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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 22 August 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1-------- R2 
Gold -------MCX -----------Oct----Sideways----27500----27650----27747----27900----28000
Base Metal

Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Sept----Sideways----6290----6320----6365----6400----6440
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Oct----Down----101.30----101.70----102.47----103.00----103.70
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Sept----Sideways----6180----6210----6254----6290----6330
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug-----------Up----229----232----235.4----238----241

International Commodities

  • US Unemployment Claims declined to 298,000 w/e on 15th Aug’ 14. 
  • Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8-mark in August. 
  • UK's Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.1 percent in the last month. 
  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 28-mark in current month. 
  • SPDR gold holdings rose 0.9 tonne to 800.09 tonnes on Wednesday.

Spot gold prices declined by around 1.16 percent on Thursday to its lowest in two months extending losses to a fifth consecutive session, as fears about an early interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve sparked a technical selloff after prices broke below a key support level.
Prices declined further after minutes from the Fed's July meeting on Wednesday showed policymakers debated whether interest rates should be raised earlier given a surprisingly strong job market recovery. Yesterdays encouraging U.S. housing and jobs data also stirred economic optimism, pressuring gold.
Investors largely ignored data showing holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.9 tonne to 800.09 tonnes on Wednesday, the third straight daily increase.
On the MCX, gold prices declined by around 1.65 percent and closed at Rs.27747/10gms.

Weakness in gold prices dragged silver prices too as profit booking at higher levels and weakness in the base metals pack led to the decline.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by around 0.6 percent and closed at Rs.42080/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices are expected to trade lower as Fed’s optimism in the US economy on the basis of strength in labor markets and fears of sooner or later hikes in the interest rates dragged prices. The next focus for the market will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen's comments at the Jackson Hole central bankers' gathering on Friday.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.

Crude Oil
WTI oil prices declined on Thursday heading for a straight second weekly loss as easing geopolitical risks and higher global oil supply pressured prices. U.S. crude production has reached the highest in 28 years due to a shale oil boom. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped more oil in July despite conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.
Libya is gradually ramping up its oil production after reopening several eastern ports. It loaded a second tanker at its largest oil export terminal at Es Sider this month after being shut for a year. Exports from Iraq remained near record volumes despite the Islamic insurgency in the north. Crude is also exported from Iraqi Kurdistan via Turkey in defiance of Baghdad.
On the MCX, crude prices gained by around 0.8 percent and closed at Rs.5745/bbl.

Natural Gas
U.S. natural gas futures jumped nearly 2 percent on Thursday as traders looked beyond a bearish build in stockpiles to focus on warm weather forecasts in the near-term that could bump up the use of gas to generate power for air-conditioning.
On the MCX natural gas prices gained by around 1.33 percent and closed at Rs.235.40/Mmbtu.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a negative note as ample supplies in crude markets and declining money manager’s interest in the commodity is exerting downside pressure on prices. Also, Libya is ramping up its production ensuring that supplies are ample from the nation.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.

Base Metals
LME base metals apart from Copper traded on a negative note in yesterday’s trade as poor Chinese data deepened fears about an economic slowdown in the biggest consumer. Also, mixed trend in LME inventories acted as a negative factor.
However, favorable economic data from the US pointed towards robust growth in the second biggest consumer and cushioned sharp downside in prices. Further, upbeat market sentiments along with weakness in the DX acted as positive factors.
MCX base metals traded lower in line with trend in international markets.
LME Copper prices rose 0.1 percent on speculation that rising home sales signal improving demand in the U.S., the world’s top metals user after China. Further, fall in unemployment claims along with strong manufacturing data from the US pointed towards recovery in the major consumer.
However, sharp upside in the prices was capped owing to weak manufacturing data from China. Also, gain of 0.8 percent in LME stocks acted as a negative factor.
On the MCX, red metal prices fell by 0.1 percent and closed at Rs.424.8/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs.422.45/kg on Thursday.
Outlook Base Metals
From the intra-day perspective, we expect copper prices to trade sideways today as major commodities trading house and miner Glencore gave a bright view of the copper market, forecasting strong demand from both China and the West in the second half. Also, data from the US which is pointing towards recovery will support gains.
While on the other hand, weakness in the Chinese economy will act as a negative factor.
In the Indian markets, Copper prices will trade sideways in line with international trends.

Important Events for Today
Indicator ------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact 
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks --------US-------- 7:30pm ------------------------ - - High 
Jackson Hole Symposium --------All --------Day 2 - ------------------------- - Medium

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