26 March 2014 Technical Levels for Metals and Energy

Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 
Commodity Exchange Contract Trend----- S2------ S1------ LTP------ R1---------- R2 
Gold--------- MCX -----Apr------ Down--- 28600-- 28750-- 28898--- 29050--- 29200 
Spot Gold--------------------------- Down--- 1297 ----1304--- 1311-------1318----- 1325 
Gold Hedge NCDEX-- Mar------ Down--- 25150 --25280-- 25416-- 25550--- 25680 
Silver-------- MCX -----May----- Down---- 42800- 43200--- 43508-- 43900 ---44300 
Spot Silver------------------------- Down---- 19.60--- 19.80--- 19.95--- 20.10---- 20.30 
Silver Hedge NCDEX Apr------ Down ----3880---- 3920---- 3949.00 --3980---- 4020 
Base Metals 

LME Copper---------------------- Sideways 6440---- 6490----- 6579---- 6610 ----6670 
Copper------ MCX -----Apr -----Sideways --395----- 398 -----402.95---- 405---- 409 
Zinc ---------MCX -----Mar------ Sideways 117.50--- 118.50 --119.40-- 120.50-- 121.50 
Lead ---------MCX -----Mar ------Down---- 122.50--- 123.50 --124.40--- 125.40---126.50 
Aluminium --MCX ----Mar ------Down----- 101.50--- 102.50-- 103.35--- 104.50 ---105.50 
Nickel------- MCX----- Mar ------Down------ 952 -----960------ 969.5------ 980------ 991 
Crude Oil--- MCX -----Apr ------Down ------5940 ----5990----- 6024 -----6070------ 6111 
Crude Oil ----NYMEX May----- Sideways--- 97.90---- 98.80--- 99.36---- 100.10---- 100.80 
Brent Crude Oil MCX -Apr------ Down------ 6360-----6410----- 6450 -----6490------- 6630 
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX May ---Sideways 105.80--- 106.60 ---107.24--- 108.00----- 110.30 
Natural Gas --MCX ----Mar ------Sideways-- 259-------263 ------265.6------ 268--------- 271

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade lower as US economy is on path of growth trajectory indicated by the recent economic indicators. The US consumer confidence surged to a six-year high in March and house prices increased solidly in January indicating momentum in the economy. Besides, markets expectations of rising interest rates in US earlier than expected will pressurize the metal prices in the coming session. In the Indian markets, gold prices gold prices will fall further taking cues from international markets and rupee strength.

API Inventories Data
As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories gained by 6.3 million barrels to 367.0 million barrels for the week ending on 21st March 2014. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 267,000.
EIA Inventories Forecast
The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to gain by 2.7 million barrels for the week ending on 21st March 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 1.2 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to have fallen by 1.4 million barrels for the same period.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis we expect crude prices to trade on a weak note on expectations of rising inventories in the US. If inventories report due today shows a buildup that would make for the 10th straight weekly build which can exert downside pressure on prices.
While on the other hand, speculation that China will act to support its slowing economy and robust consumer confidence numbers in the U.S. can provide a floor for oil prices.
In the Indian markets, prices are expected to trade lower on appreciation in rupee and weak cues from international markets.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of upbeat market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. While on the other hand, estimates of mixed economic data from the US in the evening session will cap sharp gains or even reversal in prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide direction to prices.

International Commodities
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Important Events DATA for Today
Indicator ---------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks------ US 4:30am------------------------------------ - - - Medium
GfK German Consumer Climate -----Euro ----12:30pm------------ - 8.5------ 8.5------ Medium
Nationwide HPI m/m ------------------UK -----26th – 28th------------------- - - 0.6% ---Medium
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m---- US ------6:00pm -------------- 0.3% ----0.6%---- High
Durable Goods Orders m/m -----------US------ 6:00pm -------------- 1.1% -----1.0% ---Medium
Crude Oil Inventories------------------ US------ 8:00pm------------- - 2.7M----- 5.9M ----Medium

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