02M 1.00M Medium
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index------ US -------7:30pm - 15.6 17.8 High
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Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Sideways----27400----27500----27676----27780----27900
Spot Gold-----------------------------Sideways----1288----1293----1301----1306----1312
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July------Sideways----24780----24870----25033----25120----25236
Silver----MCX----Sept---------------Sideways----43900----44200----44577----44800----45100
Spot Silver---------------------------Sideways----20.40----20.60----20.77----20.85----21.05
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3980----4000----4044----4060----4090
Base Metals
LME Copper-------------------------Sideways----7030----7067----7112----7150----7183
Copper----MCX----Aug------------Sideways----425----427----429.7----432----434
Zinc----MCX----July---------------Sideways----135.00----136.00----137.25----138.00----139.00
Lead----MCX----July----------------Down----128.70----129.70----130.75----131.70----132.70
Aluminium----MCX----July----------Sideways----116.00----117.00----117.95----119.00----120.00
Nickel----MCX----July---------------Sideways----1135----1145----1155.4----1165----1175
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July-----------Up----6000----6040----6088----6130----6180
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Sideways----100.00----100.60----101.49----102.10----103.00
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July-----------Up----6010----6050----6100----6140----6230
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----------Sideways----6480----6520----6570----6610----6660
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----105.70----106.30----107.17----107.80----108.60
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6320----6360----6409----6450----6500
Natural Gas----MCX----July-------------Sideways----245----247----249.1----251----253
International Commodities
Overview
- India’s Trade Deficit rose to 11 months high at $11.76 billion in June.
- US crude oil inventories declined by 7.5 million barrels last week.
- UK’s Unemployment Rate fell to 6.5 percent in the month of May.
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) was at 0.4 percent in last month.
- Euro Zone Trade Balance at surplus of 15.3 billion in May.
Bullion
Gold
After two consecutive days of sharp declines, Gold rebounded on Wednesday as sharp declines gave an opportunity for bargain buying supporting prices. However, strong U.S. economic outlook and fears that the Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates limited gains for the safe haven. U.S. manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in more than two years in the second quarter, suggesting the economy was regaining enough momentum to lift growth throughout the year.
The metal broke below $1,300 for the first time since June 19 on Tuesday after a Fed report showed its balance sheet would top out at $4.5 trillion when its bond-buying program ends in October - a timeline consistent with what Fed policymakers had said previously. Gold's gains also fizzled after Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Wednesday the central bank is "likely" to start raising interest rates gradually early next year and should begin shrinking its massive balance sheet in October to signal its confidence in the recovery.
On the MCX, gold prices gained marginally by 0.1 percent and closed at Rs.27676/10 gms.
Silver
Spot silver prices rose by 0.1 percent taking cues from strength in gold prices .However, strength in the dollar index and weakness in the base metals complex capped the rally.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 0.6 percent and closed at Rs.44577/kg in contrary to the gains in international markets.
Outlook Bullion
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as prices have been seesawing between gains and losses in the past few sessions. On one hand, the optimism in the US economy is brightening the growth trajectory while comments from the Fed policy maker Fed fisher hinted that interest rates might rise gradually early next year can exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways in today’s trade. Meanwhile, the housing data set to be released from the US tonight will set the tone for prices in the coming session.
Energy
Crude Oil
WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 1.5 percent on Wednesday after government data showed the country's crude stockpiles fell sharply last week.
Oil prices receive some support from strong Chinese economic data earlier in the session. The country's economy expanded at a 7.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter as a result of government stimulus measures, signaling expectations of increasing demand. China's growth figures, however, were offset by news of rising supplies from Libya, where oil production has recovered to nearly 600,000 bpd.
Libya's National Oil Corp has offered the first crude oil from its major eastern Ras Lanuf terminal for end-July loading, two weeks after a rebel group agreed to end its nearly one-year blockade of the country's oil facilities.
EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 7.5 million barrels for the week ending on 11th July 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.171 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on optimism in the US economy, brightening demand prospects for crude coupled with strong growth in China as the GDP expanded at the rate of 7.5 percent.
On the contrary, Libya’s crude exports are gaining traction ensuring that oil markets are amply supplied with no major supply threats.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals (except aluminium) largely declined on Wednesday as jitters over a possible bond default in China's construction sector triggered a round of profit taking.
A Chinese builder has warned its investors it may not be able to repay a $65 million debt due next week, possibly becoming the first borrower to default in the country's largest bond market and highlighting concerns over the construction sector.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded largely on a negative note wherein most of the pack declined by more than 1 percent.
Copper
LME Copper prices traded declined by 1 percent on Wednesday as the bond default in China’s construction sector raises alarms on the demand side for copper.
Although, data from China indicated optimism as China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial production grew, many doubt the recovery in China, the biggest consumer of base metals. In addition, decline in industrial production data from the US acted as a negative factor.
MCX Copper prices declined by 1.2 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs.428.7/kg before closing at Rs.429.7/kg on Tuesday.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade sideways as concerns regarding the bond default in China’s construction sector along with estimates of unfavorable Philly Fed manufacturing data will exert downside pressure on prices. On the contrary, hopes of improved US housing data in the evening session will act as a positive factor for prices.
MCX Copper prices will trade sideways today taking cues from international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator-------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
CPI y/y---------------------------- Euro ------2:30pm - 0.5% 0.5% Medium
Core CPI y/y -----------------------Euro------ 2:30pm - 0.8% 0.8% Medium
Building Permits --------------------US-------- 6:00pm - 1.04M 0.99M High
Unemployment Claims-------------- US --------6:00pm - 310K 304K High
Housing Starts ----------------------US-------- 6:00pm - 1.02M 1.00M Medium
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index------ US -------7:30pm - 15.6 17.8 High
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( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
