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Update Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 08 May 2014 Intraday Commodity tips

Commodity---------- Exchange Contract Trend-------- S2------- S1-------- LTP--------- R1 ------------R2
Bullions
Gold -----------------MCX ------June------ Up ---------28300---- 28400---- 28520------ 28650 ----28800
Spot Gold -------------------------------------Up --------1280------ 1285 ------1290 ------1296-------- 1303
Gold Hedge ----------NCDEX---- May -----Up----- 24920 ----25010---- 25117 -----25230----- 25360
Silver ------------------MCX-------- July -----Up-----41200 ----41500----- 41928---- 42200----- 42500
Spot Silver -----------------------------------Up------ 18.90----- 19.10----- 19.28----- 19.40------- 19.60
Silver Hedge------- NCDEX---- June----- Down--- 3760 ------3790------ 3829 ------3850 ------3880
Base Metals 



LME Copper ----------------------------Sideways ---------6610----- 6650 -----6688----- 6720 -------6770
Copper ------MCX------- June------- Down -------401-------- 403 ------405.35------- 407------- 410
Zinc ---------MCX -------May --------Sideways---- 120.00 -----121.00----- 121.95--- 123.00 --124.00
Lead ---------MCX ------May -------Down -------122.50 ------123.50------ 124.55----- 125.50-- 126.50
Aluminium MCX -------May --------Down -------102.50 -----103.50------ 104.40--- 105.50--- 106.50
Nickel -----MCX --------May -------Sideways -----1104------- 1113-------- 1121.60 ----1130---- 1140
Energy
Crude Oil ------MCX----- May ------Down --------5940------- 5990--------- 6033------- 6080---- 6120
Crude Oil----- NYMEX---- June ----Down -----99.30--------- 100.10------ 100.88----- 101.60-- 102.30
Brent Crude Oil MCX -----May------ Sideways--- 6600--------- 6650--- --6695---- 6740---- 6780
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX--- June ---Sideways --106.50---- 107.30 -----108.07---- 108.80---- 109.40
Natural Gas----- MCX----- May -----Down------- 278 ------280--------- 283.80 -------286 -------290


Outlook gold and silver
On an intraday basis, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a sideways to higher note on ease of geo-political tensions and continuous outflows from the SPDR gold holding trust. Besides strength in the DX on account of Janet Yellen comments and reassertion of US economy on a stronger path can also exert downside pressure on prices.
In addition, the physical demand from China remains weak as Chinese bank are discouraging importing banks from purchasing big quantities can also act as a negative factor.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade weaker on opening taking cues from weak international markets.


EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories declined by 1.8 million barrels to 397.6 million for the week ending on 2nd May 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.6 million barrels whereas distillate inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels for the same time period.
Natural Gas inventory forecastThe EIA is scheduled to release the weekly natural gas inventories tonight at 8PM IST and inventories are expected to gain by 71BCF.
Outlook
crude oil  
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade sideways on escalation of violence in Libya and unexpected drop in crude inventories. Janet yellens comment to end bond purchases signals that US is on a path of growth trajectory and labor market also seems to be improving with unemployment rate at 6.3 percent below the Fed’s threshold mark of 6.5 also acts as a positive factor. However sharp gains in prices will be capped on account of high inventories in the US and exert downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, crude prices are expected to trade positive taking cues from strong international markets.

Outlook Copper
We expect LME Copper prices to trade on a positive note today on the back of positive economic data from the US and Euro Zone. Also, upbeat market sentiments along with weakness in the DX will support gains.
In the latter part of trade, prices will take cues from Janet Yellen’s statements if any.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.


Important Events for Today
Indicator----------------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous-- Impact 

Trade Balance---------------------------- China ----Tentative ---18.5B--- 15.2B ---7.7B--- High 
German Industrial Production m/m ----Euro ------11:30am - ------------0.2% ------0.4% Medium 
French Bank Holiday--------------------- Euro------ All Day - - ----------------------------- - 
Halifax HPI m/m -------------------------UK --------8th – 9th -------------- 0.8%---( -1.1%) Medium 
Asset Purchase Facility ------------------UK-------- 4:30pm - ------------375B --------375B High 
Official Bank Rate ------------------------UK --------4:30pm ------------- 0.5%-------- 0.5% High 
MPC Rate Statement ---------------------UK-------- Tentative - - ------------------------------ High 
Minimum Bid Rate ------------------------Euro------ 5:15pm - --------------0.25% ---0.25% High 
ECB Press Conference -------------------Euro -------6:00pm - -------------------------------- - High 
Unemployment Claims -------------------US---------- 6:00pm - ------------328K ------344K High 
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies---------------- US ---------7:00pm - -------------------------------- - High


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