Technical Levels for Metals and Energy Thursday, March 20, 2014

Technical Levels for Metals and Energy Thursday, March 20, 2014
Commodity Exchange Contract Trend        S2         S1         LTP     R1        R2
Gold            MCX        Apr         Sideways 29700   29850   29981  30100   30250
Spot Gold                                    Sideways 1319     1325     1331    1336     1343
GoldHedge NCDEX    Mar        Sideways 26090   26220   26344   26440   26580
Silver          MCX        May        Down      44800    45200   45673   45900   46200
Spot Silver                                  Down      20.20     20.40    20.65    20.70    20.90
SilverHedge NCDEX  Apr         Down      4040      4070     4120.00 4140     4160
Base Metals

LME Copper                               Sideways 6360     6440     6514       6550    6600
Copper          MCX    Apr           Sideways 397       402       406.50    409       412
Zinc              MCX    Mar           Up            119.00 120.00   121.10    122.00  123.00
Lead             MCX    Mar           Up            125.50 126.50   127.40    128.50  129.50
Aluminium   MCX    Mar           Sideways 102.00 103.00   104.00    105.00  106.00
Nickel           MCX    Mar           Up            977      986       994.10     1002    1011
Crude Oil      MCX    Apr            Up           5980    6020      6063       6090     6130
Crude Oil      NYMEX May         Up           99.10   99.80     100.55   101.00  101.60
Brent Crude Oil MCX Apr          Sideways 6510    6550      6600      6620      6660
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX May    Sideways 104.70 105.40   106.10   106.50  107.10
Natural Gas MCX     Mar             Down       267      270       273.10    276       280

Outlook Gold Silver
Gold has lost nearly 4 percent in the last three sessions, partly due to profit-taking after its rally on tensions over Ukraine. The U.S. central bank also proceeded with its reductions to its massive bond-buying stimulus, announcing it would cut its monthly purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to $55 billion from $65 billion. A stronger dollar will also weigh on gold, with the dollar index jumping 0.7 percent yesterday. We expect gold to trade on weak note in today’s session. In the Indian markets rupee weakness will cushion the fall in gold prices.

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast
The US Energy Department (EIA) released its weekly natural gas inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and inventories are expected to show a buildup for the week ending 14th March 2014.

Outlook Energy
From intraday perspective, crude prices will trade higher on the back of positive sentiments with regards to the growth in the US economy. Also expectations of inventory to be drained at Cushing in the coming weeks also act as a supportive factor. In addition, the tensions between US and Russia have increased as United States warned Moscow that it was on a "dark path" to isolation as Russian troops seized two Ukrainian naval bases, including a headquarters in the Crimean port of Sevastopol where they raised their flag.
In the Indian markets, prices will trade stronger mixed on account of the rupee weakness and further developments in the Crimean region.

Outlook Base metal
We expect base metals prices to trade on a mixed note today as weak market sentiments due to another round of QE tapering by the US Federal Reserve coupled with strength in the DX will exert downside pressure in the prices.
While on the other hand, expectations of favorable industrial orders data from UK will act as a positive factor. Further, forecast for upbeat industrial orders data from the UK along with estimates of rise in existing home sales and Philly fed manufacturing index from the US in the evening session will support an upside in the prices.
In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will act as a positive factor for the prices.

International Commodities
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Important Events DATA for Today

Indicator                                          Country   Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous  Impact
German PPI m/m                             Euro       12:30pm         -         0.2%        -0.1%   Medium
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks                Japan       12:45pm        -             -              -         High
EU Economic Summit                    Euro         Day 1            -             -               -        Medium
CBI Industrial Order Expectations UK           4:30pm           -           5              3        Medium
Unemployment Claims                    US           6:00pm          -         327K       315K    High
Existing Home Sales                       US            7:30pm          -         4.65M     4.62M  High
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index     US            7:30pm          -          4.2          -6.3      High

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