Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug--------- Sideways----- 26100----- 26200---- 26330------ 26500 ---26600 Spot Gold---------------------------- Up----------- 1261------- 1266------ 1272------ 1280----- 1285
Gold Hedge NCDEX ---July--------- Sideways----- 24110----- 24200----- 24322 -----24470--- 24570
Silver------ MCX ------July---------- Up -----------40700----- 41000------41251----- 41500 ---41800
Spot Silver---------------------------- Sideways ----18.90----- 19.10------ 19.18------ 19.30 -----19.50
Silver Hedge NCDEX --June--------- Sideways -----3680----- 3710 -------3734 -------3750 ----3780
LME Copper-------------------------- Down --------6626----- 6677------ 6725------- 6762----- 6813
Copper----- MCX ----June----------- Down --------390 ------393 --------395.80----- 398------- 401
Zinc ---------MCX ----June---------- Sideways----- 120.50 ---121.50----- 122.60---- 123.50-- 124.50
Lead --------MCX ----June---------- Down ---------120.00--- 121.00----- 122.00 ----123.00 --124.00
Aluminium ---MCX ---June -----------Sideways -----105.50 ----106.50---- 107.35 ----108.00-- 108.80
Nickel------ -MCX ---June -----------Down-------- 1050------ 1060------ 1070 ------1080 -----1090
Energy
Crude Oil---- MCX --June ------------Up -----------6220------ 6250 ------6290------ 6330----- 6380 Crude Oil ---NYMEX --July--------- Up -----------106.00 -----106.50 ----107.23---- 107.90-- 108.70
Brent Crude Oil MCX--- June-------- Up -----------6600------- 6630------ 6676 -----6710 ------6760
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX July --------Up ---------112.30------ 112.80 -----113.51--- 114.10 ----115.00
Natural Gas ---MCX ---June --------Up --------274----------- 278 --------281.9----- 284-------- 288
Bullion
Gold
Gold prices rose on Thursday notching a three week high on short covering and bargain buying at lower levels as has been the case in the past few trading sessions. In addition, escalating violence in Iraq has led to situation of civil war appealing bullions safe haven appeal. Iraq’s ruling government is calling on the U.S. for military aid, although such is not likely. The fear now is that violence in Iraq could spread to other Arab countries which will be supportive for gold prices.
On the MCX, gold prices rose by 1 percent taking strong cues from international markets and closed the session at Rs.26330/10gms.
Silver
Taking cues from strength in gold prices even spot silver prices rose by 1.8 percent and hit a three week high on Thursday on account of short covering and weakness in the dollar index. On the other hand, weakness in copper prices, the indicator of industrial momentum capped sharp gains in prices.
On the MCX, silver prices rose by 1.6 percent and closed at Rs.41251/kg.
Outlook Gold and Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of violence in Iraq which will be a supportive factor for gold prices. Besides, weakness in the dollar will also act as a positive factor. Renewed interest by the investors in SPDR gold trust will also aid the rise in gold prices in the coming sessions.On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking strong cues from international markets.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude and gas prices to trade on a positive note as escalation of violence in Iraq will be a boost for oil prices creating supply concerns. Besides, there are fears that this instability could spread to other parts of Iraq where major oil fields are located.
In addition, gasoline demand in the US for driving season will ensure that commercial crude inventories are drained in the coming weeks acting as a positive factor.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking strong cues from international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a negative note yesterday taking cues from unfavorable economic data from the US. Also, mixed global market sentiments coupled with mixed trend in LME inventories acted as negative factors.Further, positive industrial production data from the Euro Zone could not provide respite to the metals complex.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded lower owing to Rupee appreciation.
Outlook Copper
We expect LME Copper prices to trade lower today as mixed economic data from the US will exert downside pressure on prices. Also, the probe into China’s warehousing deals continues and will thereby hurt the demand for the red metal. Further, weak market sentiments along with strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on prices.However, favorable Industrial Production data from China will cushion sharp downside in prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide further direction to prices.
Important Events for Today
Indicator----------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
BOE Gov Carney Speaks------ UK -----1:30am - -------------------------- - High Monetary Policy Statement----- Japan---- Tentative - ----------------------- - High
Industrial Production y/y --------China----- 11:00am --------- 8.8% ----8.7% High
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y ----China---- 11:00am --------- 17.1% --17.3% Medium
BOJ Press Conference---------- Japan ----Tentative - - - ---------------------High
New Loans ---------------------China --13th -14th - -------750B ------775B Medium
PPI m/m ------------------------US-------- 6:00pm -------- 0.1%------ 0.6% High
Core PPI m/m------------------ US --------6:00pm -------- 0.2% ------0.5% Medium
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment US -------7:25pm - -------83.2------- 81.9 High
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