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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 05 September 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1-------- R2 
Gold -------MCX -----------Oct-----Sideways----27200----27350----27461----27600----27800
Spot Gold----------------------------Sideways----1251----1258----1263----1269----1279
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----Sept-----Sideways----24450----24590----24686----24810----24990
Base Metal

Crude Oil----MCX----Sept--------------Down----5660----5700----5745----5790----5830
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----------Down----92.90----93.60----94.38----95.10----95.70
Crude Oil----NCDEX----Oct-----------Down----5700----5740----5788----5830----5870
Brent Crude----Oil----MCX----Sept----Down----6280----6320----6365----6410----6450
Brent Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Oct----Down----100.40----101.00----101.73----102.40----103.10
Brent Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Sept----Down----6150----6190----6235----6280----6320
Natural Gas----MCX----Sept-------------Down----225----228----231----234----237
International Commodities

  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 204,000 in August.
  • US crude oil inventories fell by 0.905 mn bbl for the w/e 29th Aug’14.
  • ECB cuts the Minimum Bid Rate to 0.05 percent in current month.
  • UK’s Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at 375 bn Pounds in Sep’14.
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.6-mark in last month.


Spot gold prices declined on Thursday on strength in the dollar index after the European Central Bank cut interest rates to record lows and said it would launch an asset purchase program to ward off deflation. U.S. equities driven by strong U.S. services sector activity also decreased bullion's safe-haven appeal.
ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at a news conference shortly after the ECB unexpectedly cut already ultra-low interest rates by another 10 basis points, said the central bank would start purchasing securitized loans and covered bonds next month. The ECB is under strong pressure to tackle stubbornly low inflation at a time when the conflict in Ukraine threatens to destabilize the region's fragile recovery.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday is expected to give further clues about the world's largest economy and the timing of the Federal Reserve's move to raise interest rates. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund and a good measure of investor sentiment, fell 2.69 tonnes to 790.51 tonnes on Wednesday.
On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.4 and closed at Rs.27461/10 gms.

Spot silver prices also declined by around 0.7 percent in tandem with decline in gold prices. Strength in the dollar index after ECB unexpectedly cut already ultra-low interest rates led to declining speculative interest in the metal.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 0.7 percent taking cues from weak international markets and closed at Rs.41485/kg.

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as the surprise rate cut by the ECB and additional monetary programme of 700 billion Euros will lead to weakness in the Euro. This in turn will lead to strength in the dollar and weakness in the commodities pack including precious metal. Holdings in the SPDR gold trust are also declining indicating waning interest in the yellow metal.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices declined on Thursday after a surprise rate cut from the European Central Bank boosted the dollar and hit commodities priced in the U.S. currency. The ECB cut interest rates to a record low, unexpectedly bringing borrowing costs close to zero to lift inflation from rock-bottom levels and support the stagnating euro zone economy.
On the other hand, the Seaway crude oil pipeline connecting Cushing to refiners on the Gulf Coast has been shut since Aug. 31, further backing up stocks at the key storage sight.
On the MCX, crude oil prices declined 0.4 percent taking cues from weak international markets and closed at Rs.5745/bbl.

EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 0.905 million barrels for the week ending on 29th Aug2014. Gasoline stocks declined by 2.3 million barrels, whereas distillate inventories rose by 0.605 million barrels for the same time period.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a negative note as dollar strength will act as a negative factor after the ECB rate cut. Besides, oil markets are supplied well in turn exerting downside pressure on prices. Investors will be watching nonfarm payrolls data on Friday for further clues on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.

Base Metals
The base metals complex traded on a positive note yesterday driven by the prospect of positive employment data from the US. Also, European Central Bank cut interest rates, freeing up capital for industry and investors supported gains.
However, sharp upside in the prices was prevented due to strength in the DX.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher in line with international trends.

LME copper prices gained around 0.6 percent yesterday as U.S. companies hired workers at a steady clip in August and services sector activity accelerated to a 6-1/2-year high, assurances the economy was on track for sturdy growth in the third quarter. Further, monetary easing and rate cut by the ECB acted as a positive factor.
Sharp upside in the prices was limited by mounting supply, after Indonesian producers resumed shipments that had been halted since January over a tax and regulatory disagreement. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $/tonne and closed at $6903/tonne in yesterday’s trading session.
On the MCX, Copper prices rose by 0.6 percent as a result of strength in international trends.

Outlook Base Metals
From the intra-day perspective, we estimate copper prices to trade higher on the back of estimates of favorable employment data from the US which will affirm robust recovery in the US economy and support demand. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from Euro Zone will support gains.
However, sharp upside in the prices will be prevented due to strength in the DX along with concerns of excess supply.
MCX copper prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strength in international markets.

Important Events for Today
Indicator -------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
FOMC Member Powell Speaks --------US------ 4:30am----------------------- - - - Medium
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks--------- US ------5:45am - ------------------------ - Medium
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks -US------ 6:30am - ------------------------ - Medium
German Industrial Production m/m------- Euro ----11:30am -------- 0.5%----- 0.3% Medium
Halifax HPI m/m ------------------------UK---- 5th – 8th ---------- 0.2% 1.4%----- Medium
Non-Farm Employment Change ----------US---- 6:00pm ---------- 226K--- 209K- High
Unemployment Rate---------------------- US---- 6:00pm ---------- 6.1% -----6.2% High
Average Hourly Earnings m/m------------ US----- 6:00pm ---------- 0.2%---- 0.0% Medium

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