Technical Outlook for evening session – 10th July’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity----Unit----Support 2----Support 1----CMP----Resistance 1----Resistance 2
Gold Aug’14----Rs/10----gm----28250----28380----28495----28630----28740
Spot Gold----$/oz----1329----1336----1342.5----1350----1356
Silver Sept’14----Rs----/kg----45500----45900----46230----46650----47000
Spot Silver----$/oz----21.05----21.3----21.5----21.75----21.95
Crude Oil July’14----Rs----/bbl----6050----6080----6104----6140----6175
Nymex Crude Oil Aug’14 $/bbl----100.5----101.05----101.56----102.15----102.75
Natural Gas July’14----Rs----/mmbtu----246----249----251.6----255----258
LME Copper----$/tonne----7000----7040----7104----7150----4205
Copper Aug’14----Rs----/kg----427----429----432.55----435----438
Zinc July’14----Rs----/kg----133.6----134.5----135.5----136.2----137
Lead July’14----Rs----/kg----127.7----128.5----129.55----130.2----131
Aluminum July’14 Rs /kg----112.9----113.6----114.55----115.1----115.8
Nickel July’14----Rs----/kg----1129----1140----1153----1162----1175
International Commodities
European markets are trading on a negative note on the back of weak industrial activity in the region. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note and the US stock futures are trading in the red.
Gold continues to edge higher for consecutive second session today after minutes of the Federal Reserve's recent policy meet gave no indication of when U.S. interest rates will rise. Besides, the investment flow in to the SPDR gold trust continues to gain for last three days indicating positive sentiments. On the flip side, markets were also eyeing developments in India, the world's No.2 gold consumer after China, where the new government is expected to cut a record high import duty on the precious metal at the fiscal budget. However, the budget surprised everyone with no change in the import duty structure. On the MCX, gold prices gained by around 3 percent at Rs.28440
Spot silver prices have gained by around 2 percent in the international markets in line with strength in bullion prices. Lower interest rate in the US for a longer period of time has brought speculators back in action. However, weakness in the base metals pack is capping sharp rally. On the MCX, silver prices are up by 3 percent trading at Rs.46130/kg in line with strength in international markets.
Base metals on the LME are trading on a negative note today on the back of unfavorable economic data from China and Euro Zone. Also, strength in the DX along with mixed global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on prices. However, favorable trend in the LME inventories supported gains. MCX base metals traded lower owing to Rupee appreciation.
LME Copper prices declined 0.3 percent today on account of weak trade data from China, thereby increasing concerns of demand for the metal in the biggest consumer. Also, the industrial activity in Euro Zone has weakened thereby acting as a negative factor. However, decline of 0.6 percent in inventories restricted sharp fall. On the MCX, copper prices are trading marginally lower by 0.1 percent at Rs.431.10/kg
Faltering demand for gasoline in the US, resumption of Libya’s crude output and exports and ease of geo-political tensions have been the prime factors behind recent fall in oil prices (both Brent and WTI). Libya has restarted the 340,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) El Sharara field after protesters ended a four-month strike, which could double the country's current crude output. The U.S. benchmark has fallen in nine straight sessions, its longest such streak since December 2009. As speculators dumped Brent, its premium over U.S. crude touched its narrowest point in almost a month at $5.15, then widened to settle at $5.85.On the MCX, crude prices are trading lower by 0.11 percent.
Outlook
We expect gold and silver prices to trade positive as Fed indication that interest rates will stay lower for longer period of time will act as a positive factor. In the Indian markets, the bullion markets were surprised with no change in the import duty structure giving boost to gold prices.
Crude prices are also expected to trade lower on ease of geo-political tensions and ease supply constraints from Libya and Iraq.
Base metals are likely to trade lower owing to Chinese demand concerns following negative data from the country.
Important Events for Today
Indicator ------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
ECB President Draghi Speaks ---------Euro -----12:00am - ---------------------- - High
Core Machinery Orders m/m------------ Japan 5:20am -19.50% 0.9% -9.1% Medium
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m ----------Japan 5:20am 0.9% 1.9% -5.4% Medium
Trade Balance -------------------------China Tentative 31.6B 37.3B 35.9B High
French Industrial Production m/m------- Euro 12:15pm -1.7% 0.5% 0.3% Medium
ECB Monthly Bulletin ------------------Euro 1:30pm - - - Medium
Trade Balance --------------------------UK 2:00pm -9.2B -9.0B -8.9B Medium
Asset Purchase Facility ------------------UK 4:30pm - 375B 375B High
Official Bank Rate -----------------------UK 4:30pm - 0.5% 0.5% High
MPC Rate Statement --------------------UK Tentative - - - High
Unemployment Claims --------------------US 6:00pm - 316K 315K High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
Commodity----Unit----Support 2----Support 1----CMP----Resistance 1----Resistance 2
Gold Aug’14----Rs/10----gm----28250----28380----28495----28630----28740
Spot Gold----$/oz----1329----1336----1342.5----1350----1356
Silver Sept’14----Rs----/kg----45500----45900----46230----46650----47000
Spot Silver----$/oz----21.05----21.3----21.5----21.75----21.95
Crude Oil July’14----Rs----/bbl----6050----6080----6104----6140----6175
Nymex Crude Oil Aug’14 $/bbl----100.5----101.05----101.56----102.15----102.75
Natural Gas July’14----Rs----/mmbtu----246----249----251.6----255----258
LME Copper----$/tonne----7000----7040----7104----7150----4205
Copper Aug’14----Rs----/kg----427----429----432.55----435----438
Zinc July’14----Rs----/kg----133.6----134.5----135.5----136.2----137
Lead July’14----Rs----/kg----127.7----128.5----129.55----130.2----131
Aluminum July’14 Rs /kg----112.9----113.6----114.55----115.1----115.8
Nickel July’14----Rs----/kg----1129----1140----1153----1162----1175
International Commodities
- News and Analysis
- Government maintains fiscal deficit target to 4.1 percent.
- LME Copper inventories declined by 0.6 percent.
- Libya has restarted 340,000-bpd El Sharara field after strike ended.
European markets are trading on a negative note on the back of weak industrial activity in the region. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note and the US stock futures are trading in the red.
Gold continues to edge higher for consecutive second session today after minutes of the Federal Reserve's recent policy meet gave no indication of when U.S. interest rates will rise. Besides, the investment flow in to the SPDR gold trust continues to gain for last three days indicating positive sentiments. On the flip side, markets were also eyeing developments in India, the world's No.2 gold consumer after China, where the new government is expected to cut a record high import duty on the precious metal at the fiscal budget. However, the budget surprised everyone with no change in the import duty structure. On the MCX, gold prices gained by around 3 percent at Rs.28440
Spot silver prices have gained by around 2 percent in the international markets in line with strength in bullion prices. Lower interest rate in the US for a longer period of time has brought speculators back in action. However, weakness in the base metals pack is capping sharp rally. On the MCX, silver prices are up by 3 percent trading at Rs.46130/kg in line with strength in international markets.
Base metals on the LME are trading on a negative note today on the back of unfavorable economic data from China and Euro Zone. Also, strength in the DX along with mixed global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on prices. However, favorable trend in the LME inventories supported gains. MCX base metals traded lower owing to Rupee appreciation.
LME Copper prices declined 0.3 percent today on account of weak trade data from China, thereby increasing concerns of demand for the metal in the biggest consumer. Also, the industrial activity in Euro Zone has weakened thereby acting as a negative factor. However, decline of 0.6 percent in inventories restricted sharp fall. On the MCX, copper prices are trading marginally lower by 0.1 percent at Rs.431.10/kg
Faltering demand for gasoline in the US, resumption of Libya’s crude output and exports and ease of geo-political tensions have been the prime factors behind recent fall in oil prices (both Brent and WTI). Libya has restarted the 340,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) El Sharara field after protesters ended a four-month strike, which could double the country's current crude output. The U.S. benchmark has fallen in nine straight sessions, its longest such streak since December 2009. As speculators dumped Brent, its premium over U.S. crude touched its narrowest point in almost a month at $5.15, then widened to settle at $5.85.On the MCX, crude prices are trading lower by 0.11 percent.
Outlook
We expect gold and silver prices to trade positive as Fed indication that interest rates will stay lower for longer period of time will act as a positive factor. In the Indian markets, the bullion markets were surprised with no change in the import duty structure giving boost to gold prices.
Crude prices are also expected to trade lower on ease of geo-political tensions and ease supply constraints from Libya and Iraq.
Base metals are likely to trade lower owing to Chinese demand concerns following negative data from the country.
Important Events for Today
Indicator ------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
ECB President Draghi Speaks ---------Euro -----12:00am - ---------------------- - High
Core Machinery Orders m/m------------ Japan 5:20am -19.50% 0.9% -9.1% Medium
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m ----------Japan 5:20am 0.9% 1.9% -5.4% Medium
Trade Balance -------------------------China Tentative 31.6B 37.3B 35.9B High
French Industrial Production m/m------- Euro 12:15pm -1.7% 0.5% 0.3% Medium
ECB Monthly Bulletin ------------------Euro 1:30pm - - - Medium
Trade Balance --------------------------UK 2:00pm -9.2B -9.0B -8.9B Medium
Asset Purchase Facility ------------------UK 4:30pm - 375B 375B High
Official Bank Rate -----------------------UK 4:30pm - 0.5% 0.5% High
MPC Rate Statement --------------------UK Tentative - - - High
Unemployment Claims --------------------US 6:00pm - 316K 315K High
( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
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