Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Sideways -----26600------ 26700---- 26831 -----26950--- 27100 Spot Gold----------------------------- Up----------- 1260------- 1265----- 1271------- 1277---- 1284
Gold Hedge NCDEX--- July----------- Up ---------24480------ 24570 ----24700------ 24810-- 24950
Silver------- MCX -----July----------- Sideways---- 41500 -----41900----- 42204 ----42500 ---42800
Spot Silver ----------------------------Up ---------19.30------- 19.50------- 19.61----- 19.70---- 19.90
Silver Hedge NCDEX--- June--------- Up ----------3750 --------3790------ 3823------ 3850---- 3880
Base Metals
LME Copper --------------------------Sideways----- 6620----- 6670------- 6735----- 6780------ 6840
Copper------ MCX ----June---------- Sideways -----399 ------402-------- 405.90----- 409 ------412
Zinc ----------MCX ----June ---------Up ----------124.50---- 125.50----- 126.25---- 127.20-- 128.20
Lead ---------MCX ----June--------- Up ----------123.50 -----124.50----- 125.65-- 126.50--- 127.50
Aluminium ----MCX ---June ----------Up ----------107.50----- 108.50 ----109.65---- 110.50--- 111.50
Nickel --------MCX ---June---------- Up ----------1105-------- 1112------ 1123.60---- 1135----- 1145
Energy
Crude Oil---- MCX ---June---------- Up ----------6330 ---------6380 ------6421 -----6470------ 6520
Crude Oil NYMEX ----July -----------Up ---------105.10 ------105.90---- 106.65---- 107.40 --108.20
Brent Crude Oil MCX---June ---------Up ---------6585--------- 6635----- 6676 -----6725------- 6775
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX July --------Up ---------111.10 -------111.90----- 112.66---- 113.40-- 114.30
Natural Gas ---MCX ---June ---------Up ---------278 ---------281---------- 284 ------288 -------292
International Commodities
Overview
India’s WPI inflation jumped sharply to 6.01 percent in last month.
API crude oil inventories expected to gain by 0.3 mn bbl – Reuters.
Euro Zone Core CPI remained unchanged at 0.7 percent in May.
LME Copper stocks fell by 0.9 percent to 162,250 tonnes.
US Industrial Production grew by 0.6 percent in previous month.
Bullion
Gold
The yellow metal had gained nearly 4 percent in the past seven sessions on the rising violence in Iraq and lingering tensions over Ukraine. After trading near three weeks high on turmoil in Iraq which lifted bullions safe haven appeal, gold prices fell on Monday due to profit booking at higher levels. In addition, the fall in prices can be attributed to key technical level of $1285 wherein most of the options trades are placed.
Bullion prices rose initially after the United States said it could launch air strikes to support the Iraqi government after a rampage by Sunni Islamist insurgents. Gold's initial gains were also boosted by developments in Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists shot down a Ukrainian army transport plane.
Silver
Weakness in gold prices on account of profit booking also led to fall in silver prices in the international markets. Although base metals complex traded largely positive and dollar index weakness it did not support the prices.
On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.8 percent on account of depreciation in rupee and closed at Rs.42204/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, spot gold prices are expected to trade sideways as profit booking at higher levels will lead to correction in prices whereas escalation of violence in Iraq and geo-political tensions in Ukraine will support prices.
Meanwhile, investors will watch out for Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy meeting that could bring caution to any rally in gold as markets watch for any signals on when the U.S. central bank might begin raising interest rates.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways in line with international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
API inventory forecast
The API is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to gain by 0.3 million barrels for the week ending on 13th June 2014.
Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.3million barrels while distillate inventories are expected to decrease by 0.8 million barrels for the same time period.
Natural gas
U.S. natural gas futures ended lower on Monday as record production and predicted cooler temperatures next week offset increased air conditioning demand in the Midwest and East this week. On the MCX, natural gas prices declined by 0.8 percent and closed at Rs.284/MMBtu
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a positive note as violence in Iraq has raised concerns about exports from the nation while on the other hand the API inventory due to be released tonight will provide further trajectory to prices. Any action by the US with regards to the situation in Iraq will heat the situation further in turn supporting prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note in line with strength in international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note yesterday taking cues from favorable manufacturing and industrial data from the US. Also, weakness in the DX along with decline in inventories supported gains.
However, rise in risk aversion in the markets on the back of escalating tensions in Iraq restricted sharp upside in prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher owing to Rupee depreciation.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade sideways today owing to mixed economic data from the US in the evening session. Further, weak market sentiments along with strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on prices.
While on the other hand, estimates of positive economic sentiments data from Euro Zone will cushion sharp downside in prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation will support gains in prices
Important Events for Today
Indicator --------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
CPI y/y ----------------------------UK------ 2:00pm - ----------1.7% -----1.8% High
PPI Input m/m---------------------- UK -----2:00pm ------------ 0.1% ----1.1% Medium
RPI y/y -----------------------------UK -----2:00pm ------------ 2.5%---- 2.5% Medium
German ZEW Economic Sentiment-- Euro---- 2:30pm ----------- 35.2------ 33.1 High
ZEW Economic Sentiment------------ Euro---- 2:30pm --------- 59.6------- 55.2 Medium
Building Permits ---------------------US ------6:00pm - ---------1.07M ----1.08M High
Core CPI m/m -----------------------US------ 6:00pm - ---------0.2%----- 0.2% High
CPI m/m ----------------------------US ------6:00pm ------------ 0.2%----- 0.3% Medium
Housing Starts -----------------------US ------6:00pm ----------- 1.04M---- 1.07M Medium
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