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investment guru india commodity intraday tips 31 July

 investment guru india commodity intraday tips free mcx commodity tips live chart

Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 31 July 2014 
Commodity Exchange Contract----- Trend---- S2----- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2 
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Sideways----27700----27800----27934----28100----28200
Spot Gold----Sideways----1283----1288----1294----1302----1306
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----Sept----Sideways----25080----25180----25301----25450----25540
Spot Silver----Sideways----20.10----20.30----20.55----20.70----20.80
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3970----3990----4028----4050----4080
Base Metal

LME Copper----Up----6980----7045----7090----7120----7170
Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Down----6000----6040----6074----6120----6170
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----98.30----99.00----99.57----100.30----101.10
Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6070----6110----6149----6195----6245
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Down----6490----6530----6570----6610----6660
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----104.90----105.60----106.18----106.90----107.70
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6390----6430----6465----6510----6560
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug----Down----222----225----228.90----231----234

International Commodities

  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 218,000 in July.
  • Spanish Flash CPI fell by 0.3 percent in the current month.
  • US Advance GDP grew by 4 percent in second quarter of 2014.


Spot gold prices traded in a tight range on Wednesday and declined marginally by 0.26 percent on strength in the dollar index and investors anticipation of the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. Gold prices continued its decline as optimism over U.S. economic growth curbed safe-haven appetite for the metal.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reaffirmed it was in no rush to raise interest rates, even as it upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy and expressed some comfort that inflation was moving up toward its target. After a two-day meeting, Fed policymakers took note of both faster economic growth and a decline in the unemployment rate, but expressed concern about remaining slack in the labor market. Data on Wednesday also showed that the U.S. economy rebounded sharply in the second quarter as consumers stepped up spending and businesses restocked. Gross domestic product expanded at a 4 percent annual rate after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter.
On the MCX, gold prices gained marginally by 0.24 percent in contrary to the gains in international markets.
Investors renewed interest in Silver as an asset class led to rise in prices on Wednesday as it gained by around 0.3 percent in the international markets in contrary to the fall in gold prices. Strength in the base metals complex also led to the rally
On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.5 percent and closed at Rs.44480 taking cues from strength in international markets.

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold prices to trade on a lower note as the Federal Reserve has reaffirmed its view about growth and optimism in the US economy although concerns still remain in the labor market. Besides, the GDP data released last night gives more room for Fed to wind up its bond buying programme in turn exerting downside pressure on the yellow metal.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade on a weak note taking cues from weakness in international markets.

Crude Oil

Oil prices decline on both sides of the Atlantic with WTI oil prices declining by 0.7 percent and Brent crude oil declining by 0.5 percent on excess supplies in Europe and Asia while U.S. crude followed suit despite a larger-than-expected drop in nationwide stockpiles.
The bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stocks prompted a short rally, but both Brent and U.S. crude soon turned negative as concerns lingered about weak demand, excess supplies and mixed economic signals both in the United States and worldwide.
The crisis between Russia and the West continued to keep the market on edge after the European Union and the United States imposed further sanctions against Moscow on Tuesday for its support of pro-Moscow rebels in Ukraine. However, analysts remained dubious on whether the new economic sanctions on Moscow would have any immediate impact on Russian oil exports.
On the MCX, crude prices declined by around 0.1 percent taking cues from weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.6074/bbl

EIA inventory Update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 3.7 million barrels for the week ending on 25th July 2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.365 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 0.789 million barrels for the same time period.
Natural Gas inventory Forecast
EIA is due to release its Natural Gas inventory report tonight and there are wide expectations that U.S. utilities likely added 93 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage last week, continuing the record pace of injection
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade lower on account of profit booking and trading around the key $100 psychological mark. Ample supplies on one hand and the geo-political tensions between Russia and the West will see crude prices seesawing from positive to negative and vice-versa. Although the inventory report released last night by the EIA pointed towards healthy demand for crude, prices are taking cues from other factors. Meanwhile, the NFP data due tomorrow would be a key event that investors will watch for further trajectory in crude prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking weak cues from international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded largely traded on a positive note on Wednesday as Fed reaffirms its optimistic view about growth in the US economy. Also, the GDP data released from the US last night indicated that growth is gaining traction.
Aluminum was the biggest gained in the base metals pack as prices gained around 2percent taking cues from optimistic demand growth from the US economy
In the Indian markets, all the base metals largely traded on a positive note taking cues from strength in international markets

LME Copper prices gained by 0.8 percent yesterday as growth and optimism in the US economy points towards healthy demand from the largest consumer of copper.
Decline in the LME copper inventories coupled with overall strength in the base metals complex led to the rally. The red metal closed the session at $7129.5/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices gained by around 1.2 percent taking strong cues from international markets and closed at Rs.434.8/kg on Wednesday.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a positive note today as US economy is gaining traction which in turn can lead to high demand for the red metal supporting prices.
On the contrary, Freeport-McMoRan said on Wednesday it expects to "imminently" sign an agreement with Indonesia that would enable it to immediately resume copper concentrate exports which have been halted for more than six months.
MCX Copper prices will trade on a positive note today taking cues strength in international markets.

Important Events for Today
Indicator ------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Average Cash Earnings y/y--------- Japan---- 7:00am 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% Medium
German Retail Sales m/m----------- Euro----- 11:30am - 1.1% -0.6% Medium
Nationwide HPI m/m----------------- UK-------- 11:30am - 0.6% 1.0% Medium
French Consumer Spending m/m --Euro------- 12:15pm - 0.3% 1.0% Medium
German Unemployment Change---- Euro------ 1:25pm - -5K 9K Medium
CPI Flash Estimate y/y --------------Euro------- 2:30pm - 0.5% 0.5% High
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y-------- Euro------ 2:30pm - 0.8% 0.8% Medium
Unemployment Rate---------------- Euro -----2:30pm - 11.6% 11.6% Medium
Unemployment Claims-------------- US------- 6:00pm - 306K 284K High
Employment Cost Index q/q-------- US------- 6:00pm - 0.5% 0.3% Medium
Chicago PMI------------------------- US------- 7:15pm - 63.2 62.6 Medium

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