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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 04 August 2014
Commodity Exchange Contract----- Trend---- S2----- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------ Oct---------Down----28000----28100----28222----28330----28450
Spot Gold-----------------------------Down----1281----1287----1293.20----1299----1305
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----Sept-----Down----25350----25430----25511----25600----25680
Silver----MCX----Sept---------------Down----43750----44100----44427----44700----45000
Spot Silver----------------------------Down----19.95----20.15----20.319----20.46----20.65
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug-----Down----3970----4000----4027----4055----4080
Base Metal
LME----Copper----------------------Sideways----6970----7010----7060----7160----7210
Copper----MCX----Aug-------------Sideways----430----432----435.25----438----441
Zinc----MCX----Aug----------------Sideways----141.50----142.30----143.20----144.00----144.80
Lead----MCX----Aug---------------Sideways----134.50----135.40----136.25----137.20----138.00
Aluminium----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----119.70----120.50----121.20----122.20----123.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug--------------Sideways----1103----1114----1126.70----1135----1146
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----Aug------------Down----5900----5940----5974----6000----6035
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept--------Down----96.50----97.20----97.88----98.50----99.30
Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug---------Down----5865----5890----5920----5950----5980
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug------Down----6500----6540----6570----6600----6650
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----103.60----104.10----104.67----105.20----106.00
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6320----6350----6383----6410----6435
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug------------Down----227----230----233.90----237----239
International Commodities
Overview
Gold
Spot gold prices fell last week as investors nervously awaited the end of U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday to see if the central bank will raise interest rates faster than expected. Comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen said earlier last month said that the central bank might raise rates sooner than expected if labor growth remained robust.
The Federal Reserve reaffirmed that it was in no rush to raise interest rates, even as it upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy and expressed some comfort that inflation was moving up toward its target. After a two-day meeting, Fed policymakers took note of both faster economic growth and a decline in the unemployment rate, but expressed concern about remaining slack in the labor market.
The U.S. economy rebounded sharply in the second quarter as consumers stepped up spending and businesses restocked. Gross domestic product expanded at a 4 percent annual rate after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter.
In the Indian markets, gold prices gained by around 0.42 percent in the last week and closed at Rs.28054/10 gms.
Silver
Silver prices in the international markets fell by around 1.89 percent taking cues from weakness in gold prices. Sharp decline in Nickel prices by more around 4 percent exacerbated the fall in silver prices.
On the MCX, silver prices gained by around 0.33 percent owing contrary to the decline in international markets and closed at Rs.44427/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a negative note as Federal Reserve has reinstated its confidence in the US economy and reduced the bond buying stimulus decreasing the metals appeal. In addition, the improved labor markets and decline in oil prices will also exert downside pressure. However, a word of caution as the NFP data released on Friday indicates stress in the labor market which can act as a positive factor for gold prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Nymex crude prices declined by last week on excess supplies in Europe and Asia and robust oil production in the OPEC nations. Prices continued to decline as CVR Refining said its 115,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Coffeyville, Kansas might be shut for as long as four weeks after a fire in a gasoline-related unit on Tuesday.
The refinery is a major consumer of benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. A lengthy shutdown of the Coffeyville refinery could temper demand for WTI crude.
On the flip side, the crisis between Russia and the West continued to keep the market on edge after the European Union and the United States imposed further sanctions against Moscow on Tuesday for its support of pro-Moscow rebels in Ukraine.
However, analysts remained dubious on whether the new economic sanctions on Moscow would have any immediate impact on Russian oil exports. In the international markets, crude oil prices declined by more than 4 percent and closed at $97.88/bbl.
On the domestic bourses, prices fell by around 2.86 percent in the last week taking cues from weakness in International markets.
Outlook Energy
Oil prices have steadily eased after hitting multi-month highs in June on world political tensions. However, ample supplies of crude by the OPEC, rising supplies in the US, build up of gasoline inventories in the US and lengthy shutdown at a Kansas oil refinery are all indications that crude prices will correct further in today’s session.. Meanwhile, In Europe, traders are watching how sanctions will affect oil exports from Russia.
On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded largely traded on a negative note last week on the back of mixed economic data from the US and Euro Zone. Also, mixed trend in LME inventories along with strength in the DX acted as a negative factor.
However, positive manufacturing data from China along with strong recovery in the US economy as affirmed by the FOMC restricted sharp fall in prices.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals except Lead traded on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices fell by 0.7 percent last week owing to unfavorable jobs data from the US and weak manufacturing data from Euro Zone. Further, surplus concerns as the world's top copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc clinched a deal with the Indonesian government to allow the miner to resume copper concentrate exports in August coupled with rise in risk aversion in the markets acted as negative factors.
However, decline in LME inventories by more than 3 percent along with strong rebound in the US and China restricted sharp fall in prices. The red metal touched a weekly low of $7045/tonne before closing at $7076.5/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices gained 0.8 percent taking cues from Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.435.3/kg on Friday.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a negative note today as rise in risk aversion after Portugal’s central bank took control of Banco Espirito Santo SA in a 4.9 billion-euro bailout that will leave junior bondholders with losses along with rising supply concerns will exert downside pressure on prices. Also, weak employment data from the US fuelled concerns regarding uneven recovery in the economy and will act as a negative factor.
MCX Copper prices will trade on a negative note today taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator ------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Spanish Unemployment Change --Euro ------12:30pm ------------ - -122.7K Medium
Halifax HPI m/m----------------- UK-------- 4th-8th --------------- - -0.6% Medium
Construction PMI---------------- UK-------- 2:00pm ----------------- - 62.6 High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 04 August 2014
Commodity Exchange Contract----- Trend---- S2----- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------ Oct---------Down----28000----28100----28222----28330----28450
Spot Gold-----------------------------Down----1281----1287----1293.20----1299----1305
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----Sept-----Down----25350----25430----25511----25600----25680
Silver----MCX----Sept---------------Down----43750----44100----44427----44700----45000
Spot Silver----------------------------Down----19.95----20.15----20.319----20.46----20.65
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug-----Down----3970----4000----4027----4055----4080
Base Metal
LME----Copper----------------------Sideways----6970----7010----7060----7160----7210
Copper----MCX----Aug-------------Sideways----430----432----435.25----438----441
Zinc----MCX----Aug----------------Sideways----141.50----142.30----143.20----144.00----144.80
Lead----MCX----Aug---------------Sideways----134.50----135.40----136.25----137.20----138.00
Aluminium----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----119.70----120.50----121.20----122.20----123.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug--------------Sideways----1103----1114----1126.70----1135----1146
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----Aug------------Down----5900----5940----5974----6000----6035
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept--------Down----96.50----97.20----97.88----98.50----99.30
Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug---------Down----5865----5890----5920----5950----5980
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug------Down----6500----6540----6570----6600----6650
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----103.60----104.10----104.67----105.20----106.00
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6320----6350----6383----6410----6435
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug------------Down----227----230----233.90----237----239
International Commodities
Overview
- India’s HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 53-mark in July.
- LME Copper stocks plunged by more than 3 percent last week.
- US Non-Farm Employment Change drop by 89,000 to 209,000 in July.
- UK’s Manufacturing PMI fell by 2.1 points to 55.4-mark in last month.
Gold
Spot gold prices fell last week as investors nervously awaited the end of U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday to see if the central bank will raise interest rates faster than expected. Comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen said earlier last month said that the central bank might raise rates sooner than expected if labor growth remained robust.
The Federal Reserve reaffirmed that it was in no rush to raise interest rates, even as it upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy and expressed some comfort that inflation was moving up toward its target. After a two-day meeting, Fed policymakers took note of both faster economic growth and a decline in the unemployment rate, but expressed concern about remaining slack in the labor market.
The U.S. economy rebounded sharply in the second quarter as consumers stepped up spending and businesses restocked. Gross domestic product expanded at a 4 percent annual rate after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter.
In the Indian markets, gold prices gained by around 0.42 percent in the last week and closed at Rs.28054/10 gms.
Silver
Silver prices in the international markets fell by around 1.89 percent taking cues from weakness in gold prices. Sharp decline in Nickel prices by more around 4 percent exacerbated the fall in silver prices.
On the MCX, silver prices gained by around 0.33 percent owing contrary to the decline in international markets and closed at Rs.44427/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a negative note as Federal Reserve has reinstated its confidence in the US economy and reduced the bond buying stimulus decreasing the metals appeal. In addition, the improved labor markets and decline in oil prices will also exert downside pressure. However, a word of caution as the NFP data released on Friday indicates stress in the labor market which can act as a positive factor for gold prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Nymex crude prices declined by last week on excess supplies in Europe and Asia and robust oil production in the OPEC nations. Prices continued to decline as CVR Refining said its 115,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Coffeyville, Kansas might be shut for as long as four weeks after a fire in a gasoline-related unit on Tuesday.
The refinery is a major consumer of benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. A lengthy shutdown of the Coffeyville refinery could temper demand for WTI crude.
On the flip side, the crisis between Russia and the West continued to keep the market on edge after the European Union and the United States imposed further sanctions against Moscow on Tuesday for its support of pro-Moscow rebels in Ukraine.
However, analysts remained dubious on whether the new economic sanctions on Moscow would have any immediate impact on Russian oil exports. In the international markets, crude oil prices declined by more than 4 percent and closed at $97.88/bbl.
On the domestic bourses, prices fell by around 2.86 percent in the last week taking cues from weakness in International markets.
Outlook Energy
Oil prices have steadily eased after hitting multi-month highs in June on world political tensions. However, ample supplies of crude by the OPEC, rising supplies in the US, build up of gasoline inventories in the US and lengthy shutdown at a Kansas oil refinery are all indications that crude prices will correct further in today’s session.. Meanwhile, In Europe, traders are watching how sanctions will affect oil exports from Russia.
On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded largely traded on a negative note last week on the back of mixed economic data from the US and Euro Zone. Also, mixed trend in LME inventories along with strength in the DX acted as a negative factor.
However, positive manufacturing data from China along with strong recovery in the US economy as affirmed by the FOMC restricted sharp fall in prices.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals except Lead traded on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices fell by 0.7 percent last week owing to unfavorable jobs data from the US and weak manufacturing data from Euro Zone. Further, surplus concerns as the world's top copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc clinched a deal with the Indonesian government to allow the miner to resume copper concentrate exports in August coupled with rise in risk aversion in the markets acted as negative factors.
However, decline in LME inventories by more than 3 percent along with strong rebound in the US and China restricted sharp fall in prices. The red metal touched a weekly low of $7045/tonne before closing at $7076.5/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices gained 0.8 percent taking cues from Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.435.3/kg on Friday.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a negative note today as rise in risk aversion after Portugal’s central bank took control of Banco Espirito Santo SA in a 4.9 billion-euro bailout that will leave junior bondholders with losses along with rising supply concerns will exert downside pressure on prices. Also, weak employment data from the US fuelled concerns regarding uneven recovery in the economy and will act as a negative factor.
MCX Copper prices will trade on a negative note today taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator ------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Spanish Unemployment Change --Euro ------12:30pm ------------ - -122.7K Medium
Halifax HPI m/m----------------- UK-------- 4th-8th --------------- - -0.6% Medium
Construction PMI---------------- UK-------- 2:00pm ----------------- - 62.6 High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
