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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 13 August 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2

Gold -------MCX -----------Oct------Sideways----28450----28600----28730----28880----29000
Base Metal

Crude Oil----MCX----Aug---------Sideways----5910----5940----5981----6030----6080
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Sideways----96.00----96.50----97.18----97.90----98.80
Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug-------Sideways----5840----5870----5910----5960----6010
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Sideways----6490----6530----6570----6620----6670
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Sideways----101.60----102.10----102.77----103.50----104.30
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----6195----6225----6266----6315----6365
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----238----242----245.8----247----252
International Commodities

  • India’s CPI rose to 7.96 percent in July; IIP growth falls to 3.4 percent.
  • US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 2 mn bbl – Reuters.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment plunged to 8.6-mark in July.
  • LME Copper inventories fell by 0.5 percent on Monday.
  • Japan’s Prelim GDP plunged by 1.7 percent in the quarter ended June

Spot gold prices gained on Tuesday on standoff between Russia and Ukraine hurting economic confidence in the euro zone economy. Investor morale in Germany, Europe's largest economy, plunged in August to its lowest level in more than a year and a half as the crisis in Ukraine took its toll, the ZEW monthly survey showed. Gold prices gained further grounds as the S&P 500 equities index slipped on heightened uncertainty over Ukraine and the Middle East.
Russia said a convoy of 280 trucks had left for Ukraine carrying humanitarian aid, amid Western warnings against using help as a pretext for an invasion. Also, investors have been cutting positions in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund.
On the MCX, gold prices gained by 0.34 percent and closed at Rs.28730/10gms.
Spot silver prices declined by around 0.8 percent on Tuesday on profit booking at higher levels and declining speculative interest in the metal. Strength in the Dollar index and weakness in copper prices dragged prices further.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 0.3 percent and closed at Rs.43712/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as the precious metals have been volatile in the recent weeks reacting on the reports of Ukraine and Russian situation on one hand while on the other hand tensions between US and Iraq continue to dominate safe haven bids.
The Zew sentiment report released yesterday showed that the investor morale in the Euro-zone is at the lowest level in more than a year and this can act as a positive factor for prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways taking cues from sideways trade in international markets.
Crude Oil

WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined in yesterday’s session by around 0.7 percent and 1.7 percent respectively as as ample supplies countered any disruption risks posed by lingering tensions in Iraq and Libya. It was the fourth day of losses for the oil benchmark and comes after the International Energy Agency pointed to high supplies and even a glut in the Atlantic Basin.
The unrest in Iraq has yet to disrupt supplies from the No. 2 OPEC producer even as the Obama administration has sent about 130 additional military personnel to Iraq as Washington seeks to help Iraq contain the threat posed by hardline militants from the Islamic State.
API inventory update
The API released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories rose by 0.229 million barrels for the week ending on 8th Aug2014. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.7 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels for the same time period.
EIA inventory forecast
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8 PM IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 2 million barrels for the week ending on 8th Aug 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 1.1 million barrels, whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase by 0.2 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Crude Oil
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade lower on account of ample global supplies. Although, the geo-political situation continues to bothers energy markets, there is no threat to actual supplies. Meanwhile, a slew of Chinese data including industrial output and retail sales for July due today should give further clues on the state of the world's No. 2 economy and second-largest oil consumer. Retail sales in the United States in the evening session would provide further cues to crude prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade lower taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) apart from Copper traded mostly higher on Tuesday owing to rise in risk appetite in the market sentiments.
However, mixed trend in LME inventories along with weak economic data from Euro Zone restricted sharp upside in prices.
Nickel prices are retarding higher despite stocks jumped 840 tonnes to a record high of 319,590 tonnes as Indonesia is clearly not backpedalling on its export ban for unprocessed nickel ore when prices are looking firm while current demand seem robust.
MCX base metals traded on a positive note in line with trend in the international markets.
LME copper prices declined by 0.6 percent on Tuesday as disappointing German data stoked concerns that growth is slowing in Europe's largest economy. The data exacerbated investor worries about whether the euro zone's slow pace of recovery will hurt demand for copper, a metal that is widely used in manufacturing. Also, falling demand in the northern hemisphere summer season and more supply coming on stream as major smelters in China and South Korea restart after maintenance is exerting downside pressure on prices.
However, rebound in market sentiments along with 0.5 percent decline in inventories cushioned sharp downside in prices.
MCX Copper prices declined by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.427.9/kg.
Outlook Copper
We expect LME copper prices to trade sideways today ahead of July industrial production and retail sales data from China, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals. Also, estimates of flat retail sales data from the US in the evening session will provide further direction to prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade sideways taking cues from international markets.

Important Events for Today
Indicator --------------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Prelim GDP q/q ---------------------------Japan -------5:20am -1.7% -1.7% 1.6% High
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes---------- Japan--------- 5:20am - - - Medium
Industrial Production y/y------------------- China ---------11:00am - 9.1% 9.2% High
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y-------------- China --------11:00am - 17.4% 17.3% Medium
New Loans --------------------------------China ------13th -14th - 780B 1080B Medium
Average Earnings Index 3m/y ---------------UK-------- 2:00pm - -0.1% 0.3% High
Claimant Count Change--------------------- UK--------- 2:00pm - -29.7K -36.3K High
Unemployment Rate------------------------ UK--------- 2:00pm - 6.4% 6.5% High
Industrial Production m/m------------------- Euro------- 2:30pm - 0.5% -1.1% Medium
BOE Gov Carney Speaks------------------- UK---------- 3:00pm - - - High
BOE Inflation Report------------------------ UK--------- 3:00pm - - - High
Core Retail Sales m/m ----------------------US---------- 6:00pm - 0.4% 0.4% High
Retail Sales m/m ----------------------------US ---------6:00pm - 0.2% 0.2% High
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks----------- US---------- 6:35pm - - - Medium
Business Inventories m/m------------------- US---------- 7:30pm - 0.4% 0.5% Medium
Crude Oil Inventories---------------------- US----------- 8:00pm - -0.8M -1.8M Medium
10-y Bond Auction------------------------ US ------------10:30pm - - 2.60/2.6 Medium
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