commodity buy sell signal software Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 23 June 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2

Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Up --------27350 ------27500 -----27668 -----27850 ----27950
Spot Gold -----------------------------Up --------1307 --------1314 -----1322-------- 1331------ 1335
Gold Hedge NCDEX-- July -----------Up --------25200 ------25340 ----25500------- 25660--- 25760
Silver ------MCX------ July---------- Up-------- 43700------ 44100---- 44570------- 44800 ----45100
Spot Silver ---------------------------Up --------20.30 -------20.60 -----20.77 -------20.80 ------21.10
Silver Hedge NCDEX-- June--------- Up --------3970------- 4010 ------4054-------4070-------- 4100
Base Metals

LME Copper------------------------- Up --------6700------ 6730------ 6777------- 6810 --------6860
Copper ----MCX----- June---------- Up-------- 410-------- 413------ 415.45------ 418---------- 421
Zinc --------MCX----- June--------- Up --------128.50 ----129.50 ----130.55----- 131.50----- 132.50
Lead --------MCX-----June--------- Up --------125.00 ----126.00----- 127.20 ----128.00----- 129.00
Aluminium ---MCX----- June-------- Up------- 109.50------110.50 -----111.60---- 112.50------ 113.50
Nickel------ MCX -----June --------Sideways-- 1085 ------1095 -------1115 ------1115 ----------1123
Crude Oil ---MCX----- July--------- Up------- 6340 ------6400 -------6460 ------6500-------- 6550
Crude Oil--- NYMEX--- July -------Up -------105.20 -----106.20----- 107.21---- 107.80 ----108.70
Crude Oil ---NCDEX--- Aug -------Up -------6300------- 6360------- 6426 -----6460-------- 6550
Brent Crude Oil MCX--- July-------- Up------- 6550------- 6610------ 6676------ 6710------- 6760
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX Aug -------Up-------- 113.00----- 114.10---- 115.15--- 115.80----- 116.70
Brent Crude Oil NCDEX July -------Up -------6820 --------6880 ------6943----- 6980 ---------7030
Natural Gas---- MCX ----June -----Sideways --267 --------270 --------273.20---- 276----------- 279

China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8-mark in June.
LME Copper inventories declined by 2.5 percent last week.
UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing rose by 11.5 billion Pounds in May.
Base metals jump last week on optimism regarding China.
Euro Zone Current Account was at surplus of 21.5 bn Euros in April.


The yellow metal has gained grounds once again in the recent weeks and rose nearly 6 percent this month. The rise was partly due to rising violence in Iraq and lingering tensions over Ukraine lifting bullions safe haven appeal. Comments from the US that it could launch air strikes to support the Iraqi government after a rampage by Sunni Islamist insurgents led to the rally. Government forces continued to battle Sunni militants for control of Iraq's biggest refinery as U.S. President Barack Obama said the United States will send up to 300 military advisers to Iraq to combat the extremist insurgency.
On the flip side, the central bank slashed its forecast for U.S. economic growth to a range of between 2.1 percent and 2.3 percent from an earlier forecast of around 2.9 percent. The Fed also reduced its monthly asset purchases from $45 billion to $35 billion. Although high reading for U.S. inflation has raised expectations the Fed might signal a sooner-than-expected rise in interest rates. Tightening rates would also lift the dollar and put pressure on dollar-priced commodities like gold. However, lack of interest by the Fed members to raise the interest rates and slow momentum in the US economy has acted as a trigger for traders to push the precious metals higher.

Silver prices rose by 6.3 percent in line with strength in bullion prices. Strength in the copper prices and renewed interest by the speculators acted as a positive factor. Although dollar index traded higher by 0.1 percent silver prices rose in line with the fundamentals and the geo-political tensions and escalating violence in Iraq. On the MCX, silver price rose by 6.4percent and closed at Rs.44570/kg.

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways with lack of cues from the US with no high impact economic data events to be released throughout the day. Fed’s lack of interest to raise interest rates and slow momentum in the US economy will act as a trigger for traders to push the precious metals higher in the coming weeks. On the MCX, gold and silver price are expected to trade sideways in line with international markets.

Crude Oil

Concerns over potential disruptions over oil exports from Iraq supported oil prices in the last week
Scores of Iraqis were killed last week during a battle for the provincial capital of Baquba as an uprising by Sunni insurgents continued to threaten the disintegration of Iraq.
The fighting also shut the country's main oil refinery, starving parts of the country of fuel. However, Iraq's oil refineries in the south, which process most of the country's 3.3 million barrels per day of oil production, have been unaffected so far.
The Baiji refinery near Tikrit, 200 km (130 miles) north of the Iraqi capital, remained under siege as troops loyal to the Shi'ite-led government held off insurgents from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and its allies who stormed the perimeter, threatening national energy supplies.

Natural gas
U.S. natural gas futures fell on Friday and ended the week 4 percent lower as utilities refill storage at a record pace and weather forecasts call for some cooler weather and weaker demand in the eastern part of the country next week.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a positive note as violence in Iraq has escalated further with militants taking control over the biggest refinery raising concerns on the supply side. It is Iraq story that is dominating the crude markets and this will continue unless there is a full proof solution to the fight between Shiaas and Sunnis.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note in line with strength in international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note last week on the back of revival of optimism in the economic scenario of the biggest consumers, the US and China. Further, speculation that efforts by Chinese policy makers to support growth in the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals will stabilize demand acted as a positive factor.
However, increasing instability in Iraq led to weak market sentiments and hurt the demand scenario. Also, mixed trend in LME inventories along with weak economic data from Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher owing to Rupee depreciation.

LME Copper prices jumped by 2.7 percent last week as the Federal Reserve indicated towards recovery in the US economy. Also, China’s central bank extended a reserve-requirement cut to some national lenders in an effort to shore up an economy set for the weakest growth since 1990. Further, weakness in the DX along with 2.5 percent decline in inventories supported gains.
However, rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments after uncertain war situation in Iraq along with weak economic data from Euro Zone capped sharp gains. The red metal touched a weekly high of $6830/tonne and closed at $6820/tonne on Friday.
MCX Copper prices surged by 4 percent on account of Rupee depreciation and touched a weekly high of Rs.416.4/kg before closing at Rs.415.5/kg in the last trading session.

Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade on a positive note today on the back of favorable manufacturing data from the biggest consumer, China that is expected to brighten demand prospects for the red metal. Also, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat market sentiments will support gains in prices.
However, estimates of mixed economic data from the US and Euro Zone will cap sharp gains.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.

Important Events for Today
Indicator ---------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI ---China----- 7:15am ------------------- - 49.4 High
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks---------- Japan------- 11:30am ------------------ - - High
French Flash Manufacturing PMI ---Euro------- 12:30pm ---------------- - 49.6 High
French Flash Services PMI ---------Euro ------12:30pm ---------------- - 49.1 Medium
German Flash Manufacturing PMI --Euro ------1:00pm - ------------------ 52.3 High
German Flash Services PMI -------Euro------- 1:00pm - -------------- 56.0 Medium
Flash Manufacturing PMI ----------Euro -------1:30pm ---------------- - 52.2 Medium
Flash Services PMI ----------------Euro------- 1:30pm --------------- - 53.2 Medium
Flash Manufacturing PMI ----------US --------7:15pm ---------------- - 56.4 Medium
Existing Home Sales -------------US ---------7:30pm ---------------- - 4.65M High

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