MCX aluminium live chart real time commodity face 11 August

MCX aluminium live chart real time commodity face 11 August mcx aluminium historical chart
Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 11 August 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2

Gold -------MCX -----------Oct------Sideways----28350----28480----28604----28720----28850
Base Metal

Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Sideways----104.00----104.80----105.24----105.90----106.60

International Commodities

  • US Prelim Nonfarm Productivity at 2.5 percent in June 2014 quarter.
  • China’s CPI remained unchanged at 2.3 percent in the month of June.
  • German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 16.2 billion Euros in June.
  • UK’s Trade Balance at deficit of 9.4 billion Pounds in prior month.

Spot gold prices started the week on a low note as bailout agreement to rescue Portugal's largest listed bank and a better tone to the global economy reflected by a higher S&P 500 equities index reduced the safe-haven buying in the yellow metal.
However, over the week prices traded positive after Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Russia has gathered military forces at the border with Ukraine either to put pressure on the neighboring country or to enter it.
Safe haven bids rose after NATO said Russia had massed about 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's border and could use the pretext of a humanitarian mission to invade, its starkest warning yet that Moscow could soon mount a ground assault against its neighbor. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow's biggest economic response to Western sanctions, ordering his government to restrict imports of food from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia.
In the Indian markets, gold prices gained by around 2 percent in the last week and closed at Rs.28604/10 gms.

Silver prices in the international markets fell by around 1.82 percent diverging from gains in gold prices. Strength in the dollar index, and weakness in copper prices dragged prices further. Escalation of geo-political tensions, and tensions between US and Iraq did not ignite any speculative interest. Profit booking at higher levels and declining speculative interest led to fall in prices. On the MCX, silver prices declined by around 1.91 percent taking cues from weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.43580/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note as geo-political conflict between Russia and Ukraine seem to have eased down a bit while tensions between US and Iraq continue to dominate the financial markets. However, declining investor interest in the ETF holdings as indicated by liquidation in SPDR gold trust will exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness.
Crude Oil

At the start of last week, oil prices climbed on both sides of the Atlantic investors shifted their attention from worries about swelling supplies to concerns about ongoing violence in Libya and other global hotspots.
Buyers were lured back by fears of growing oil supply disruptions due to escalating violence in Libya and Iraq, both major producers, and the crisis in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists are fighting Ukrainian government troops.
Worries about geo-political tensions helped short rebound in crude oil prices, the market resumed its downward trend as traders and investors grew more nervous about seasonal weak demand and poor refinery margins.
Over the course of last week, ample supplies in the US led the WTI contract to fall close to the lowest in six months while Brent prices traded at nine month lows.
Crude oil prices traded positive on Thursday after reports the United States was considering airstrikes on advancing Islamic militants in Iraq revived concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's No. 2 oil producer.
In the international markets, crude oil prices declined marginally by around 0.23 percent and closed at $97.65/bbl.
On the domestic bourses, prices traded flat and gained marginally by around 0.02 percent in the last week and closed at Rs.5975/bbl.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade sideways as escalating tensions in Iraq coupled with ease of geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine will lead to decline in prices. On the other hand, ample supplies in the US coupled with refining issue in the US affecting demand will exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways following mix set of factors in the international markets while rupee weakness might lift crude prices in the domestic markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME apart from Copper and Zinc traded on a positive note last week owing to fall in unemployment claims data from the US.
Nickel prices rose to a 1-1/2 week high lifted by the closure of a mine in Papua New Guinea and the prospect that wider Western sanctions against Russia could soon affect the major producer of the metal.
However, weak services data from the biggest consumer, China restricted sharp gains. In addition, a stronger DX along with weak economic data from the Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices.
MCX base metals traded mixed in line with trend in the international markets.
LME Copper prices declined more than 1 percent last week as China's copper arrivals fell 2.9 percent month-on-month in July, falling for a third straight month as small importers have delayed some term refined copper shipments since June owing to local banks cut lending following a probe into an alleged metal financing scam. Also, Freeport-McMoRan Inc's FCX.N Indonesia unit has completed its first copper concentrate export shipment since the country's introduction of new mining rules posed supply glut concerns.
Further, growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in July to its lowest level in nearly nine years indicating a recovery in the broader economy is still fragile and may need further government support. Also, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices.
MCX Copper prices plunged by 1.2 percent last week in line with weakness in international markets and touched a weekly low of Rs.429.1/kg before closing at Rs.429.9/kg.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade higher today as appetite for risk grew taking cues from Russia's defence ministry statement on Friday that it had finished military exercises in southern Russia, which the United States had criticized as a provocative step amid the Ukraine crisis.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade on a positive note taking cues from strength in international markets.

Important Events for Today
Indicator --------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m---------- Japan ---5:20am -0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Medium
FOMC Member Fischer Speaks------- US------- 12:45pm ------------- - - Medium

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