Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 18 July 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Up----27900----28000----28199----28350----28500
Spot----Gold--------------------------Up----1301----1306----1315----1322----1329
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----July----Up----25210----25300----25481----25610----25750
Silver----MCX----Sept---------------Up----44800----45200----45579----45900----46200
Spot----Silver-------------------------Up----20.60----20.90----21.08----21.20----21.40
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Up----4080----4100----4135----4160----4180
Base Metals
LME----Copper----------------------Sideways----6930----6960----7030----7060----7100
Copper----MCX----Aug---------------Sideways----426----428----431.8----434----436
Zinc----MCX----July------------------Sideways----137.00----138.00----138.85----140.00----141.00
Lead----MCX----July-----------------Down----129.70----130.70----131.70----132.70----133.70
Aluminium----MCX----July----------Sideways----117.50----118.50----119.65----120.50----121.50
Nickel----MCX----July--------------Sideways----1140----1150----1162.1----1170----1180
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July---------------Up----6140----6180----6221----6270----6320
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug------------Up----102.40----103.10----103.83----104.60----105.40
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July--------------Up----6090----6130----6176----6220----6320
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug------------Up----6480----6520----6570----6610----6660
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Up----107.20----107.80----108.55----109.30----110.10
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July--------Up----6460----6500----6550----6590----6640
Natural Gas----MCX----July---------------Down----232----236----238.6----241----245
International Commodities
Overview
Bullion
Gold
Spot gold prices gained by around 1.4 percent on Thursday as investors sought shelter in the precious metal on fears of further turmoil after news that a Malaysian passenger jetliner had been downed in Ukraine. Earlier, safe-haven bids had already boosted bullion prices on new U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia, fresh on the heels of news that a Ukrainian fighter plane had been shot down over eastern Ukraine. Gold rallied $20 per ounce in about 40 minutes and the S&P 500 equities index tumbled after the Malaysian airliner was brought down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 295 people aboard and sharply raising the stakes in a conflict between Kiev and pro-Moscow rebels in which Russia and the West back opposing sides.
Before the Malaysian jetliner news, precious metal prices were higher on U.S. President Barack Obama's move to impose sanctions on some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time over Moscow's failure to curb violence in Ukraine.
On the MCX, gold prices rose by around 1.8 percent taking cues from strong international markets and closed at Rs.28199/10gms.
Silver
Gains in gold prices are acting as a boon for silver prices as the grey metal largely moves in tandem with gold. A tension in the Ukrainian peninsula and fresh sanctions by the US on Russia is appealing silver as an asset class and the speculative bets seem to be rising.
On the MCX, silver prices traded largely positive tracking strong cues from international markets and closed at Rs.45579/kg.
Outlook Bullion
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of tensions in the Ukrainian peninsula and fresh round of sanctions imposed by US on Russia. Housing data released last night did not come as per expectations appealing bullions safe haven appeal in turn acting as a positive factor for prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Oil prices gained on Thursday, extending their rebound from a weeks-long decline as new U.S. sanctions announced on Wednesday took aim at some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time, including Rosneft, the largest oil producer.
Gains accelerated over the afternoon as news spread of a Malaysian airliner crash in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are fighting pro-Moscow rebels. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said the jet was "blown out of the sky" and Ukraine accused "terrorists" of shooting it down.
On the MCX, crude oil prices rose by around 2.2 percent and closed at Rs.6221/bbl.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices on the NYMEX declined by more than 3 percent on moderating climate in the US and inventory additions in storage more than the market expectations.
Utilities have added 107Bcf of gas in the previous week as against previous addition of 93Bcf acting as a negative factor for prices.
On the MCX, NG prices declined by more than 4 percent on weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.238.60/Mmbtu.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note continuing its gains from the previous session. Escalating tensions in Ukraine coupled with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US will push crude prices higher.
Besides, incremental demand for crude in the US is visible in drawdown in inventories for continuous two weeks in a row is acting as a positive factor.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME largely gained on Thursday as the manufacturing data from the US turned out to be positive despite expectations of it slowing down. Aluminium prices rose to a 16-month high yesterday as LME inventories slump to the lowest in 22 months.
However, sharp gains were capped on the back of unfavorable housing data from the US. Also, concerns regarding the health of construction sector in China after Huatong Road & Bridge Group warned that it might not be able to repay a $65 million debt due next week exerted downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded on a positive note taking cues from international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices traded gained marginally yesterday owing to rising optimism after more than expected Philly Fed manufacturing number. Also, decline in LME inventories by 0.4 percent supported gains.
However, Anglo American, one of the largest mining companies, reported higher copper output for the first half of the year, thereby acting as a negative factor for prices. In addition, announcement by the Chinese construction company that it may default has spurred concerns regarding the demand outlook. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7080/tonne and closed at $7069/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices rose by 0.5 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs.432.1/kg before closing at Rs.431.8/kg on Thursday.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade sideways as Chinese default concerns along with rising Copper output will exert downside pressure on prices. On the contrary, expectations of gain in Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment in the evening session along with improving manufacturing outlook in the US will act as a positive factor for prices.
MCX Copper prices will trade sideways today taking cues from international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator----------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes------- Japan 5:20am - -------------------- - Medium
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment--------- US 7:25pm ------------- 83.5 82.5 High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Up----27900----28000----28199----28350----28500
Spot----Gold--------------------------Up----1301----1306----1315----1322----1329
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----July----Up----25210----25300----25481----25610----25750
Silver----MCX----Sept---------------Up----44800----45200----45579----45900----46200
Spot----Silver-------------------------Up----20.60----20.90----21.08----21.20----21.40
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Up----4080----4100----4135----4160----4180
Base Metals
LME----Copper----------------------Sideways----6930----6960----7030----7060----7100
Copper----MCX----Aug---------------Sideways----426----428----431.8----434----436
Zinc----MCX----July------------------Sideways----137.00----138.00----138.85----140.00----141.00
Lead----MCX----July-----------------Down----129.70----130.70----131.70----132.70----133.70
Aluminium----MCX----July----------Sideways----117.50----118.50----119.65----120.50----121.50
Nickel----MCX----July--------------Sideways----1140----1150----1162.1----1170----1180
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July---------------Up----6140----6180----6221----6270----6320
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug------------Up----102.40----103.10----103.83----104.60----105.40
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July--------------Up----6090----6130----6176----6220----6320
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug------------Up----6480----6520----6570----6610----6660
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Up----107.20----107.80----108.55----109.30----110.10
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July--------Up----6460----6500----6550----6590----6640
Natural Gas----MCX----July---------------Down----232----236----238.6----241----245
International Commodities
Overview
- US Building Permits was at 0.96 million in the last month.
- Sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil company boosted crude oil prices.
- Euro Zone CPI unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of June.
- Renewed Ukraine concerns spurred safe haven status of gold.
- S Philly Fed Manufacturing Index gained to 23.9-mark in July.
Bullion
Gold
Spot gold prices gained by around 1.4 percent on Thursday as investors sought shelter in the precious metal on fears of further turmoil after news that a Malaysian passenger jetliner had been downed in Ukraine. Earlier, safe-haven bids had already boosted bullion prices on new U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia, fresh on the heels of news that a Ukrainian fighter plane had been shot down over eastern Ukraine. Gold rallied $20 per ounce in about 40 minutes and the S&P 500 equities index tumbled after the Malaysian airliner was brought down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 295 people aboard and sharply raising the stakes in a conflict between Kiev and pro-Moscow rebels in which Russia and the West back opposing sides.
Before the Malaysian jetliner news, precious metal prices were higher on U.S. President Barack Obama's move to impose sanctions on some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time over Moscow's failure to curb violence in Ukraine.
On the MCX, gold prices rose by around 1.8 percent taking cues from strong international markets and closed at Rs.28199/10gms.
Silver
Gains in gold prices are acting as a boon for silver prices as the grey metal largely moves in tandem with gold. A tension in the Ukrainian peninsula and fresh sanctions by the US on Russia is appealing silver as an asset class and the speculative bets seem to be rising.
On the MCX, silver prices traded largely positive tracking strong cues from international markets and closed at Rs.45579/kg.
Outlook Bullion
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of tensions in the Ukrainian peninsula and fresh round of sanctions imposed by US on Russia. Housing data released last night did not come as per expectations appealing bullions safe haven appeal in turn acting as a positive factor for prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Oil prices gained on Thursday, extending their rebound from a weeks-long decline as new U.S. sanctions announced on Wednesday took aim at some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time, including Rosneft, the largest oil producer.
Gains accelerated over the afternoon as news spread of a Malaysian airliner crash in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are fighting pro-Moscow rebels. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said the jet was "blown out of the sky" and Ukraine accused "terrorists" of shooting it down.
On the MCX, crude oil prices rose by around 2.2 percent and closed at Rs.6221/bbl.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices on the NYMEX declined by more than 3 percent on moderating climate in the US and inventory additions in storage more than the market expectations.
Utilities have added 107Bcf of gas in the previous week as against previous addition of 93Bcf acting as a negative factor for prices.
On the MCX, NG prices declined by more than 4 percent on weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.238.60/Mmbtu.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note continuing its gains from the previous session. Escalating tensions in Ukraine coupled with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US will push crude prices higher.
Besides, incremental demand for crude in the US is visible in drawdown in inventories for continuous two weeks in a row is acting as a positive factor.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME largely gained on Thursday as the manufacturing data from the US turned out to be positive despite expectations of it slowing down. Aluminium prices rose to a 16-month high yesterday as LME inventories slump to the lowest in 22 months.
However, sharp gains were capped on the back of unfavorable housing data from the US. Also, concerns regarding the health of construction sector in China after Huatong Road & Bridge Group warned that it might not be able to repay a $65 million debt due next week exerted downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded on a positive note taking cues from international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices traded gained marginally yesterday owing to rising optimism after more than expected Philly Fed manufacturing number. Also, decline in LME inventories by 0.4 percent supported gains.
However, Anglo American, one of the largest mining companies, reported higher copper output for the first half of the year, thereby acting as a negative factor for prices. In addition, announcement by the Chinese construction company that it may default has spurred concerns regarding the demand outlook. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7080/tonne and closed at $7069/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices rose by 0.5 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs.432.1/kg before closing at Rs.431.8/kg on Thursday.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade sideways as Chinese default concerns along with rising Copper output will exert downside pressure on prices. On the contrary, expectations of gain in Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment in the evening session along with improving manufacturing outlook in the US will act as a positive factor for prices.
MCX Copper prices will trade sideways today taking cues from international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator----------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes------- Japan 5:20am - -------------------- - Medium
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment--------- US 7:25pm ------------- 83.5 82.5 High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
