Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 21 March 2014 Outlook

Technical Levels for Metals and Energy  
Commodity Exchange Contract Trend -----S2 ----S1------- LTP--- R1 -------R2
Gold ----------MCX -----Apr --------Down----- 29500 ---29650 -29751 -29900 --30050
Spot Gold ------------------------------Down ------1321--- 1327 --1332 ---1339 ----1345
GoldHedge --NCDEX --Mar --------Down -----25860 -25990 -26081 --26210-- 26340
Silver--------- MCX -----May --------Down ----44100 ---44500 -44992 -45300 --45600
Spot Silver ------------------------------Down ----19.90 ---20.10 ---20.30 --20.40 --20.60
SilverHedge- -NCDEX --Apr --------Down -----3990 ---4020 ---4074.00 -4100 -4120
Base Metals 

LME Copper ----------------------------Down ------6310 ---6370 ---6430 ---6450 -----6500
Copper ---------MCX -----Apr --------Down ------393 -----397 -----400.20 --402 ----405
Zinc ----------MCX--------- Mar ------Sideways --117.00 --118.00 -119.10 --120.00 -121.00
Lead -------MCX --------Mar ---------Sideways ---123.50 --124.50 --125.60 --126.50 --127.50
Aluminium -MCX ------Mar ---------Down --------101.00 --102.00 ---102.70 --103.50 -104.50
Nickel -------MCX ------Mar ---------Sideways ----950 ------958 -------966.70 ---972----- 979
Crude Oil --MCX -------Apr -----------Sideways ----6000 ---6040 ------6085 -----6130 ---6170
Crude Oil --NYMEX --May -----------Sideways ----97.00 ----97.70 ----98.46 ----99.10 ---99.80
Brent Crude Oil -MCX --Apr ---------Sideways -----6510 -----6550 ------6600 -----6640 ---6680
Brent Crude Oil -NYMEX --May ----Sideways ----104.70 ---105.30 ----106.11 ---106.80 ---107.40
Natural Gas ---MCX -----Mar ---------Down --------258 -------262 --------266.7 ------271 -----274

Outlook Gold Silver
Gold has lost nearly 4 percent in the last three sessions, partly due to profit-taking after its rally on tensions over Ukraine. This fall will continue in today’s session as investors start pricing in the interest rate hike in US as per the comments from the Janet Yellen. The U.S. central bank also proceeded with its reductions to its massive bond-buying stimulus, announcing it would cut its monthly purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to $55 billion from $65 billion. A stronger dollar will also weigh on gold, with the dollar index jumping 0.3 percent yesterday. We expect gold to trade on weak note in today’s session. In the Indian markets rupee strength will exacerbate the fall in gold prices.

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories update
The US Energy Department (EIA) released its weekly natural gas inventories report yesterday at 8:00pm IST and inventories declined by 48BCF for the week ending 14th March 2014.

Outlook Energy
From intraday perspective, crude prices will trade higher on the back of geo-political tensions back in forefront. In addition positive economic indicators from US also help crude prices to gain. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits hovered near three-month lows last week and factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region rebounded this month.
However ample inventories in the US as well as gasoline inventories at Amsterdam at near six year high makes supply side ample and can probably pull down prices in the evening session.
In the Indian markets, prices will trade mixed on account of the rupee strength and further developments in the Crimean region.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect base metals prices to trade on a mixed note today as upbeat market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor for prices. Further, favorable economic data from the US in yesterday’s trade will support an upside in the prices
While on the other hand, speculation of higher interest rates by the US next year will continue to exert downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will keep a check on prices.

International Commodities
Friday, March 21, 2014
Important Events DATA for Today
Indicator ----------------------Country Time (IST) Actual --Forecast --Previous --Impact
Bank Stress Test Results ----US ------1:30pm --------------------------- - ----------- Medium
Bank Holiday -----------------Japan ----All Day - - - - ------------------------------------------
Current Account --------------Euro -----2:30pm ------------- 18.4B--------- 21.3B --Medium
EU Economic Summit -------Euro -----Day 2 - - -------------------------------------- Medium
Public Sector Net Borrowing UK ------3:00pm ------------- 7.8B---------- (-6.4B) -Medium

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