Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 21 July 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------Aug---------Sideways----27700----27850----27993----28100----28220
Spot Gold----------------------------Up----1297----1304----1311----1316----1322
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July----Sideways----25040----25170----25306----25400----25510
Silver----MCX----Sept--------------Sideways----44200----44500----44931----45300----45600
Spot Silver---------------------------Sideways----20.50----20.70----20.90----21.00----21.20
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----4040----4060----4096----4120----4150
Base Metal
LME Copper------------------------Sideways----6925----6970----7026----7070----7120
Copper----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----420----423----426.15----429----432
Zinc----MCX----July---------------Sideways----136.00----137.00----138.20----139.20----140.00
Lead----MCX----July--------------Down----129.00----130.00----131.15----132.00----133.00
Aluminium----MCX----July---------Sideways----116.50----117.50----118.70----119.80----120.50
Nickel----MCX----July------------Down----1104----1115----1122----1135----1140
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July---------Up----6140----6180----6209----6240----6290
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug------Up----101.70----102.40----102.88----103.30----104.20
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July------Up----6190----6230----6259----6290----6370
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Up----6500----6540----6570----6600----6650
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Up----106.00----106.60----107.14----107.65----108.40
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Up----6455----6495----6524----6555----6605
Natural Gas----MCX----July---------Down----233----235----237.8----240----243
International Commodities
Overview
Bullion
Gold
Spot gold prices declined by 2 percent last week as receding fears over Portugal's banking sector and a gain in U.S. equities prompted investors to take profits after bullion's rally to 3-1/2 month highs last week. Portuguese bond yields fell last week after the country's biggest bank took steps aimed at reassuring investors of its stability, calming peripheral debt markets after their first episode of contagion this year.
Spot gold prices continued its decline over the week dropping below $1300 mark as bullion investors focused on a U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy report showing the central bank is set to end its bond-buying stimulus in October.
U.S. manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in more than two years in the second quarter, suggesting the economy was regaining enough momentum to lift growth throughout the year.
Strong U.S. economic outlook and fears that the Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates limited gains for the safe haven. Gold prices touched a weekly low of $1291.7/oz before closing at $1310.6/oz on Friday.
In the Indian markets, gold prices declined by around 1.3 percent in the last week but sharp downside was limited owing to Rupee depreciation.
Silver
Weakness in gold prices as Portugal fears receded led to a bout of selling as spot silver prices declined by around 3 percent in the last week and closed at $20.8/oz. also, traders realized that the recent positive run in the metal is not going to last long spurred selling. In addition, strength in the dollar index and weakness in Nickel prices pushed the grey metal lower. On the MCX, silver prices declined by 2.5 percent taking cues from weak international markets and closed at Rs.44931/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note aided by anticipation of increased geopolitical risks as the United States began demanding answers from Russia after a Malaysian plane was downed in eastern Ukraine. Also, increased concerns in Gaza along with spurt in SPDR holdings will support gains.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Nymex crude prices jumped by more than 2 percent last week owing to renewed violence in Libya that raised questions about the production from the nation. Meanwhile, protesters have shut down production at the eastern Libyan oil port of Brega, state firm National Oil Corp (NOC) said.
Oil prices received further support from strong Chinese economic data. The country's economy expanded at a 7.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter as a result of government stimulus measures, signaling expectations of increasing demand.
Despite ongoing fighting between militias in Tripoli, Libya's oil output has risen to 588,000 barrels per day (bpd), an increase of around 25 percent since the weekend.
The market also kept an eye on talks in Vienna over Tehran's nuclear program. Iran's oil supplies have been restricted by sanctions for several years, but an agreement could lead to a softening, or lifting, of those limits. Negotiators have set a July 20 deadline for a deal, but diplomats say the two sides are deeply divided and assume the talks will be given another six months.
On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 2.2 percent. Crude prices closed at Rs.6209/bbl on Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs.6264/bbl.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note continuing its gains from the previous session. Escalating tensions with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US will push crude prices higher.
However, sharp upside will be capped as money managers slashed their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions on New York and London exchanges by second-largest decline since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began reporting the data in 2009.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded lower last week as jitters over a possible bond default in China's construction sector triggered a round of profit taking after a Chinese builder warned its investors it may not be able to repay a $65 million debt possibly becoming the first borrower to default in the country's largest bond market and highlighting concerns over the construction sector. Also, unfavorable retail sales and housing data from the US along with weak economic data from Euro Zone acted as negative factors.
However, manufacturing data from the US turned out to be positive despite expectations of it slowing down along with favorable GDP data from China restricted sharp fall in prices. In addition, comments from the Fed policy makers that the bond buying programme will be winded up as soon as October 2014 is a progressive signal that economic optimism in the US economy is growing which in turn will create demand for the base metals.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded largely on a negative note taking cues from international trends.
Copper
LME Copper prices declined by 2.3 percent last week as the possible bond default in China’s construction sector raise alarms on the demand side for copper. Also, Anglo American, one of the largest mining companies, reported higher copper output for the first half of the year, thereby acting as a negative factor for prices. In addition, weak housing data from the US along with unfavorable data from Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices.
However, the FED policy makers are sure to wind up its bond buying programme by its October meeting owing to increasing optimism regarding the US economy along with rise in China’s GDP cushioned sharp fall. The red metal closed at $6993.5/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices fell by 2.4 percent and touched a weekly low of Rs.424.75/kg before closing at Rs.426.2/kg on Friday.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade sideways as Chinese default concerns along with rising Copper output will exert downside pressure on prices. On the contrary, weakness in the DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in the market sentiments will act as a positive factor for prices. MCX Copper prices will trade sideways today taking cues from international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator---------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Bank Holiday-------------------------- Japan All Day - - - - --------------------------
German Buba Monthly Report---------- Euro 3:30pm - - -------------------------- Medium
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Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------Aug---------Sideways----27700----27850----27993----28100----28220
Spot Gold----------------------------Up----1297----1304----1311----1316----1322
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July----Sideways----25040----25170----25306----25400----25510
Silver----MCX----Sept--------------Sideways----44200----44500----44931----45300----45600
Spot Silver---------------------------Sideways----20.50----20.70----20.90----21.00----21.20
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----4040----4060----4096----4120----4150
Base Metal
LME Copper------------------------Sideways----6925----6970----7026----7070----7120
Copper----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----420----423----426.15----429----432
Zinc----MCX----July---------------Sideways----136.00----137.00----138.20----139.20----140.00
Lead----MCX----July--------------Down----129.00----130.00----131.15----132.00----133.00
Aluminium----MCX----July---------Sideways----116.50----117.50----118.70----119.80----120.50
Nickel----MCX----July------------Down----1104----1115----1122----1135----1140
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----July---------Up----6140----6180----6209----6240----6290
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug------Up----101.70----102.40----102.88----103.30----104.20
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July------Up----6190----6230----6259----6290----6370
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Up----6500----6540----6570----6600----6650
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Aug----Up----106.00----106.60----107.14----107.65----108.40
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Up----6455----6495----6524----6555----6605
Natural Gas----MCX----July---------Down----233----235----237.8----240----243
International Commodities
Overview
- US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 81.3-mark in July.
- SPDR gold holdings rose by 0.22 percent to 805.14 tonnes on Friday.
- Euro Zone Current Account was at 19.5 billion Euros in May.
- Libya's oil output has risen to 588,000 bpd despite violence in Tripoli.
- Japanese banks closed today on the observance of Marine Day.
Bullion
Gold
Spot gold prices declined by 2 percent last week as receding fears over Portugal's banking sector and a gain in U.S. equities prompted investors to take profits after bullion's rally to 3-1/2 month highs last week. Portuguese bond yields fell last week after the country's biggest bank took steps aimed at reassuring investors of its stability, calming peripheral debt markets after their first episode of contagion this year.
Spot gold prices continued its decline over the week dropping below $1300 mark as bullion investors focused on a U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy report showing the central bank is set to end its bond-buying stimulus in October.
U.S. manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in more than two years in the second quarter, suggesting the economy was regaining enough momentum to lift growth throughout the year.
Strong U.S. economic outlook and fears that the Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates limited gains for the safe haven. Gold prices touched a weekly low of $1291.7/oz before closing at $1310.6/oz on Friday.
In the Indian markets, gold prices declined by around 1.3 percent in the last week but sharp downside was limited owing to Rupee depreciation.
Silver
Weakness in gold prices as Portugal fears receded led to a bout of selling as spot silver prices declined by around 3 percent in the last week and closed at $20.8/oz. also, traders realized that the recent positive run in the metal is not going to last long spurred selling. In addition, strength in the dollar index and weakness in Nickel prices pushed the grey metal lower. On the MCX, silver prices declined by 2.5 percent taking cues from weak international markets and closed at Rs.44931/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note aided by anticipation of increased geopolitical risks as the United States began demanding answers from Russia after a Malaysian plane was downed in eastern Ukraine. Also, increased concerns in Gaza along with spurt in SPDR holdings will support gains.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Nymex crude prices jumped by more than 2 percent last week owing to renewed violence in Libya that raised questions about the production from the nation. Meanwhile, protesters have shut down production at the eastern Libyan oil port of Brega, state firm National Oil Corp (NOC) said.
Oil prices received further support from strong Chinese economic data. The country's economy expanded at a 7.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter as a result of government stimulus measures, signaling expectations of increasing demand.
Despite ongoing fighting between militias in Tripoli, Libya's oil output has risen to 588,000 barrels per day (bpd), an increase of around 25 percent since the weekend.
The market also kept an eye on talks in Vienna over Tehran's nuclear program. Iran's oil supplies have been restricted by sanctions for several years, but an agreement could lead to a softening, or lifting, of those limits. Negotiators have set a July 20 deadline for a deal, but diplomats say the two sides are deeply divided and assume the talks will be given another six months.
On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 2.2 percent. Crude prices closed at Rs.6209/bbl on Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs.6264/bbl.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note continuing its gains from the previous session. Escalating tensions with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US will push crude prices higher.
However, sharp upside will be capped as money managers slashed their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions on New York and London exchanges by second-largest decline since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began reporting the data in 2009.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded lower last week as jitters over a possible bond default in China's construction sector triggered a round of profit taking after a Chinese builder warned its investors it may not be able to repay a $65 million debt possibly becoming the first borrower to default in the country's largest bond market and highlighting concerns over the construction sector. Also, unfavorable retail sales and housing data from the US along with weak economic data from Euro Zone acted as negative factors.
However, manufacturing data from the US turned out to be positive despite expectations of it slowing down along with favorable GDP data from China restricted sharp fall in prices. In addition, comments from the Fed policy makers that the bond buying programme will be winded up as soon as October 2014 is a progressive signal that economic optimism in the US economy is growing which in turn will create demand for the base metals.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded largely on a negative note taking cues from international trends.
Copper
LME Copper prices declined by 2.3 percent last week as the possible bond default in China’s construction sector raise alarms on the demand side for copper. Also, Anglo American, one of the largest mining companies, reported higher copper output for the first half of the year, thereby acting as a negative factor for prices. In addition, weak housing data from the US along with unfavorable data from Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices.
However, the FED policy makers are sure to wind up its bond buying programme by its October meeting owing to increasing optimism regarding the US economy along with rise in China’s GDP cushioned sharp fall. The red metal closed at $6993.5/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices fell by 2.4 percent and touched a weekly low of Rs.424.75/kg before closing at Rs.426.2/kg on Friday.
Outlook Base Metals
We except LME Copper prices to trade sideways as Chinese default concerns along with rising Copper output will exert downside pressure on prices. On the contrary, weakness in the DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in the market sentiments will act as a positive factor for prices. MCX Copper prices will trade sideways today taking cues from international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator---------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Bank Holiday-------------------------- Japan All Day - - - - --------------------------
German Buba Monthly Report---------- Euro 3:30pm - - -------------------------- Medium
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( For any personal query mail me at support@mamatainfotech.com or call me at +91 9932242442, 9932461166 )
