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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 05 August 2014
Commodity Exchange Contract----- Trend---- S2----- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------ Oct---------Sideways----27850----27980----28100----28220----28350
Spot----Gold-------------------------Down----1277----1282----1288----1294----1299
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----Sept----Sideways----25228----25345----25454----25560----25680
Silver----MCX----Sept--------------Sideways----43400----43700----44121----44500----44900
Spot----Silver-------------------------Down----19.80----19.98----20.17----20.34----20.53
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3950----3972----4007----4032----4061
Base----Metal
LME----Copper---------------------Up----6990----7050----7104----7130----7170
Copper----MCX----Aug------------Up----432----436----438.9----441----443
Zinc----MCX----Aug----------------Up----144.50----145.50----146.80----148.00----149.00
Lead----MCX----Aug--------------Up----136.80----137.50----138.75----140.00----141.00
Aluminium----MCX----Aug---------Up----121.80----122.50----123.85----125.00----126.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----1110----1120----1131.8----1140----1150
Energy
Crude----Oil----MCX----Aug-----Sideways----5920----5970----6014----6060----6100
Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----96.80----97.60----98.41----99.10----99.80
Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----5850----5900----5947----5990----6030
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Down----6470----6520----6570----6610----6650
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----104.00----104.80----105.58----106.30----106.90
Brent----Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6305----6355----6399----6445----6485
Natural----Gas----MCX----Aug----Sideways----229----232----235.70----238----241
Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 05 August 2014
Commodity Exchange Contract----- Trend---- S2----- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullion
Gold -------MCX ------ Oct---------Sideways----27850----27980----28100----28220----28350
Spot----Gold-------------------------Down----1277----1282----1288----1294----1299
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----Sept----Sideways----25228----25345----25454----25560----25680
Silver----MCX----Sept--------------Sideways----43400----43700----44121----44500----44900
Spot----Silver-------------------------Down----19.80----19.98----20.17----20.34----20.53
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3950----3972----4007----4032----4061
Base----Metal
LME----Copper---------------------Up----6990----7050----7104----7130----7170
Copper----MCX----Aug------------Up----432----436----438.9----441----443
Zinc----MCX----Aug----------------Up----144.50----145.50----146.80----148.00----149.00
Lead----MCX----Aug--------------Up----136.80----137.50----138.75----140.00----141.00
Aluminium----MCX----Aug---------Up----121.80----122.50----123.85----125.00----126.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----1110----1120----1131.8----1140----1150
Energy
Crude----Oil----MCX----Aug-----Sideways----5920----5970----6014----6060----6100
Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----96.80----97.60----98.41----99.10----99.80
Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----5850----5900----5947----5990----6030
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Down----6470----6520----6570----6610----6650
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----104.00----104.80----105.58----106.30----106.90
Brent----Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6305----6355----6399----6445----6485
Natural----Gas----MCX----Aug----Sideways----229----232----235.70----238----241
International Commodities
Overview
- Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 29,800 in last month.
- US API crude oil inventories expected to fall by 1 mn bbl – Reuters.
- UK’s Construction PMI plunged by 0.2 points to 62.4-mark in July.
- Libyan oil output dropped to around 450,000 bpd last week.
- China’s HSBC Services PMI declined by 3.1 points to 50-mark in July.
Bullion
Gold
Spot gold prices declined on Monday as a bailout agreement to rescue Portugal's largest listed bank and a better tone to the global economy reflected by a higher S&P 500 equities index reduced the safe-haven buying in the yellow metal.
Gold prices has now dropped in five out of the last six sessions after a string of encouraging U.S. economic data including strong second-quarter economic growth last week prompted selling. In the physical markets, buying remained subdued in the seasonally quiet summer period, even as many consumers expected prices to decline further.
On the MCX, gold prices declined by around 0.5 percent taking cues from weak international markets and closed at Rs.27915/10gms.
Silver
Weakness in gold prices dragged spot silver prices too as it declined by around 0.6 percent to close at $20.2/oz. However, sharp fall was cushioned on strength in the overall base metals complex.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 0.7 percent and closed at Rs.44121/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold prices to trade lower as the news of rescue of the Portugal’s biggest bank has reduced the safe haven bid for the yellow metal. Besides, the host of data sets released from the US also indicates optimism and growth in the US economy in turn exerting downside pressure.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Oil prices climbed on both sides of the Atlantic with WTI gaining 0.4 percent and Brent rising by 0.2 percent as investors shifted their attention from worries about swelling supplies to concerns about ongoing violence in Libya and other global hotspots.
Buyers were lured back by fears of growing oil supply disruptions due to escalating violence in Libya and Iraq, both major producers, and the crisis in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists are fighting Ukrainian government troops.
In Libya, oil output dropped to around 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 500,000 bpd last week, but a spokesman for the state-run National Oil Corp said oilfields were still secure despite clashes between rival factions in the capital, Tripoli.
On the MCX, crude prices gained by 0.7 percent and closed at Rs.6014/bbl.
API inventory Forecast
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 1 million barrels for the week ending on 1st Aug 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to remain unchanged, whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase 0.8 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade sideways to positive as investors shift their attention towards escalating violence in Libya creating a supply side constraint while the crisis in Ukraine still bothers energy markets.
Meanwhile, the host of PMI data sets to be released throughout the day from the US, Euro-zone will drive the trajectory of crude oil prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways taking cues from international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded largely traded on a positive note as investors expected the U.S. would not cut its interest rates soon as job growth slowed a bit in July and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, pointing to slack in the labor market, which could give the FOMC room to keep interest rates low for a while.
Further, German new-car sales rose strongly in July as buyers flocked to up market brands, the latest indication that the years-long malaise of the European car industry may have come to an end acted as a positive factor.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded higher taking cues from strength in international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices gained 0.9 percent yesterday after weak U.S. employment data soothed concerns that the Federal Reserve would soon begin to draw back liquidity that has cushioned demand for metals.
However, concerns of expanding global supplies after Freeport resumes copper concentrate exports on Wednesday kept the investors cautious and capped sharp gains. The red metal touched a intra-day high of $7145/tonne before closing at $7141/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices gained 0.8 percent and closed at Rs.438.9/kg on Monday.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a positive note today on the back of estimates of positive retail sales data from the Euro Zone and factory orders from the US in the evening session.
However, concerns of supply glut will continue to exert downside pressure on prices.
MCX Copper prices will trade on a positive note today taking cues from strength in international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator -------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
HSBC Services PMI -------------China 7:15am 50.0 - 53.1 Medium
Halifax HPI m/m ------------------UK 5th – 8th - 0.5% -0.6% Medium
Spanish Services PMI -------------Euro 12:45pm - 55.1 54.8 Medium
Italian Services PMI --------------Euro 1:15pm - 53.2 53.9 Medium
Services PMI ---------------------UK 2:00pm - 58.1 57.7 High
Retail Sales m/m------------------ Euro 2:30pm - 0.4% 0.0% Medium
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI----- US 7:30pm - 56.6 56.0 High
Factory Orders m/m --------------US 7:30pm - 0.6% -0.5% Medium
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