MCX tips free trial Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 03 July 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Sideways----27400----27500----27663----27800----27900
Spot Gold------------------------------Sideways----1310----1315----1323----1330----1334
Gol Hedge----NCDEX----July---------Sideways----25220----25310----25466----25590----25680
Spot Silver------------------------------Sideways----20.80----20.90----21.06----21.20----21.40
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug-------Sideways----4030----4050----4093----4110----4140
Base Metals

LME Copper----------------------------Up----6950----6980----7050----7103----7150
Crude Oil----MCX----July---------------Down----6150----6190----6238----6270----6320
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug--------Sideways----102.50----103.20----104.03----104.50----105.40
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July------------------Down----6220----6260----6315----6340----6420
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July--------------Down----6650----6690----6738----6770----6820
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug-----Sideways----109.40----110.10----110.91----111.40----112.26
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July---------------Down----6630----6670----6724----6750----6800
Natural Gas----MCX----July--------------------Down----254----257----260.8----263----266 

International Commodities

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change gained to 281,000 in June.
China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 55-mark in previous month.
US crude oil inventories declined by 3.2 mn bbl in the last week.
Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 122,700 in June.
UK’s Construction PMI rose by 2.6 points to 62.6-mark in last month.


Spot gold prices gained marginally by 0.13 percent on Wednesday although the report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed that U.S. private sector employers added 281,000 jobs in June. However, for most part of the session, the metal largely traded positive as investors were reluctant to sell ahead of the long holiday weekend.
Weak dollar and continuous second day of inflows in to SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund led to the rally. Holdings rose by 5.69 tonnes to 796.39 tonnes on Tuesday.
On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.30 percent and closed at Rs.27663/10 gms.

Spot silver prices rose by 0.4 percent on Wednesday on weakness in the dollar index and strength in the base metals complex. Besides, speculative interest in the commodity also seems to be rising in silver lifting prices.
On the MCX, silver prices gained by around 1 percent in line with strength in international markets and closed at Rs.44715/kg.

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver to trade sideways as traders remain at bay before the outcome of key data released tonight. The ADP data released last night has reinforced the view that labor market is growing in the US and the momentum is building to carry the optimism through the rest of the year. Meanwhile, U.S. data on jobs, unemployment and trade is expected tonight, while the outcome of European Central Bank policy meeting will also be announced. Weaker-than-expected data and continued stimulus measures would keep gold prices supported.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade sideways as markets remain cautious to the outcome of the data sets mentioned above.

Crude Oil

Encouraging signs of supply from Iraq and Libya has reinforced the view that supply in the oil markets is ample in turn oil prices corrected by around 0.6 percent and closed at $104.5/bbl. Oil prices traded around the lowest notch in the last three weeks despite a big draw in U.S. oil inventories.
Libyan export capacity looked likely to recover by about 500,000 barrels per day as rebels blockading eastern oil ports have agreed to reopen the remaining two terminals at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf.
On the MCX, crude prices declined by 1 percent in line with weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.6238/bbl
EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories declined by 3.2 million barrels for the week ending on 27th June 2014. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose 1 million barrels for the same time period.

Natural gas
U.S. natural gas futures lost about 2 percent on Wednesday on expectations for another big storage build and weather forecasts calling for heat in the East and West to end. After a record seven consecutive triple-digit injections, analysts forecast utilities added about 100 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week.
On the MCX, natural gas prices declined by around 3 percent and closed at Rs.260.8/Mmbtu.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on profit booking at higher levels and no supply disturbance coming out of Iraq or Libya. Besides, the geo-political tensions has also eased down a bit leading to correction in oil prices as oil market realizes that further direction would be decided by the non-farm payrolls data and host of data sets to be released from the US.
On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade on a lower note in line with weakness in international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note yesterday owing to gain in nonfarm payrolls data from the US. Further, positive housing and construction data from UK supported gains.
However, mixed economic data from euro Zone capped sharp gains in prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals higher but Rupee appreciation restricted sharp upside movement.

LME Copper jumped by 1.8 percent and hit a four-month high of $7144.5/tonne taking cues from jump in U.S. jobs data that signaled a strengthening recovery in the world's largest economy, boosting demand prospects for the metal. In addition, increased fund buying owing to brightening demand outlook supported gains.
Further, sharp losses were restricted owing to weak manufacturing data from Euro Zone and 1.3 percent gain in inventories to 156,775 tonnes could not cap gains.
MCX Copper prices jumped by 1.2 percent yesterday and closed at Rs.432.8/kg but Rupee appreciation prevented sharp gains.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade higher owing to estimates of decent nonfarm payrolls data after jump in ADP nonfarm employment change last night followed by positive trade balance data from the US in the evening session.
Further, estimates of unemployment rate being unchanged at 6.3 percent will be supportive and in case, rates fall below expected, then this will likely give a boost to Copper prices.
In the Indian markets, sharp gains will be capped owing to Rupee appreciation.

Important Events DATA for Today
Indicator -----------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Non-Manufacturing PMI ------------China------- 6:30am 55.0 - 55.5 High
HSBC Services PMI--------------- China --------7:15am 53.1 - 50.7 Medium
Spanish Services PMI ---------------Euro--------- 12:45pm - 56.3 55.7 Medium
Italian Services PMI -----------------Euro--------- 1:15pm - 52.3 51.6 Medium
Services PMI------------------------ UK----------- 2:00pm - 58.1 58.6 High
Retail Sales m/m ----------------------Euro------- 2:30pm - 0.3% 0.4% Medium
Minimum Bid Rate --------------------Euro------- 5:15pm - 0.15% 0.15% High
ECB Press Conference -----------------Euro-------- 6:00pm - - - High
Non-Farm Employment Change --------US--------- 6:00pm - 214K 217K High
Trade Balance------------------------- US -----------6:00pm - -45.1B -47.2B High
Unemployment Claims ------------------US--------- 6:00pm - 314K 312K High
Unemployment Rate--------------------- US------- 6:00pm - 6.3% 6.3% High
Average Hourly Earnings m/m ----------US-------- 6:00pm - 0.2% 0.2% Medium
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ---------US---------- 7:30pm - 56.2 56.3 High

Technical Outlook for evening session – 3rd July’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)

News and Analysis
Officials reveal Decheng Mining pledged same metal thrice.
Libya to make available another 500,000 bbl per day for export.
UK’s Services PMI declined to 57.7-mark in June.

International Commodities


We expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways before the NFP data prints in. Market expectations are that NFP data would be above 200,000 for continuous 5 months in a row. If this happens it can lead to correcting in precious metals and vice-versa.
Crude prices are expected to trade lower on account of profit booking at higher levels and ease of geo-political tensions in Ukraine and no tensions in Iraq for the time being.
Base metals are likely to trade on a positive note owing to estimates of favorable employment data from the US in the evening session.
Technical Outlook for evening session – 3rd July’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)



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