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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 11 July 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Up----28200----28300----28496----28600----28750
Spot Gold-----------------------------Up----1323----1328----1337----1342----1349
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July------Up----25560----25650----25830----25920----26060
Spot Silver-----------------------------Up----21.00----21.20----21.41----21.50----21.70
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug------Up----4090----4110----4150----4175----4200
Base Metals

Crude Oil----MCX----July------------Sideways----6100----6140----6180----6210----6260
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----101.50----102.20----102.88----103.30----104.20
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6070----6110----6153----6180----6260
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July----Sideways----6470----6510----6550----6580----6630
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Sideways----107.40----108.00----108.74----109.20----110.00
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Sideways----6480----6520----6560----6590----6640
Natural Gas----MCX----July----Down----245----247----249.10----252----255

International Commodities

  • US Unemployment Claims fell to 304,000 for w/e on 4th July 2014.
  • Portugal’s financial health concerns spur gold safe haven appeal.
  • French Industrial Production declined by 1.7 percent in prior month.
  • Utilities added 93 bcf of Natural gas into storage last week.
  • UK’s Trade Balance was at a deficit of 9.2 billion Pounds in May.


Spot gold prices gained on Thursday after questions were raised about the health of Portugal's top-listed bank sparked worry that a new euro zone banking crisis might be in the offing. This lead to safe haven appeal for gold and prices gained by around 0.7 percent and closed at $1334.9/oz.
The scrutiny over Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo turned financial markets risk averse, with stocks on both Wall Street and in Europe ending lower. Espirito Santo Financial Group, the largest shareholder in Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo, suspended trading in its shares and bonds, citing "material difficulties" at parent company ESI. It was the first significant episode of contagion for European peripheral markets this year, and it curbed demand at Greece's second debt sale following its 2012 default. Gold also gained support from India's decision to keep the import duty on gold unchanged at a record 10 percent in its budget on Thursday. India's most-traded August gold contract rose as much as 3 percent on speculation that Indian jewellers, who were on the sidelines expecting a duty cut, will re-stock after the government's decision.
On the MCX, gold prices gained by around 3 percent and closed at Rs.28496/10gms.

Spot silver prices gained on Thursday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets like gold which in turn lifted speculative interest in silver. Strength in the base metals complex also lifted silvers appeal acting as a positive factor.
Silver prices on the MCX gained by around 3.2 percent and closed at Rs.46242/kg.

Outlook Bullion
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade higher as escalation of Portugal situation has appealed bullions safe haven status. The Euro area crisis is now in the forefront again and the contagion is likely to disturb the growth scenario in the region acting as a positive factor. In India, no change in import duty has surprised the Indian jewelers as large portion of the industry were expecting a cut in duty. This in turn further boosted prices and will continue to act as a positive factor in the coming session.

Crude Oil

Brent crude rebounded slightly after eight days of losses, while the WTI crude recovered from a nine-day losing streak, matching a slide in late 2009. While concerns over abrupt oil shortages from Iraq have eased since an Islamist insurgency raised the spectre of disruptions, traders remain on edge. Sunni insurgents battling forces loyal to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki broke into a military base northeast of Baghdad on Thursday.
In Libya, output has risen to 350,000 barrels per day because of an increase in production from the El Sharara field, where a protest ended earlier this month. Still, it will take months to ramp up production and more unrest is possible.
On the MCX, crude prices rose by around 1 percent and closed at Rs.6180/bbl.

Natural gas
U.S. natural gas futures lost about 1 percent on Thursday to a six-month low after the federal government said inventories grew a little more than expected. Utilities added 93 bcf of gas into storage last week as compared to expectations of 92 bcf.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade sideways after losing for continuous ninth session in a row. On one hand, the escalation of Portugal situation has raised demand concerns from the Euro area, while the restart of Libyan exports will ensure smooth supplies in energy markets.
At the same time, demand for crude has been low from European refiners whose margins have been squeezed by an influx of diesel from the United States, Russia and Asia. All the factors are likely to push crude prices down further in the coming session.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways in line with sideways trade in international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a mixed note yesterday owing to unfavorable economic data from China and Euro Zone. Also, weak market sentiments after missed debt concerns involving the parent company of Portugal’s largest bank Banco Espirito Santo fuelled health concerns of the economy acted as a negative factor. Further, mixed trend in inventories along with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices.
While on the other hand, decline in unemployment claims data from the US reaffirmed strong recovery in the US economy, thereby supporting gains in prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded mixed in line with international markets.

LME Copper prices traded higher by 0.7 percent yesterday as unemployment numbers in the US fell to a 5-week low, thereby signaling towards robust recovery in the job markets. Also, decline of 0.6 percent in inventories to 158,100 tonnes supported gains.
However, rise in risk aversion in market sentiments following default by the parent company of Portugal’s biggest bank along with negative industrial production data from Euro Zone restricted sharp upside. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7170.75/tonne before closing at $7170/tonne on Thursday.
MCX Copper prices jumped by 1.4 percent taking cues from Rupee depreciation and touched an intra-day high of Rs.437.8/kg in the last trading session.

Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade higher on the back of strong recovery seen in the US which brightens demand outlook in the second biggest consumer. Also, indication of lower interest rates to stay for longer will support gains in the red metal in absence of significant data in today’s session.
MCX Copper prices will take cues from trends in international markets.

Important Events for Today
Indicator -------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
FOMC Member Fischer Speaks --US------- 2:00am - - --------------------- Medium

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