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Commodities Weekly Technical Report
07.07.2014 to 11.07.2014
Content
Weekly Technical Levels
Strategy/Recommendations


MCX GOLD AUGUST (CMP – 27,557 / $ 1,319)


MCX Gold August as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 27,632 levels and as expected during this week prices rallied sharply and made a high of 27,940 levels following with breached the high of last two week’s but could not able to sustain on resistance of 28,000 levels and corrected from those levels towards the low of 27,363 levels. In the week prices have corrected 0.42% lower and finally closed at 27,557 levels. Technically as per the candlestick pattern prices have formed “Doji candlestick with bearish closing” indicating indecisiveness with bearish activities.
For this week we expect gold prices to find support in the range of 27,250 – 27,200 levels. Trading consistently below 27,200 levels would lead towards the strong support at 26,800 levels and then finally towards the major support at 26,500 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 28,000 – 28,100 levels. Trading consistently above 28,100 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 28,400 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 28,900 levels.

Gold
Weekly Price Performance

• Spot gold prices rose by around 1 percent on Monday, posting its second consecutive
quarterly gain as increasing geo-political tensions boosted its safe have appeal.
• For the quarter, gold has gained about 3.5 percent after a nearly 7 percent gain in the
first quarter, its first two-quarter rise since 2011, as tensions over Ukraine and Iraq
lifted its appeal as a hedge.
• In addition, technical buying, bargain hunting and drop in dollar index to multi week
low prompted buying interest in the yellow metal
• Weak dollar and continuous inflows in to SPDR gold trust at the start of the last week
acted as a positive factor
• In the International markets, gold prices gained by around 0.04 percent in the last
week. Gold prices touched a weekly high of $1327.39/oz before closing at
$1320.05/oz on Friday.
• In the Indian markets, gold prices declined marginally by around 0.04 percent in the
last week. Gold prices touched a weekly low of Rs.2736310 gms before closing at
Rs.27557/10 gms on Friday.
SPDR Gold Holdings
• Last week, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust gained by 11.37 tonnes to 796.39 tonnes.
• On a year-to-date basis, holdings have declined by 1.83 tonnes, or 0.23 percent.
Chinese gold imports could fall by up to 400 tonnes this year
• Chinese gold imports could fall by up to 400 tonnes this year as the government
tightens controls on gold financing deals and domestic demand softens, a leading
precious metals consultant said on Thursday.
• Philip Klapwijk, director of the Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights, said the
Chinese authorities are once again moving to rein in abuse of gold lending, after a
crackdown on commodity financing last year.
India Plans to swap old gold with purer metal
•A plan by India's central bank to swap old gold in its vaults for purer metal abroad that it could pledge or sell would have the added benefits of reducing gold imports and easing pressure on the balance of payments.
•The Reserve Bank of India would sell relatively impure gold from its own vaults - some dating back to before independence - and receive the equivalent worth of purer yellow metal delivered to the Bank of England, under a scheme outlined on Wednesday. CFTC holdings:
•The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to June 24th showed that the bullion investors have increased their net longs positions in comex by 22573 contracts to 136929 contract. Outlook
•From a week’s point of view, we expect gold prices to lower as positive Non farm payrolls data has brightened the prospects of US economy
•Optimism in the US economy continues to gains the highest grounds as the spate of economic data sets indicates growth in the country
•Reports from China that gold imports could fall in 2014 will also exert downside pressure
•On the contrary, renewed interest in the investment demand as indicated in addition of gold holdings in the SPDR gold trust creates a positive sentiment for prices to move higher
•In the Indian markets, gold prices are expected to trade lower in line with weakness in international markets and can possibly head lower towards Rs.27000 mark.

MCX / Spot Gold Trading levels for the week
Trend: Sideways Down
S1 – 27,200 / $ 1,300 R1 - 28,000 / $ 1,340
S2 - 26,800 / $ 1,280 R2 - 28,400 / $ 1,360

Weekly Recommendation: Trend updated for-Jul/09/2014.CMP-27519 Overall trend of the Gold is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Gold is moving sideways The Gold is now trading in overbought level. The Gold is now trading in overbought level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal .In last 1 month volatality is very less Buy the Gold above 28052 or buy with strict stop at 26583. The Gold is now trading in overbought level. The Gold is now trading in overbought level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Gold is in HOLD SHORT position.Positionally Support for the Gold is 26976-.Resistance for the Gold is 27630-27698-27742-28006-28572
Currently Gold is in HOLD SHORT position Gold is moving sideways so short term investor better to buy if close above 27800.0 closing below 27363.0 Sell will happen. The oscillator is showing BUY signal



MCX SILVER SEPT (CMP – 45,048 / $ 21.15)


MCX Silver Sept as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 44,748 levels and prices made a low of 44,300 levels. During this week as expected prices rallied sharply higher towards the high of 45,375 levels. At the end of the week prices corrected towards the low of 44,300 levels and finally closed 0.11% lower at 45,048 levels. This week prices closed below the previous week’s closing of 45,097 levels.
For
this week we expect silver prices to find support in the range of 44,300 – 44,000 levels. Trading consistently below 44,000 levels would lead towards the strong support at 43,200 levels and then finally towards the major support at 42,700 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 45,500 – 45,600 levels. Trading consistently above 45,600 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 46,600 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 47,500 levels.

Weekly Price Performance
• Silver prices rose largely tracking gains in bullion prices as traders remained at bay for a long
week end
• Strength in the base metals complex on account of optimism in the US and Chinese economy
also pushed the grey metal higher
• On the MCX, silver price rose marginally by 0.02 percent and closed at Rs.44627/kg
• In the international markets, the white metal rose by 0.6 percent, touched a weekly high of
$21.27/oz, and closed the week at $21.13/oz.
CFTC Holdings
• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the
week to June 30th have raised their net longs in comex silver by 11940 contracts to 36697
contracts
Outlook
• Silver prices gained marginally last week as optimism in the US economy on account of good
PMI data released shows strength in industrial activity
• Speculators renewed interest in the metal might also act as a positive factor for the metal
• Meanwhile, CFTC positions indicate that money mangers have raised their longs significantly
in the recent weeks acting as a booster for silver prices
• In the Indian markets, silver prices is expected to trade sideways in line with international
markets and prices can possibly head towards Rs.44000 mark.

MCX / Spot Silver Trading levels for the week
Trend: Sideways
S1 – 44,000 / $ 20.50 R1 - 45,600 / $ 21.50
S2 - 43,200 / $ 20.20 R2 - 46,600 / $ 21.90

Weekly Recommendation: Trend updated for-Jul/09/2014.CMP-44823 The Silver is in perfect uptrend .Currently Silver is in strong uptrend and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Cautious point is buying at higer levels seems decreasing. The Silver is now trading in overbought level. The Silver is now trading in overbought level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Silver is in HOLD LONG position.Positionally Support for the Silver is 44347-44188-43304-42816-42198-41921-. Immediate resistance for Silver is 45308
Currently Silver is in HOLD LONG position In short term Silver is in strong up trend so hold with stop at 44513 The oscillator is showing BUY signal

MCX COPPER AUGUST (CMP – 435.10 / $ 7,159)


MCX Copper August as seen in the weekly chart above has opened with gap up at 424.10 levels and in the same time it made a low of 423.25 levels. In this week as expected prices rallied sharply towards the weekly high of 435.90 levels following with breached the previous week’s high (427.10 levels) and trading above it. During this week prices have closed 2.68% higher at 435.10 levels. Technically, as per the candlestick pattern prices have formed “Bullish candlestick pattern” indicating strength.
For
this week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 427 – 429 levels. Trading consistently below 427 levels would lead towards the strong support at 421 levels and then finally towards the major support at 414 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 442 - 444 levels. Trading consistently above 444 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 450 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 457 levels.

Weekly Price Performance
• LME Copper prices jumped by 3.2 percent in the last week taking cues from fall in the U.S.
unemployment rate to the lowest in almost six years, signaling that US economic recovery will
likely boost demand. In addition, manufacturing activity improved in the US and China thereby
supporting gains.
• Further, mixed market sentiments along with uneven economic recovery in the Euro zone
could not cap sharp gains. The red metal touched a weekly high of $7190/tonne before closing
at $7154/tonne in the last session.
• MCX Copper prices traded higher by more than 4 percent in the last week taking cues from
international markets and touched a weekly high of Rs.435.9/kg.
Copper Inventories
• On the LME, copper inventories gained around 0.9 percent to 156,500 tonnes in the last week
as against a closing of 155,150 tonnes in the prior week.
Outlook
• We expect LME Copper prices to trade higher taking cues from estimates of favorable jobs data
from the US and strong trade balance and inflation data from China.
• Also, expectations of positive economic data from UK and Euro Zone will support gains.
• However, FOMC statement which would likely provide cues regarding interest rates, strength in
the DX along with mixed global market sentiments will keep a check on gains.
• In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.

MCX / LME Copper Trading levels for the week
Trend: Up
S1 – 427 / $ 7,110 R1 – 444 / $ 7,400
S2 – 421 / $ 7,000 R2 – 450 / $ 7,500

Weekly Recommendation: Trend updated for-Jul/09/2014.CMP-434 The Copper is in perfect uptrend .Currently Copper is in strong uptrend and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Cautious point is buying at higer levels seems decreasing. The Copper is now trading in overbought level. The Copper is now trading in overbought level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term The current position is BUY .Positionally Support for the Copper is 427-422-413-411-409-. Immediate resistance for Copper is 440
Currently Copper is in HOLD LONG position In short term Copper is in strong up trend so hold with stop at 433 The Copper is now trading in highly overbought level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal


MCX CRUDE JULY (CMP – 6,222 / $ 103.77)


MCX Crude oil July as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 6,355 levels and prices made a high of 6,395 levels. As expected during this week price could not able to sustain on resistance zone of 6,390 – 6,400 levels and corrected towards the low of 6,191 levels. In the week prices closed below the previous week’s closing of 6,364 levels and finally closed 2.23% lower at 6,222 levels. As per the candlestick pattern prices have formed a “Bearish Candlestick Pattern” which is negative sign for further upcoming trading sessions.
For
this week we expect Crude oil prices to find support in the range of 6,120 – 6,100 levels. Trading consistently below 6,100 levels would lead towards the strong support at 6,040 levels and then finally towards the major support at 5,950 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 6,290-6,300 levels. Trading consistently above 6,300 levels would lead the rally towards the strong resistance at 6,390 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 6,460 levels.

Weekly Price Performance
• Oil prices declined on both sides of the Atlantic as investors attention shifted back to demand
although China's factory growth rose to a six-month high, adding to signs the economy of the
world's second-biggest oil consumer is regaining strength
• China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51 in June, quickening from May's
reading of 50.8 and in line with market expectations on improving domestic and foreign
demand.
• Manufacturing activity in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, grew in June for the 13thstraight
month, though the pace of the expansion slowed from May.
• Encouraging signs of supply from Iraq and Libya has reinforced the view that supply in the oil
markets is ample
• Libyan export capacity looked likely to recover by about 500,000 barrels per day as rebels
blockading eastern oil ports have agreed to reopen the remaining two terminals at Es Sider and
Ras Lanuf
• On the NYMEX, WTI Crude oil prices declined by around 2 percent touched a weekly low of
$103.64/bbl and closed at $103.77/bbl.
• On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 2.2 percent. Crude prices closed at Rs.6222/bbl on
Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.6210/bbl.
Oil Inventories
• The API released its weekly inventories report last week and US crude oil inventories declined
by 0.876 million barrels for the week ending on 27th June 2014. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.407
million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels for the same time
period.
• The EIA released its weekly inventories report last week and US crude oil inventories declined
by 3.2 million barrels for the week ending on 27th June 2014. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million
barrels whereas distillate inventories rose 1 million barrels for the same time period.

CFTC Holdings:
•The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to 24th June showed that bullish bets on crude oil has declined by 10898 contracts to 373084 contracts.
U.S. employment growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a six-year low
• U.S. employment growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a six-year low, decisive evidence the economy was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year.
•Nonfarm payrolls increased by 288,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent from 6.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for April and May were revised to show a total of 29,000 more jobs created than previously reported.
Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region has hit back at Baghdad over independent oil exports
•Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region has hit back at Baghdad over independent oil exports, a letter from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) showed, threatening to counter sue the central government for trying to block its sales.
•The strongly worded letter shows growing confidence from the Kurdish capital Arbil in the long-running oil sales dispute, as Baghdad struggles to regain control of swathes of territory lost to a Sunni Islamic militant insurgency.
Outlook
•From a week’s perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower as the risk premium related to escalation of geo-political tensions in Ukraine and violence in Iraq has eased down
•Libyan exports is also gaining traction ensuring that oil markets are well supplied
•Besides, oil prices trading closer towards $100 mark might trigger further downside in prices
•Money managers have been cutting their net longs in the recent weeks acting as a negative factor for prices
•In the Indian markets, prices are expected to trade lower in line with weakness in international markets and price can possibly head towards Rs.6100 mark.

MCX / NYMEX Crude Oil Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1 – 6,120 / $ 102 R1 – 6,300 / $ 105
S2 – 6,040 / $ 100.60 R2 – 6,390 / $ 106.50

Weekly Recommendation: Trend updated for-Jul/09/2014.CMP-6189 The Crudeoil is in long- medium- term bull phase .Currently Crudeoil is in strong downtrend with good momentum but volume is unsatisfactory The open interest is not increasing with trend . Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Crudeoil is in SELL position.Positionally Support for the Crudeoil is 6160-6149-6142-.Resistance for the Crudeoil is 6314-6354-
Currently Crudeoil is in HOLD SHORT position The Crudeoil is in downtrend For short term buy only if close above 6242.0 The Crudeoil is now trading in highly oversold level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal


MCX NATURAL GAS JULY (CMP – 262.20 / $ 4.36)


MCX Natural Gas July as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 265.60 levels and made a high of 271.30 levels. During this week prices could not able to sustain on the resistance zone of 272 – 273 levels and sharply corrected towards the weekly low of 259.10 levels. This week prices have closed below the previous week’s closing of 264.90 levels and finally closed 1.02% lower at 262.20 levels. Technically, prices have formed “Bearish candlestick pattern” which is the sign of pessimism.
For
this week we expect Natural Gas prices to find support in the range of 257 - 255 levels. Trading consistently below 255 levels would lead towards the strong support at 251 levels and then finally towards the major support at 248 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 267 - 268 levels. Trading consistently above 268 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 273 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 280 levels.
MCX / NYMEX Natural Gas Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1 - 257 / $ 4.30 R1 - 268 / $ 4.45
S2 - 251 / $ 4.20 R2 - 273 / $ 4.60

Weekly Recommendation: Trend updated for-Jul/09/2014.CMP-252 Overall trend of the Naturalgas is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Naturalgas is in strong downtrend and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The Naturalgas is now trading in oversold level. The Naturalgas is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Naturalgas is in SELL position.Positionally Immediate support for Naturalgas is 247.Resistance for the Naturalgas is 265-268-272-273-281-
Currently Naturalgas is in HOLD SHORT position The Naturalgas is in downtrend For short term buy only if close above 260.0 The Naturalgas is now trading in highly oversold level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal



MCXSX/NSE USDINR JULY (CMP – 60.03)


MCXSX/NSE USDINR July as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 60.43 levels and in this week prices have made a high of 60.60 levels. During this week prices could not able to sustain on resistance zone of 60.65 – 60.70 and corrected sharply towards the low of 59.75 levels. At the last trading session of the week prices bounced from the lower levels and finally closed 0.69% lower at 60.0325 levels. Technically it is formed the “Bearish candlestick pattern” which is the sign of bearish activity.
For this week we expect USDINR prices to find support in the range of 59.75 – 59.70 levels. Trading consistently below 59.70 levels would lead towards the strong support at 59.20 levels and then finally towards the major support at 58.90 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 60.65 – 60.70 levels. Trading consistently above 60.70 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 61.00 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 61.40 levels.

Weekly Price Performance
•On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.5 percent. The currency appreciated on account of favorable manufacturing and services data from the country.
•Further, favorable domestic market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. Constant inflow of foreign funds into equities and debt markets continued with positive movement in the currency.
•However, sharp upside in the currency was capped due to buying of dollars by state run banks mainly for importers.
•Further, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was spotted buying dollars after 59.60-levels restricted upside pressure in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched a weekly high of 59.525 and closed at 59.72 on Friday.
Economic data in the last week
•India’s HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to the highest level in last 17-months and rose by 4.2 points to 54.4-mark in June from 50.2-level in May.
Outlook
•We expect Indian Rupee to trade sideways in the coming week as optimism ahead of the budget will support gains in the currency.
•While on the other hand, any indication of interest rate rise in the FOMC meeting minutes will act as a negative factor.
Weekly Technical Levels
•USD-INR SPOT : Support 59.40/59.00 Resistance 60.10/61.40. (CMP: 59.72)
Economic Data to be released during the week.
Trade balance– 7th – 11th July’14
Previous: 11.23B
Industrial output– 11th July’14
Time: 5:30pm
Previous: 3.4 percent
Manufacturing output – 11th July’14
Time: 5:30pm
Previous: 2.6 percent

MCXSX / NSE USDINR Trading levels for the week
Trend: Down
S1 – 59.70 R1 – 60.70
S2 – 59.20 R2 – 61.00
Weekly Recommendation:



Dollar Index
Weekly Price Performance

•The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a positive note and gained around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of signs of a speeding U.S. recovery as indicated by the favorable employment data which spurred speculation the Federal Reserve will bring forward the timing of interest-rate rise. The currency touched an intra-day high of 80.6 and closed at 80.28 on Thursday.
Economic data comes on a positive note
•US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 2.9 points to 62.6-mark in June as against a rise of 65.5-level in May. Pending Home Sales grew sharply by 6.1 percent in May from 0.5 percent a month ago.
•US Final Manufacturing PMI dropped marginally by 0.2 points to 57.3-mark in June as against a rise of 57.5-level in May. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI was at 55.3-level in June from 55.4-mark in May.
•US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change rose by 102,000 to 281,000 in June as against a rise of 179,000 in May. Factory Orders declined by 0.5 percent in May from rise of 0.8 percent a month ago.
•US Non-Farm Employment Change gained by 64,000 to 288,000 in June as against a rise of 224,000 in May. Trade Balance at a deficit of $44.4 billion in May from earlier deficit of $47 billion a month ago. Unemployment Claims rose marginally by 2,000 to 315,000 for the week ending on 27th June 2014 with respect to 313,000 in prior week. Unemployment Rate fell to 6.1 percent in June when compared to 6.3 percent in May. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped by 0.3 points to 56-mark in June from 56.3-level in May.
Outlook
•We expect the Dollar Index to trade on a positive note during the week on the back of expectations of interest rate indication in the FOMC minutes which will be released on Wednesday.
•Also, rise in risk aversion in market sentiments will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency thereby acting as a positive factor for the DX.
Weekly Technical Levels
•Dollar Index (DX) : Support 79.90/79.40 Resistance 80.70/81.00. (CMP: 80.27)
Economic Data to be released during the week:
JOLTS Job Openings – 8th July’14
Time: 7:30pm
Previous : 4.46M, Forecast : 4.53M
Unemployment Claims – 10th July’14
Time: 6:00pm
Previous : 315K, Forecast : 316K

Euro
Weekly Price Performance

•The Euro traded on a negative note and declined around 0.4 percent in the last week as European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi indicated towards lower interest rates for an extended period given persistent downside risks to the economy. Further, mixed economic data from the region coupled with strength in the DX acted as negative factors.
•However, upbeat market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.3584 and closed at 1.3593 on Friday.
Economic data from the Euro Zone comes on a negative note
•German Retail Sales declined by 0.6 percent in May as against a drop of 1.5 percent in April. Core CPI Flash Estimate grew by 0.8 percent in June when compared to 0.7 percent in prior month. Italian Prelim CPI rose by 0.1 percent in June from plunge of 0.1 percent in May.
•Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.7 points to 54.6-mark in June as against a rise of 52.9-level in May. Italian Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 52.6-level in June from 53.2-mark in previous month. German Factory Orders slumped by 1.7 percent in May as against a gain of 3.4 percent in April. Final Manufacturing PMI was at 51.8-level in last month when compared to 51.9-mark in May.
•German Unemployment Change was at 9,000 in May with respect to rise of 24,000 a month ago. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 12.6 percent in the month of May. Euro Zone Unemployment Rate fell to 11.6 percent in May from 11.7 percent a month ago.
Outlook
•The Euro will trade on a negative note over the week on the back of strength in the DX. Further, mixed market sentiments, expectations of interest rates indication in the FOMC meeting minutes will act as a negative factor.
•However, estimates of favorable economic data from the region will cushion sharp fall.
Weekly Technical Levels
•EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.3550/1.3500 Resistance 1.3660/1.3740. (CMP: 1.3594)

Economic Data to be released during the week
German Trade Balance – 8th July’14 Time: 11:30am Previous : 17.7B, Forecast : 15.7B French Industrial Production – 10th July’14 Time: 12:15pm Previous : 0.3 percent, Forecast : 0.5 percent

( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
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