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31 March 2014 Technical Levels for Metals and Energy

Commodity Exchange Contract Trend----- S2--------- S1 -------LTP-------- R1-------- R2 
Bullions 
Gold-------- MCX -----Apr------ UP-------- 28100---- 28250 ---28380----- 28600---- 28850
Spot Gold --------------------------UP-------- 1282----- 1289-----1295------- 1298------ 1305 
Gold Hedge NCDEX-- May---- Down------24840 ----24970 ---25088----- 25150---- 25280 
Silver------- MCX -----May -----UP-------- 42100-----42400--- 42759------ 43100 ----43500 
Spot Silver------------------------- UP-------- 19.40 -----19.60--- 19.78------- 19.90 -----20.10 
Silver Hedge NCDEX Apr ------Down -----3765 ------3790---- 3824.00---- 3854------ 3890 
Base Metals 

 
LME Copper -----------------------Sideways 6520 ------6590 ----6650-------- 6680------ 6730 
Copper------ MCX ----Apr -------Sideways 397 --------401----- 404.60------ 407-------- 410 
Zinc--------- MCX---- Mar -------Sideways 116.00----- 117.00 ---118.10 ----119.00---- 120.00 
Lead ---------MCX---- Mar -------Sideways 120.50----- 121.80--- 122.85---- 123.50 ----124.50 
Aluminium -MCX---- Mar------- Down -----101.50---- 102.50---- 103.20---- 104.00---- 104.80 
Nickel------- MCX---- Mar------- Down----- 929 -------937------- 944.10----- 952-------- 960 
Energy 
Crude Oil ---MCX ----Apr------- Sideways-- 6038------ 6080----- 6115------- 6150------- 6190 
Crude Oil--- NYMEX May ------Sideways-- 100.10---- 100.80 ---101.44 ----102.00---- 102.70 
Brent Crude Oil MCX Apr------- Sideways --6498------ 6540----- 6575------- 6610------ 6650 
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX May --Sideways --106.60---- 107.20---- 107.86 ---108.40---- 109.10 
Natural Gas MCX----- Apr -------Down------ 264-------- 267------- 270.5------- 272------- 276

Outlook Bullions
On an intraday basis, we expect precious metals prices to trade sideways. Sharp upside in the prices will be capped as growth in the US economy has raised the prospects of dollar to strengthen in turn exerting downside pressure on prices. Also, prices will be cushioned on strong demand from China and indications that the European Central Bank may support more economic stimulus measures.

Natural Gas
US natural gas closed up by around 3.94 percent after the government data released reported a slightly bigger than expected withdrawal of inventories from storage.
Natural Gas inventory update
The US Energy Department (EIA) released its weekly inventories report last night showed that natural gas inventories declined by 57 bcf which is 90 bcf below a year earlier and well above five year average of 7 Bcf.


Outlook energy
Positive economic momentum in the US has raises prospects of growth in turn hopes of high demand for energy. In addition the sanctions imposed by the US on Russia may cause disruptions of supplies in crude markets. U.S. crude, will continued its upward trend following Wednesday's data that showed a further drain in oil inventories at the Cushing, which hit their lowest level since January 2012. In addition, Low supply out of Libya and Nigeria lent further support to Brent crude prices.
On the MCX, prices will trade positive tracking cues from international markets and the escalation of geo-political tensions.


Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a mixed note today as weak industrial production data from Japan along with strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on prices. Also, estimates of unfavorable German retail sales data will act as a negative factor.
While on the other hand, estimates of positive Chicago PMI data from the US in the evening session coupled with upbeat market sentiments will cushion sharp downside or even reversal in prices.



International Commodities
Monday, March 31, 2014
Important Events DATA for Today


Indicator --------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact 
Prelim Industrial Production m/m--- Japan ----5:20am---- (-2.3%) --3.6% ----3.8% Medium 
German Retail Sales m/m------------- Euro ----31st – 3rd --------- (-0.3%) --(-1.7%) Medium 
Net Lending to Individuals m/m----- UK------ 2:00pm -------------- 2.3B---- 2.1B--- Medium 
CPI Flash Estimate y/y---------------- Euro----- 2:30pm ------------- 0.6%----- 0.7%-- High 
Chicago PMI---------------------------- US------- 7:15pm ------------- 59.2------ 59.8 ---Medium 
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks--------------- US------ 7:25pm ------------------------------- - - High



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