Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug---------------Up----27500----27650----27776----27900----28050
Spot Gold-------------------------------Up----1314----1321----1327----1333----1340
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July---------Up----25320----25460----25582----25690----25830
Silver----MCX----Sept-----------------Up----44200----44500----44896----45100----45400
Spot Silver-------------------------------Up----20.70----20.90----21.07----21.20----21.40
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug---------Up----4050----4070----4115----4150----4190
Base Metals
LME Copper----------------------------Up----6840----6890----6955----6980----7020
Copper----MCX----Aug----------------Up----422----425----428.90----431----433
Zinc----MCX----July---------------------Up----131.50----132.50----133.40----134.50----135.50
Lead----MCX----July------------------Up----128.00----129.00----130.05----131.00----132.00
Aluminium----MCX----July--------------Up----110.80----111.80----112.75----113.80----114.80
Nickel----MCX----July------------------Sideways----1125----1135----1146.90----1155----1165
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July---------------Sideways----6240----6290----6337----6380----6420
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Sideways----103.90----104.80----105.60----106.30----106.90
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July------------Sideways----6260----6310----6360----6400----6480
Brent Crude----Oil----MCX----July----Sideways----6640----6690----6738----6780----6820
Brent Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways--110.80----111.60----112.43----113.10----113.80
Brent Crude----Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6690----6740----6795----6830----6870
Natural Gas----MCX----July---------------Down----265----267----269.9----272----275
Technical Outlook for evening session – 1st July’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity Unit ----Support 2--- Support 1 ---CMP Resistance1 ---Resistance 2
Gold--Aug’14--Rs/10--gm--27660--27775--27861--27990--28100
Spot--Gold--$/oz--1314--1320--1326.5--1333--1339
Silver--Sept’14--Rs--/kg--44600--44900--45160--45500--45800
Spot--Silver--$/oz--20.84--20.97--21.1--21.25--21.4
Crude--Oil--July’14--Rs--/bbl--6320--6350--6380--6410--6445
Nymex--Crude--Oil--Aug’14--$/bbl--104.75--105.3--105.83--106.35--106.9
Natural--Gas--July’14--Rs--/mmbtu--264--266--269--271--273
LME--Copper--$/tonne--6910--6950--7002--7050--7105
Copper--Aug’14--Rs--/kg--424--426--428.6--431--434
Zinc--July’14--Rs--/kg--131--131.7--132.5--133.3--134.1
Lead--July’14--Rs--/kg--128.5--129.2--129.95--130.8--131.6
Aluminum--July’14--Rs--/kg--111--111.8--112.3--113--113.8
Nickel--July’14--Rs--/kg--1119--1130--1142.2--1153--1165
International Commodities
News and Analysis
India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5-mark in June.
German Unemployment Change rose by 9,000 in May.
Euro Zone Unemployment Rate fell to 11.6 percent in May
European markets are trading on a positive note today.
Asian markets ended on a mixed note while the US stock futures are trading in the green.
India’s HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose marginally to 51.5-mark in June as against a rise of 51.4-level in May.
Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.7 points to 54.6-mark in June as against a rise of 52.9-level in May. Italian Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 52.6-level in June from 53.2-mark in previous month. German Unemployment Change was at 9,000 in May with respect to rise of 24,000 a month ago. Final Manufacturing PMI was at 51.8-level in last month when compared to 51.9-mark in May. Euro Zone Unemployment Rate fell to 11.6 percent in May from 11.7 percent a month ago.
Gold is off to flying start in 2014 gaining for continuous two quarters in a row. This momentum is majorly driven by lingering tensions in Ukraine and civil war in Iraq. These fears seem to have subsided now and profit booking at higher levels is on the agenda for traders. As spot gold prices have declined marginally by $1 and currently trading at $1326/oz while MCX gold prices are also marginally higher by 0.3 percent and currently trading at Rs.27855/10 gms.
Spot silver prices on the international markets are trading higher by 0.5 percent continuing its recent positive run. On the flip side, weakness is capping the rally. On the MCX, silver prices are trading higher by 0.9 percent and currently trading at Rs.44492/kg.
Base metals on the LME are trading on a negative note today owing to mixed economic data from Euro Zone along with mixed trend in inventories. However, positive manufacturing data from China acted as positive factors. In the Indian markets, base metals are trading higher taking cues from Rupee depreciation.
LME Copper prices traded lower by 0.2 percent on the back of uneven recovery indicated in the manufacturing numbers in Euro Zone. However, positive manufacturing data from China and UK along with favorable unemployment rate data from Euro Zone restricted sharp fall. MCX Copper jumped by 1.5 percent and touched a high of Rs.430.50/kg till 4:00pm IST.
NYMEX crude is trading higher by 0.4 percent on good PMI numbers released from China in the morning session while hopes of good manufacturing data to be released from the US in the evening session is acting as a positive factor. On the MCX, crude prices are trading higher by 0.7 percent and currently trading at Rs.6380/bbl.
Outlook
We expect gold and silver prices to trade higher continuing its recent positive momentum. Crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note hoping that the PMI number from the US releases on a good note.
Base metals are likely to trade sideways as negative trend will likely change course owing to estimates of positive manufacturing data from the US in the evening session.
Important Events for Today
Indicator ---------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Tankan Manufacturing Index-------- Japan------ 5:20am 12 16 17 Medium
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index--- Japan------ 5:20am 19 19 24 Medium
Manufacturing PMI -----------------China -------6:30am 51.0 51.0 50.8 Medium
Average Cash Earnings y/y ---------Japan--------- 7:00am 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% Medium
HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI---- China --------7:15am 50.7 50.8 50.8 High
Spanish Manufacturing PMI --------Euro ---------12:45pm - 53.2 52.9 Medium
Italian Manufacturing PMI ---------Euro ---------1:15pm - 53.5 53.2 Medium
German Unemployment Change ----Euro -------1:25pm - -9K -24K Medium
Manufacturing PMI--------------- UK ---------2:00pm - 56.7 57.0 High
Unemployment Rate--------------- Euro-------- 2:30pm - 11.7% 11.7% Medium
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks--------- US ----------5:30pm - - - Medium
ISM Manufacturing PMI ----------US----------- 7:30pm - 55.6 55.4 High
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Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug---------------Up----27500----27650----27776----27900----28050
Spot Gold-------------------------------Up----1314----1321----1327----1333----1340
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July---------Up----25320----25460----25582----25690----25830
Silver----MCX----Sept-----------------Up----44200----44500----44896----45100----45400
Spot Silver-------------------------------Up----20.70----20.90----21.07----21.20----21.40
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug---------Up----4050----4070----4115----4150----4190
Base Metals
LME Copper----------------------------Up----6840----6890----6955----6980----7020
Copper----MCX----Aug----------------Up----422----425----428.90----431----433
Zinc----MCX----July---------------------Up----131.50----132.50----133.40----134.50----135.50
Lead----MCX----July------------------Up----128.00----129.00----130.05----131.00----132.00
Aluminium----MCX----July--------------Up----110.80----111.80----112.75----113.80----114.80
Nickel----MCX----July------------------Sideways----1125----1135----1146.90----1155----1165
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July---------------Sideways----6240----6290----6337----6380----6420
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug---------Sideways----103.90----104.80----105.60----106.30----106.90
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July------------Sideways----6260----6310----6360----6400----6480
Brent Crude----Oil----MCX----July----Sideways----6640----6690----6738----6780----6820
Brent Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways--110.80----111.60----112.43----113.10----113.80
Brent Crude----Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6690----6740----6795----6830----6870
Natural Gas----MCX----July---------------Down----265----267----269.9----272----275
Technical Outlook for evening session – 1st July’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity Unit ----Support 2--- Support 1 ---CMP Resistance1 ---Resistance 2
Gold--Aug’14--Rs/10--gm--27660--27775--27861--27990--28100
Spot--Gold--$/oz--1314--1320--1326.5--1333--1339
Silver--Sept’14--Rs--/kg--44600--44900--45160--45500--45800
Spot--Silver--$/oz--20.84--20.97--21.1--21.25--21.4
Crude--Oil--July’14--Rs--/bbl--6320--6350--6380--6410--6445
Nymex--Crude--Oil--Aug’14--$/bbl--104.75--105.3--105.83--106.35--106.9
Natural--Gas--July’14--Rs--/mmbtu--264--266--269--271--273
LME--Copper--$/tonne--6910--6950--7002--7050--7105
Copper--Aug’14--Rs--/kg--424--426--428.6--431--434
Zinc--July’14--Rs--/kg--131--131.7--132.5--133.3--134.1
Lead--July’14--Rs--/kg--128.5--129.2--129.95--130.8--131.6
Aluminum--July’14--Rs--/kg--111--111.8--112.3--113--113.8
Nickel--July’14--Rs--/kg--1119--1130--1142.2--1153--1165
International Commodities
News and Analysis
India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5-mark in June.
German Unemployment Change rose by 9,000 in May.
Euro Zone Unemployment Rate fell to 11.6 percent in May
European markets are trading on a positive note today.
Asian markets ended on a mixed note while the US stock futures are trading in the green.
India’s HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose marginally to 51.5-mark in June as against a rise of 51.4-level in May.
Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.7 points to 54.6-mark in June as against a rise of 52.9-level in May. Italian Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 52.6-level in June from 53.2-mark in previous month. German Unemployment Change was at 9,000 in May with respect to rise of 24,000 a month ago. Final Manufacturing PMI was at 51.8-level in last month when compared to 51.9-mark in May. Euro Zone Unemployment Rate fell to 11.6 percent in May from 11.7 percent a month ago.
Gold is off to flying start in 2014 gaining for continuous two quarters in a row. This momentum is majorly driven by lingering tensions in Ukraine and civil war in Iraq. These fears seem to have subsided now and profit booking at higher levels is on the agenda for traders. As spot gold prices have declined marginally by $1 and currently trading at $1326/oz while MCX gold prices are also marginally higher by 0.3 percent and currently trading at Rs.27855/10 gms.
Spot silver prices on the international markets are trading higher by 0.5 percent continuing its recent positive run. On the flip side, weakness is capping the rally. On the MCX, silver prices are trading higher by 0.9 percent and currently trading at Rs.44492/kg.
Base metals on the LME are trading on a negative note today owing to mixed economic data from Euro Zone along with mixed trend in inventories. However, positive manufacturing data from China acted as positive factors. In the Indian markets, base metals are trading higher taking cues from Rupee depreciation.
LME Copper prices traded lower by 0.2 percent on the back of uneven recovery indicated in the manufacturing numbers in Euro Zone. However, positive manufacturing data from China and UK along with favorable unemployment rate data from Euro Zone restricted sharp fall. MCX Copper jumped by 1.5 percent and touched a high of Rs.430.50/kg till 4:00pm IST.
NYMEX crude is trading higher by 0.4 percent on good PMI numbers released from China in the morning session while hopes of good manufacturing data to be released from the US in the evening session is acting as a positive factor. On the MCX, crude prices are trading higher by 0.7 percent and currently trading at Rs.6380/bbl.
Outlook
We expect gold and silver prices to trade higher continuing its recent positive momentum. Crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note hoping that the PMI number from the US releases on a good note.
Base metals are likely to trade sideways as negative trend will likely change course owing to estimates of positive manufacturing data from the US in the evening session.
Important Events for Today
Indicator ---------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Tankan Manufacturing Index-------- Japan------ 5:20am 12 16 17 Medium
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index--- Japan------ 5:20am 19 19 24 Medium
Manufacturing PMI -----------------China -------6:30am 51.0 51.0 50.8 Medium
Average Cash Earnings y/y ---------Japan--------- 7:00am 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% Medium
HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI---- China --------7:15am 50.7 50.8 50.8 High
Spanish Manufacturing PMI --------Euro ---------12:45pm - 53.2 52.9 Medium
Italian Manufacturing PMI ---------Euro ---------1:15pm - 53.5 53.2 Medium
German Unemployment Change ----Euro -------1:25pm - -9K -24K Medium
Manufacturing PMI--------------- UK ---------2:00pm - 56.7 57.0 High
Unemployment Rate--------------- Euro-------- 2:30pm - 11.7% 11.7% Medium
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks--------- US ----------5:30pm - - - Medium
ISM Manufacturing PMI ----------US----------- 7:30pm - 55.6 55.4 High
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