free live MCX market tips Technical Levels 14 July 2014

Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 14 July 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Gold -------MCX ------Aug---Aug----Up---------28050----28200----28356----28500----28650
Spot Gold------------------------------Up----------1321----1328------1335------1342------1349
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July-------Up----25480----25620----25764----25890----26031
Spot Silver----------------------------Up----20.90----21.10----21.35----21.50----21.70
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Up----4130----4150----4189----4210----4240
Base Metals

LME Copper-------------------------Up----7020----7076----7151----7190----7240
Crude Oil----MCX----July-----------Sideways----6000----6040----6070----6120----6180
Crude Oil--NYMEX----Aug----------Sideways----99.60----100.30----100.85----101.60----102.60
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July---------Sideways----6070----6110----6143----6190----6300
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July------Sideways----6480----6520----6550----6600----6660
Brent Crude Oil--NYMEX--Aug-------Sideways----105.70----106.30----106.86----107.60----108.60
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6380----6420----6456----6500----6560
Natural Gas----MCX----July-----------Down----245----248----250.1----253----256

International Commodities

  • India’s Industrial Production rose to 4.7 percent in the month of May.
  • LME Copper inventories gained around 1.3 percent in the last week.
  • US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $70.5 billion in June.
  • Gold prices jumped last week on Portugal’s’ bank company default.
  • German WPI unchanged at fall of 0.1 percent in the last month.


Spot gold prices started the week in a low note on expectations of an early interest rate hike by the FED. The dollar index also neared a two week high after a government report showed that the US jobless rate was near a 6 year low suggesting bright economic prospects. However, the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes did not suggest any hike in U.S. interest rates soon. The Fed may end its bond buying program after its October meeting if "certain economic conditions remain positive".
On the flip side, prices gained momentum after questions were raised about the health of Portugal's top-listed bank sparked worry that a new euro zone banking crisis might be in the offing. This lead to safe haven appeal for gold.
Espirito Santo Financial Group, the largest shareholder in Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo, suspended trading in its shares and bonds, citing "material difficulties" at parent company ESI. It was the first significant episode of contagion for European peripheral markets this year, and it curbed demand at Greece's second debt sale following its 2012 default.
In the Indian markets, gold prices gained by around 3 percent in the last week. Gold prices touched a weekly high of Rs.28589 gms before closing at Rs.28356/10 gms on Friday.

Silver prices rose largely tracking gains in bullion prices as the contagion in the Euro zone with problems in Portugal escalating has raised the safe haven appeal. Strength in the base metals complex (except Nickel) also led to the gains in silver prices.
On the MCX, silver price rose by 3.2 percent and closed at Rs.46068/kg

Outlook Bullion
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade higher as escalation of Portugal situation has appealed bullions safe haven status. The Euro area crisis is now in the forefront again and the contagion is likely to disturb the growth scenario in the region acting as a positive factor.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from international markets.

Crude Oil

Faltering demand for gasoline in the US, resumption of Libya’s crude output and exports and ease of geo-political tensions have been the prime factors behind recent fall in oil prices (both Brent and WTI)
Libya's state-run National Oil Corp lifted a force majeure from the major eastern Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil ports after rebels agreed last week to end a blockade.
The two Libyan ports had been exporting about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude, far below the 1.4 million bpd that the country pumped in the second quarter of last year, before protests started.
While concerns over abrupt oil shortages from Iraq have eased since an Islamist insurgency raised the spectre of disruptions, traders remain on edge. Sunni insurgents battling forces loyal to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki broke into a military base northeast of Baghdad last Thursday.
On the NYMEX, WTI Crude oil prices declined by around 2.4 percent touched a weekly low of $100.44/bbl and closed at $100.83/bbl.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade sideways after oil prices declined for three continuous weeks as worries about supply disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa eased.
On the other hand, the escalation of Portugal situation has raised demand concerns from the Euro area, while the restart of Libyan exports will ensure smooth supplies in energy markets.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways in line with sideways trade in international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note last week as the FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the winding up of QE program by October this year as US economy showed robust signs of recovery. Also, minutes indicated that the lower interest rates will remain so for longer, thereby giving a boost to base metals prices.
However, uncertainty regarding health of banks in the Euro region after Portugal’s biggest bank company’s default restricted sharp gains. In addition, unfavorable economic data from China and Euro Zone acted as negative factors.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher on account of Rupee depreciation.

LME Copper prices traded marginally higher by 0.1 percent last week owing to optimism regarding the US recovery after unemployment numbers fell to a 5-week low, thereby signaling towards positive demand outlook in the second biggest consumer.
However, unfavorable economic data from the biggest consumer, China along with rise in risk aversion in market sentiments following default by the parent company of Portugal’s biggest bank restricted sharp upside in prices. Further, gain of 1.3 percent in inventories along with negative industrial data from Euro Zone and UK acted as negative factors. The red metal touched a weekly high of $7170.75/tonne on Friday.
MCX Copper prices gained 0.3 percent taking cues from Rupee depreciation and touched a weekly high of Rs.437.8/kg in the last week.

Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade higher on the back of estimates of positive industrial production numbers from the Euro Zone for consecutive two months in a row, thereby supporting demand for the red metal. Also, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market sentiments will support gains.
MCX Copper prices will take cues from trends in international markets.

Important Events for Today

Indicator ------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
French Bank Holiday ---------------Euro All Day - - - - ---------------------------
New Loans------------------------ China---- 14th -16th -------- 950B 871B Medium
Industrial Production m/m----------- Euro----- 2:30pm --------- 0.3% 0.8% Medium
ECB President Draghi Speaks ------Euro ------10:30pm ----------------- - - High

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