09 April Technical Levels for Metals and Energy

Commodity Exchange Contract-- Trend------ S2 -------S1------ LTP ------R1 -------R2 
Gold -------MCX---- June---- Sideways --28200--- 28300--- 28477--- 28650---- 28800 
Spot Gold ---------------------Sideways --1299 -----1304---- 1312----- 1320 -----1327 
Gold Hedge NCDEX May -----Sideways-- 25180--- 25270--- 25433--- 25580 ----25720 
Silver -------MCX ---May -----Sideways-- 42600 ---42900--- 43198 ---43400 ----43900 
Spot Silver--------------------- Sideways--- 19.70--- 19.90---- 20.04 ----20.10----- 20.30 
Silver Hedge NCDEX Apr----- Sideways--- 3850---- 3880 ----3908 -----3920 ------3970 
Base Metals 

LME Copper -------------------Up--------- 6540---- 6590----- 6650 ----6680------- 6760 
Copper -----MCX--- Apr------ Sideways--- 400 -----403------ 406.75--- 409------- 412 
Zinc ---------MCX--- Apr----- Up ---------120.00 ---121.00 ---122.00--- 123.00----124.00 
Lead --------MCX--- Apr------ Up-------- 122.80--- 123.80---- 124.80--- 125.80--- 126.80 
Aluminium ---MCX ---Apr -----Up ---------106.50----107.50---- 108.60--- 109.50 ---110.50 
Nickel -------MCX ---Apr -----Up ---------974-------982 -------990.30 ----997------ 1004 
Crude Oil ---MCX ---Apr------ Up ---------6070----- 6120------ 6162------- 6190---- 6230 
Crude Oil ---NYMEX May -----Up-------- 100.90---- 101.70---- 102.44----- 102.90---103.50 
Brent Crude Oil MCX Apr ------Up -------6480------ 6530------- 6575 ------6600 -----6640 
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX May-- Up -------106.20 ----107.00 -----107.72---- 108.10 ---108.80 
Natural Gas --MCX --Apr------ Up --------268 ------270--------- 273.60 ----276------ 279

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on account of escalating geo-political tensions between US and Russia. Besides the central bank buying gold has raised investor’s interest in the yellow metal. On the contrary fall in the SPDR holdings can cap sharp gain in prices as investors reduce their exposures in the ETF’s.
On the MCX, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a strong note taking cues from international markets and rupee movement

API Inventories Update
As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels for the week ending on 4th April 2014. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 293000 barrels.
EIA inventories forecast
The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to gain by 1 million barrels for the week ending 4th April.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a positive note on escalating tensions between US and Russia and weakness in the dollar index. Besides the inventory report due tonight will provide cues about the inventory situation of oil and oil products and that will decide further trajectory of crude prices.
On the MCX, we expect crude prices to trade positive tracking cues from international markets and rupee movements.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade on a mixed note today on the back of mixed global market sentiments. Also, FOMC meeting minutes in the evening session from the US will exert downside pressure on prices.
While on the other hand, positive trade balance data from Germany and UK will cushion sharp downside or even reversal in prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.

Important Events DATA for Today
Indicator -------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact 
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks US ------12:15am----------------------- - - - Medium 
German Trade Balance ----------Euro----- 11:30am -------- 18.0B ---17.2B--Medium 
New Loans----------------------China--- 10th-14th -------- 1000B ---645B-- Medium 
Trade Balance------------------- UK -----2:00pm ---------- (-9.3B)-- (-9.8B) Medium 
Crude Oil Inventories ------------US------ 8:00pm ---------- 1M----- (-2.4M) Medium 
10-y Bond Auction --------------US------ 10:30pm ---------------- - 2.73/2.9 Medium 

FOMC Meeting Minutes-------- US------- 11:30pm ----------------------- - - High

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