Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 02 May 2014

Akshaya Tritiya Special Report on Gold next update coming soon.............

Commodity -----Exchange Contract Trend-------- S2 -------S1 ---------LTP-------- R1--------- R2
Bullions

Gold --------------MCX -------June ------Sideways ---28300---- 28450---- 28580------ 28700---- 28800
Spot Gold-----------------------------------
Sideways--- 1270----- 1277------ 1283------- 1288------ 1293
Gold Hedge ------NCDEX ----May ------Down -------24560 ---24690----- 24811------ 24910 ----25000
Silver --------------MCX------- July------- Down------ 40800---- 41200----- 41534 -----41900---- 42300
Spot Silver -----------------------------------Down------- 18.60 ----18.80------ 19.01------ 19.20----- 19.40
Silver Hedge ------NCDEX---- June------ Down------ 3675 ------3710------ 3741-------- 3775----- 3810
Base Metals 


 
LME Copper--------------------------------- Sideways--- 6550 ------6600 -----6670 --------6700----- 6750
Copper-------------- MCX -------June -----Down -------400 --------403 -------406.95------ 409------ 412
Zinc ---------------MCX -------May ------Sideways ---120.50 ----121.50 ----122.25---- 123.00-- 124.00
Lead ----------------MCX ------May -------Down -------123.80---- 124.80---- 125.70--- 126.50-- 127.50
Aluminium------- MCX --------May -------Down------ 104.50----- 105.50 ---106.35-- 107.00--- 108.00
Nickel -------------MCX------- May-------- Sideways ---1088----- 1098------- 1108.1---- 1115 -----1122
Energy 

Crude Oil ----------MCX-------- May -------Down-------- 5900---- 5950------- 5999------- 6030 ---6070
Crude Oil---------- NYMEX ----June ------Down --------97.80 ---98.60 -------99.47 ------99.90 -100.60
Brent Crude Oil ----MCX ------May ------Sideways ----6590 -----6640 -------6695 ----6720---- 6760
Brent Crude Oil ---NYMEX ----June ------Sideways---- 106.10--- 106.90--- 107.76--- 108.20- 108.90
Natural Gas -------MCX -------May -------Sideways----- 280 ------283 ---------286------ 289 ------292



Outlook gold and silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade with a negative bias as Federal Reserve believes that US economic prospects is in a bright spot and continue to reduce its bond buying programme in the coming months. Besides, consumer spending which indicates 70 percent on the economy is at its higher level in last 4 and a half year acting as a positive factor for the economy and negative for gold and silver prices.

 EIA inventory update
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is gained by 1.7 million barrels for the week ending on 25th April 2014.


Outlook crude
On an intraday basis we expect crude prices to trade on a negative note on record high inventories in the US. Besides, the bad economic data from China and restart of Libyan crude exports can exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a weaker note taking cues from weak international markets


Outlook Copper
We expect LME Copper prices to trade on a mixed note today on the back of mixed market sentiments along with strength in the DX hat will exert downside pressure on prices. Also, estimates of weak construction data from UK will act as a negative factor.
While on the other hand, estimates of strong employment data from the US along with positive manufacturing data from Euro Zone will cushion sharp downside or even reversal in prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.


Important Events for Today
Indicator----------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact 

Household Spending y/y---------- Japan---- 5:00am----- 7.2% ---1.7%---- (-2.5%) Medium 
Bank Holiday----------------------- China ----All Day - - - - 
Spanish Manufacturing PMI------ Euro------ 12:45pm ------------- 53.2 -------52.8 Medium 
Italian Manufacturing PMI-------- Euro------- 1:15pm ------------- 53.0-------- 52.4 Medium 
Construction PMI -------------------UK--------- 2:00pm - -----------62.2 ---------62.5 High 
German 10-y Bond Auction -------Euro------- Tentative - - - ---------------------------Medium 
Unemployment Rate---------------- Euro ------2:30pm -------------- 11.9%---- 11.9% Medium 
Non-Farm Employment Change --US-------- 6:00pm ---------------- 216K---- 192K High 
Unemployment Rate----------------- US------ 6:00pm ---------------- 6.6% ------6.7% High 
Average Hourly Earnings m/m---- US-------- 6:00pm --------------- 0.2% -----0.0% Medium 
Factory Orders m/m -----------------US --------7:30pm -------------- 1.5% ------1.6% Medium

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