09 July 2014 Technical Levels for Metals and Energy
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Sideways----27300----27400----27519----27650----27800
Spot Gold-----------------------------Sideways----1309----1314----1320----1326----1333
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July------Sideways----25090----25180----25298----25410----25550
Silver----MCX----Sept--------------Sideways----44200----44500----44823----45100----45400
Spot Silver----------------------------Sideways----20.70----20.90----21.05----21.10----21.30
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----4030----4055----4090----4110----4144
Base Metals
LME Copper-------------------------Up----7040----7090----7155----7230----7260
Copper----MCX----Aug-------------Up----428----431----434.45----439----441
Zinc----MCX----July----------------Up----134.50----135.50----136.35----137.50----138.50
Lead----MCX----July---------------Up----129.50----130.50----131.70----132.80----134.00
Aluminium----MCX----July----------Up----113.50----114.50----115.30----116.50----117.50
Nickel----MCX----July-------------Up----1160----1170----1181.4----1190----1200
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July------------Sideways----6100----6140----6189----6230----6280
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Sideways----101.90----102.60----103.42----104.10----104.90
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July-----------Sideways----6175----6215----6264----6305----6390
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July--------Sideways----6460----6500----6550----6590----6640
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----107.30----108.00----108.81----109.50----110.30
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6490----6530----6581----6620----6670
Natural Gas----MCX----July------------Down----245----248----251.6----253----257
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Sideways----27300----27400----27519----27650----27800
Spot Gold-----------------------------Sideways----1309----1314----1320----1326----1333
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July------Sideways----25090----25180----25298----25410----25550
Silver----MCX----Sept--------------Sideways----44200----44500----44823----45100----45400
Spot Silver----------------------------Sideways----20.70----20.90----21.05----21.10----21.30
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----4030----4055----4090----4110----4144
Base Metals
LME Copper-------------------------Up----7040----7090----7155----7230----7260
Copper----MCX----Aug-------------Up----428----431----434.45----439----441
Zinc----MCX----July----------------Up----134.50----135.50----136.35----137.50----138.50
Lead----MCX----July---------------Up----129.50----130.50----131.70----132.80----134.00
Aluminium----MCX----July----------Up----113.50----114.50----115.30----116.50----117.50
Nickel----MCX----July-------------Up----1160----1170----1181.4----1190----1200
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July------------Sideways----6100----6140----6189----6230----6280
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Sideways----101.90----102.60----103.42----104.10----104.90
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July-----------Sideways----6175----6215----6264----6305----6390
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July--------Sideways----6460----6500----6550----6590----6640
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----107.30----108.00----108.81----109.50----110.30
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6490----6530----6581----6620----6670
Natural Gas----MCX----July------------Down----245----248----251.6----253----257
International Commodities
Bullion
Gold
Spot gold prices continue to trade lower on Tuesday as investors awaited clear signs from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it is on track to raise U.S. interest rates next year. Prices turned lower after U.S. Fed policymaker Jeffrey Lacker said he sees inflation firming this year.
Lack of support from physical markets could weigh on prices, however, tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine are ensuring that there is still some demand for gold as insurance against geopolitical risk.
On the MCX, gold prices gained marginally by 0.11 percent in contrary to the decline in international markets and closed at Rs.27519/10gms.
Silver
Spot silver prices traded lower for second consecutive session on weakness in bullion prices as investors await release of minutes from the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday to gauge the central bank's view on interest rates and economic strength. However, weakness in the DX and strength in Nickel prices cushioned sharp downside.
On the MCX, silver prices gained marginally by 0.1 percent in contrary to the fall in international markets.
- Overview
- US JOLTS Job Openings rose to 4.64 million in the month of May.
- German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 18.8 billion Euros in May.
- UK’s Manufacturing Production fell by 1.3 percent in prior month.
- China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped to 2.3 percent in June.
Bullion
Gold
Spot gold prices continue to trade lower on Tuesday as investors awaited clear signs from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it is on track to raise U.S. interest rates next year. Prices turned lower after U.S. Fed policymaker Jeffrey Lacker said he sees inflation firming this year.
Lack of support from physical markets could weigh on prices, however, tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine are ensuring that there is still some demand for gold as insurance against geopolitical risk.
On the MCX, gold prices gained marginally by 0.11 percent in contrary to the decline in international markets and closed at Rs.27519/10gms.
Silver
Spot silver prices traded lower for second consecutive session on weakness in bullion prices as investors await release of minutes from the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday to gauge the central bank's view on interest rates and economic strength. However, weakness in the DX and strength in Nickel prices cushioned sharp downside.
On the MCX, silver prices gained marginally by 0.1 percent in contrary to the fall in international markets.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect the precious metals pack to take cues from the release of the Federal Reserve minutes of the meeting tonight which is expected to give signals on interest rates in the US. In addition, weak physical demand is acting as a negative factor and exerting downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, precious metals are expected to trade sideways in line with sideways trade in international markets
Energy
Crude Oil
Oil prices continued its decline for consecutive second session in a row as Libyan oil exports looked likely to rise and fears eased of supply disruption in Iraq. Libya's 340,000 barrel per day (bpd) El Sharara oilfield has resumed operations after a four-month strike and this may free more oil for export after last week's port deal with rebels.
In Libya, preparations were under way to reopen two major oil ports in the east. Shut by protests almost a year ago, the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider ports make up more than a third of the OPEC producer's export capacity.
API inventory update
The API released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels for the week ending on 4th July 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.112 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 0.522 million barrels for the same time period.
EIA inventory forecast
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending on 4th July 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.2 whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels for the same time period.
Natural Gas
U.S. natural gas futures ended down by 0.24 percent on Tuesday after falling to the lowest in six months earlier in the day on forecasts for continued cooler-than-normal weather and expectations for another big storage build.
On the MCX, NG prices declined by 0.75 percent and closed at Rs.251.60/MMbtu
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade lower as resumption of Libya’s exports have eased supply constraints in energy markets. Besides, the Iraq situation has also eased down a bit acting as a negative factor for prices.
Meanwhile, the inventory report due to be released by the EIA tonight will provide further direction to crude prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade lower in line with weakness in international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals (except copper) traded on a positive note yesterday owing to favorable jobs data from the US. Also, positive trade balance data from Euro Zone along with decline in LME inventories acted as a positive factor.
However, unfavorable manufacturing data from UK along with weak global market sentiments restricted sharp upside in prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher in line with international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices traded flat yesterday after making five-month high of $7,212 a tonne, the strongest since Feb. 19 yesterday on the back of short covering by money managers as the outlook for the global economy brightened after jobs openings data from the US rose to the highest level in seven years despite lag in hiring. Also, decline of 0.8 percent in inventories acted as a positive factor.
However, rise in risk aversion in market sentiments along with negative manufacturing data from UK caped sharp gains.
MCX Copper prices gained percent taking cues from international markets.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade higher although the Chinese inflation data released this morning was unfavorable. On the contrary, optimism regarding growth in the US economy will support gains.
However, prices may reverse trend in the evening session if the FOMC meeting minutes points toward early rate hike.
MCX Copper prices will take cues from trends in international markets
Important Events DATA for Today
Indicator -------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
CPI y/y ---------------------China----------- 7:00am----- 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% High
PPI y/y ---------------------China---------- 7:00am------- 1.1% -1.1% -1.4% Medium
Crude Oil Inventories------- US------------ 8:00pm ---------- -2.2 -3.2M Medium
10-y Bond Auction---------- US -----------10:30pm ---------- - 2.65/2.9 Medium
FOMC Meeting Minutes -----US----------- 11:30pm --------------- - - High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
On an intraday basis, we expect the precious metals pack to take cues from the release of the Federal Reserve minutes of the meeting tonight which is expected to give signals on interest rates in the US. In addition, weak physical demand is acting as a negative factor and exerting downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, precious metals are expected to trade sideways in line with sideways trade in international markets
Energy
Crude Oil
Oil prices continued its decline for consecutive second session in a row as Libyan oil exports looked likely to rise and fears eased of supply disruption in Iraq. Libya's 340,000 barrel per day (bpd) El Sharara oilfield has resumed operations after a four-month strike and this may free more oil for export after last week's port deal with rebels.
In Libya, preparations were under way to reopen two major oil ports in the east. Shut by protests almost a year ago, the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider ports make up more than a third of the OPEC producer's export capacity.
API inventory update
The API released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels for the week ending on 4th July 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.112 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 0.522 million barrels for the same time period.
EIA inventory forecast
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending on 4th July 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.2 whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels for the same time period.
Natural Gas
U.S. natural gas futures ended down by 0.24 percent on Tuesday after falling to the lowest in six months earlier in the day on forecasts for continued cooler-than-normal weather and expectations for another big storage build.
On the MCX, NG prices declined by 0.75 percent and closed at Rs.251.60/MMbtu
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade lower as resumption of Libya’s exports have eased supply constraints in energy markets. Besides, the Iraq situation has also eased down a bit acting as a negative factor for prices.
Meanwhile, the inventory report due to be released by the EIA tonight will provide further direction to crude prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade lower in line with weakness in international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals (except copper) traded on a positive note yesterday owing to favorable jobs data from the US. Also, positive trade balance data from Euro Zone along with decline in LME inventories acted as a positive factor.
However, unfavorable manufacturing data from UK along with weak global market sentiments restricted sharp upside in prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher in line with international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices traded flat yesterday after making five-month high of $7,212 a tonne, the strongest since Feb. 19 yesterday on the back of short covering by money managers as the outlook for the global economy brightened after jobs openings data from the US rose to the highest level in seven years despite lag in hiring. Also, decline of 0.8 percent in inventories acted as a positive factor.
However, rise in risk aversion in market sentiments along with negative manufacturing data from UK caped sharp gains.
MCX Copper prices gained percent taking cues from international markets.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade higher although the Chinese inflation data released this morning was unfavorable. On the contrary, optimism regarding growth in the US economy will support gains.
However, prices may reverse trend in the evening session if the FOMC meeting minutes points toward early rate hike.
MCX Copper prices will take cues from trends in international markets
Important Events DATA for Today
Indicator -------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
CPI y/y ---------------------China----------- 7:00am----- 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% High
PPI y/y ---------------------China---------- 7:00am------- 1.1% -1.1% -1.4% Medium
Crude Oil Inventories------- US------------ 8:00pm ---------- -2.2 -3.2M Medium
10-y Bond Auction---------- US -----------10:30pm ---------- - 2.65/2.9 Medium
FOMC Meeting Minutes -----US----------- 11:30pm --------------- - - High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
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