Technical Outlook for evening session – 21st July’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity Unit ----Support 2---- Support 1---- CMP---- Resistance1---- Resistance 2
Gold----Aug’14----Rs/10----gm----27880----28000----28110----28230----28350
Spot----Gold----$/oz----1300----1307----1314----1321----1328
Silver----Sept’14----Rs----/kg----44700----45000----45225----45600----45900
Spot----Silver----$/oz----20.65----20.82----20.95----21.10----21.28
Crude----Oil----July’14----Rs----/bbl----6130----6150----6176----6210----6240
Nymex----Crude----Oil----Aug’14----$/bbl----100.9----101.45----101.95----102.55----103.1
Natural----Gas----July’14----Rs----/mmbtu----228----230----233.3----235----238
LME----Copper----$/tonne----6885----6926----6986----7030----7085
Copper----Aug’14----Rs----/kg----421----423----426.3----428----431
Zinc----July’14----Rs----/kg----136.5----137.2----138.25----138.9----139.8
Lead----July’14----Rs----/kg----129.2----130----131----131.6----132.5
Aluminum----July’14----Rs----/kg----118.5----119.2----119.75----120.6----121.3
Nickel----July’14----Rs----/kg----1100----1110----1123----1132----1145
Outlook
We expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as anticipation of increased geopolitical risks as the United States began demanding answers from Russia after a Malaysian plane was downed in eastern Ukraine.
Crude prices are expected to trade higher on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza along with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US.
Base metals are likely to trade sideways in the absence of major economic data in the evening’s session today. However, Chinese default concerns along with rising Copper output will exert downside pressure on Copper prices.
International Commodities
News and Analysis
European markets are trading on a negative note concerned by an escalation in tensions between Russia and the West and reports the Ukrainian army was moving on a major rebel stronghold. Asian markets were mixed and US stock futures are trading in the red.
Spot gold prices traded higher by 0.3 percent today as Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing intensified international pressure after pro-Russian rebels were blamed for downing a passenger jet, thereby adding to pressure on the markets and boosting safe haven demand for the yellow metal. Also, ongoing tension between Palestinian and Israeli soldiers in Gaza coupled with positive trend in SPDR holdings is adding to upside in prices. On the MCX, gold prices are trading higher by 0.4 percent at Rs.28096/10 gms.
Spot silver prices are also trading higher in line with strength in gold prices. also, mixed trend in base metals space could not restrict sharp gains. On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.6 percent taking cues from strong international markets and currently trading at Rs.45194/kg.
Base metals on the LME are trading on a mixed note as rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments owing to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza are weighing on prices. While on the other hand, declining inventory to their record lows in case of Zinc and Aluminium is supporting gains. In the Indian markets, base metals traded mixed in line with international trends.
LME Copper prices declined marginally on the back of signs of weak demand after China's imports of refined copper stood at 255,041 tonnes in June, down 8.16 percent from a year ago. Also, concerns related to China’s property sector along with 0.2 percent gain in inventories are exerting downside pressure on prices. On the MCX, copper prices are trading lower by 0.1 percent and touched a low of Rs.424.85/kg till 4:00pm IST.
NYMEX crude oil prices traded on a flat note today amid speculation that supplies from Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, will be unaffected by the downing of a Malaysian Air flight. Also, net-long positions on WTI shrank by 45,107 to 259,259 futures and options, the lowest level since the week ended Jan. 21 acted as a negative factor. However, robust demand as can be seen in China's crude oil imports from Iran that expanded 38 percent in June from a year ago restricted prices from falling. On the MCX, crude prices are trading on a flat note.
Commodity Unit ----Support 2---- Support 1---- CMP---- Resistance1---- Resistance 2
Gold----Aug’14----Rs/10----gm----27880----28000----28110----28230----28350
Spot----Gold----$/oz----1300----1307----1314----1321----1328
Silver----Sept’14----Rs----/kg----44700----45000----45225----45600----45900
Spot----Silver----$/oz----20.65----20.82----20.95----21.10----21.28
Crude----Oil----July’14----Rs----/bbl----6130----6150----6176----6210----6240
Nymex----Crude----Oil----Aug’14----$/bbl----100.9----101.45----101.95----102.55----103.1
Natural----Gas----July’14----Rs----/mmbtu----228----230----233.3----235----238
LME----Copper----$/tonne----6885----6926----6986----7030----7085
Copper----Aug’14----Rs----/kg----421----423----426.3----428----431
Zinc----July’14----Rs----/kg----136.5----137.2----138.25----138.9----139.8
Lead----July’14----Rs----/kg----129.2----130----131----131.6----132.5
Aluminum----July’14----Rs----/kg----118.5----119.2----119.75----120.6----121.3
Nickel----July’14----Rs----/kg----1100----1110----1123----1132----1145
Outlook
We expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as anticipation of increased geopolitical risks as the United States began demanding answers from Russia after a Malaysian plane was downed in eastern Ukraine.
Crude prices are expected to trade higher on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza along with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US.
Base metals are likely to trade sideways in the absence of major economic data in the evening’s session today. However, Chinese default concerns along with rising Copper output will exert downside pressure on Copper prices.
International Commodities
News and Analysis
- Markets cautious as Russia-West face off over Malaysian tragedy.
- LME Copper inventories gained 0.2 percent in the last session.
- China's refined copper imports fell by 8.16 percent in June.
European markets are trading on a negative note concerned by an escalation in tensions between Russia and the West and reports the Ukrainian army was moving on a major rebel stronghold. Asian markets were mixed and US stock futures are trading in the red.
Spot gold prices traded higher by 0.3 percent today as Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing intensified international pressure after pro-Russian rebels were blamed for downing a passenger jet, thereby adding to pressure on the markets and boosting safe haven demand for the yellow metal. Also, ongoing tension between Palestinian and Israeli soldiers in Gaza coupled with positive trend in SPDR holdings is adding to upside in prices. On the MCX, gold prices are trading higher by 0.4 percent at Rs.28096/10 gms.
Spot silver prices are also trading higher in line with strength in gold prices. also, mixed trend in base metals space could not restrict sharp gains. On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.6 percent taking cues from strong international markets and currently trading at Rs.45194/kg.
Base metals on the LME are trading on a mixed note as rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments owing to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza are weighing on prices. While on the other hand, declining inventory to their record lows in case of Zinc and Aluminium is supporting gains. In the Indian markets, base metals traded mixed in line with international trends.
LME Copper prices declined marginally on the back of signs of weak demand after China's imports of refined copper stood at 255,041 tonnes in June, down 8.16 percent from a year ago. Also, concerns related to China’s property sector along with 0.2 percent gain in inventories are exerting downside pressure on prices. On the MCX, copper prices are trading lower by 0.1 percent and touched a low of Rs.424.85/kg till 4:00pm IST.
NYMEX crude oil prices traded on a flat note today amid speculation that supplies from Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, will be unaffected by the downing of a Malaysian Air flight. Also, net-long positions on WTI shrank by 45,107 to 259,259 futures and options, the lowest level since the week ended Jan. 21 acted as a negative factor. However, robust demand as can be seen in China's crude oil imports from Iran that expanded 38 percent in June from a year ago restricted prices from falling. On the MCX, crude prices are trading on a flat note.
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