Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Spot----Gold---------------------------Sideways----1300----1307----1315----1321----1326
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----July-----Sideways----25180----25320----25481----25590----25690
Silver----MCX----July------------------Sideways----43700----44200----44529----44900----45200
Spot----Silver---------------------------Sideways----20.40----20.70----20.86----21.00----21.20
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----4050----4090----4128----4160----4190
Base Metals
LME----Copper-------------------------Up----6870----6920----6976----7012----7060
Copper----MCX----June---------------Up----412----415----417.85----420----423
Zinc----MCX----June------------------Up----129.50----130.50----131.40----132.50----133.50
Lead----MCX----June-----------------Up----126.00----127.00----128.00----129.00----130.00
Aluminium----MCX----June------------Up----109.00----110.00----111.00----112.00----113.00
Nickel----MCX----June---------------Sideways----1110----1120----1129.30----1140----1150
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July-------------Down----6260----6310----6364----6400----6440
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug--------Sideways----103.70----104.50----105.46----106.00----106.70
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----------Down----6290----6340----6398----6430----6510
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July--------Down----6630----6680----6738----6770----6810
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----111.30----112.10----113.07----113.60----114.30
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Down----6740----6790----6846----6880----6920
Natural----Gas----MCX----July---------Down----258----260----264.9----267----271
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Sideways----27350----27500----27672----27800----27900Spot----Gold---------------------------Sideways----1300----1307----1315----1321----1326
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----July-----Sideways----25180----25320----25481----25590----25690
Silver----MCX----July------------------Sideways----43700----44200----44529----44900----45200
Spot----Silver---------------------------Sideways----20.40----20.70----20.86----21.00----21.20
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----4050----4090----4128----4160----4190
Base Metals
LME----Copper-------------------------Up----6870----6920----6976----7012----7060
Copper----MCX----June---------------Up----412----415----417.85----420----423
Zinc----MCX----June------------------Up----129.50----130.50----131.40----132.50----133.50
Lead----MCX----June-----------------Up----126.00----127.00----128.00----129.00----130.00
Aluminium----MCX----June------------Up----109.00----110.00----111.00----112.00----113.00
Nickel----MCX----June---------------Sideways----1110----1120----1129.30----1140----1150
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July-------------Down----6260----6310----6364----6400----6440
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug--------Sideways----103.70----104.50----105.46----106.00----106.70
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----------Down----6290----6340----6398----6430----6510
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July--------Down----6630----6680----6738----6770----6810
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----111.30----112.10----113.07----113.60----114.30
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Down----6740----6790----6846----6880----6920
Natural----Gas----MCX----July---------Down----258----260----264.9----267----271
International Commodities
Overview
US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 82.5-mark in June.
Iraq’s oil exports in June were near record rates at 2.53 mn bpd.
French Consumer Spending increased by 1 percent in last month.
LME Copper inventories fell by 2.6 percent last week.
UK’s Current Account at a deficit of 18.5 billion Pounds in Q1 of 2014.
Bullion
Gold
At the start of the last week, spot gold prices traded near its two-month high of $1,321.90 on weak US equities and increasing violence in Iraq. The yellow metal climbed as investors switched out of equities after Germany's Ifo index of business sentiment fell more than expected in June. Gold later pared gains on encouraging U.S. new home sales and better consumer confidence data. Bullion prices rose on fears the Iraq conflict could escalate and a perceived lack of commitment by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, triggering a heavy bout of short covering.
Another report last Thursday showed the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell again last week. Prices came under pressure on comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that interest rate increases should come sooner rather than later.
In the Indian markets, gold prices rose marginally by around 0.04 percent in the last week. Gold prices touched a weekly high of Rs.27870/10 gms before closing at Rs.27672/10 gms on Friday.
Silver
In the international markets, the white metal rose by 0.77percent, touched a weekly high of $21.18/oz, and closed the week at $21.01/oz. Silver prices rose largely tracking strength in bullion prices as renewed interest by the speculators and weakness in the dollar index acted as a positive factor. Strength in the base metals complex on account of optimism in the US and Chinese economy also pushed the grey metal higher. On the MCX, silver price declined marginally 0.09 percent and closed at Rs.44529/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as the situation in Iraq seems to have eased down with no fear of oil exports disruptions. Spate of data releases in the recent weeks is indicating that optimism in the US economy remain intact although the growth momentum is slow as visible in the GDP data. Gold and silver needs fresh triggers apart from the geo-political tensions and the Iraq crisis to move further. On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways in line with international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Ease of fears over exports disruptions from Iraq and assurances from United Nations Iraq Special Envoy Nickolay Mladenov that Iraq's southern oilfields, which produce most of the nation's 3.3 million barrels per day, remained unaffected, cooled oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic.
Iraq ships 90 percent of its crude exports from southern terminals, which are far from the Sunni insurgency. The country's oil exports in June were near record rates at around 2.53 million barrels per day. The conflict in Iraq has added about a $3 per barrel risk premium into the Brent and U.S. crude oil market. On the NYMEX, WTI Crude oil prices declined by 1.42 percent touched a weekly low of $105.43/bbl and closed at $105.74/bbl.
On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 1.49 percent. Crude prices closed at Rs.6364/bbl on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.6348/bbl.
Natural gas
U.S. natural gas futures fell on Friday and ended the week more than 2 percent lower as a string of larger-than-average weekly injections has begun to ease concerns about adequate gas supply for winter.
Bearish sentiment continued to weigh on Friday as the June Fourth holiday was expected to dent industrial demand for natural gas. Over the next two weeks, U.S. weather models forecast slightly above-normal temperatures, according to forecast Thomson Reuters Analytics.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade sideways as the situation in Iraq has eased down a bit along with the buildup in crude inventory in the recent weeks. This indicates potential dip in demand from the US pressurizing crude prices. In addition, oil output in Libya has been increasing in the recent weeks easing fears of supply disruption.
On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade sideways in line with international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note in the last week on the back of optimism regarding the economic scenario in the US and China. Further, positive manufacturing data from the major consumers supported gains.
However, sharp gains were capped owing to indication by a Federal Reserve official that the U.S. interest rates could rise by March. Also, mixed economic data from Euro Zone along with rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments exerted downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher last week in line with international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices gained 1.7 percent last week taking cues from decline in inventories which fell by around 2.6 percent to the lowest levels since 2009. Also, favorable manufacturing data from the US and China added an upside to the prices.
However, Federal Reserve official signaled U.S. interest rates could rise by March capped sharp gains. China’s imports of refined copper fell 17 percent to 282,969 tons in May pointing towards falling demand of the red metal. Also, speculation of further drop as the Qingdao investigation may curb purchases from abroad by traders who use commodities as collateral to get loans gained traction. The red metal touched a weekly high of $6983.75/tonne and closed at $6933.8/tonne on Friday.
MCX Copper prices gained 0.6 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs. 422.15/kg before closing at Rs.417.90/kg in the last trading session.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade higher today on the back of estimates of favorable economic data from the US and Euro Zone. Also, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market sentiments support gains.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade higher in line with international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator------------------------------ Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Prelim Industrial Production m/m-------Japan--5:20am--0.5%--0.9%---2.8%--Medium--
German Retail Sales m/m---------------Euro--30th--–--1st-----0.8%---0.9%--Medium--
M3 Money Supply y/y-----------------Euro--1:30pm-----0.7%--0.8%--Medium--
Private Loans y/y--Euro----------------1:30pm------1.7%---1.8%--Medium--
Net Lending to Individuals m/m---------UK--2:00pm-----2.5B--2.4B--Medium--
CPI Flash Estimate y/y--Euro----------2:30pm-----0.6%--0.5%--High--
Core CPI Flash Estimate--y/y----------Euro--2:30pm-----0.7%--0.7%--Medium--
Chicago PMI----------------------------US--7:15pm--63.2--65.5--Medium--
Pending Home Sales m/m-------------US--7:30pm-----1.4%--0.4%--High
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