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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 06 August 2014   
Commodity Exchange Contract----- Trend---- S2----- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2 
Gold -------MCX ------ Oct---------Sideways----27850----28000----28114----28250----28360

Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug--------Down----6480----6520----6570----6610----6660
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----103.50----104.10----104.91----105.50----106.30
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6250----6290----6342----6380----6430
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug-----------Sideways----234----237----239.3----241----243
International Commodities

  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.7-mark in July.
  • US crude oil inventories expected to decline by 1.7 mn bbl – Reuters.
  • Euro Zone Retail Sales grew by 0.4 percent in the month of June.
  • Perth Mint's coin sales of gold and silver fell to a 3-month low in July.
  • UK’s Services PMI increased by 1.4 points to 59.1-mark in July.

Drop in US equities and worries about escalation of military action in Ukraine helped gold prices gain in the early part of the session, while it closed at $1287.7, down by 0.02 percent. Bullion prices turned higher after Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Russia has gathered military forces at the border with Ukraine either to put pressure on the neighboring country or to enter it.
The metal initially fell after a report showed new orders for U.S. factory goods rose more than expected in June as demand increased across the board. Recent U.S. data pointing to strengthening economic activity has weighed on gold's appeal as a hedge for investors.
In the retail gold market, private-investor sentiment toward the metal in July recovered from the previous month's four-year low on rising geopolitical tensions, said a survey by online precious metals market BullionVault. In a measure of investor sentiment, SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings fell 1.79 tonnes to 800.05 tonnes on Monday.
On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.25 percent and closed at Rs.27844/10gms.
Spot silver prices declined by more than 2 percent on Tuesday on declining speculative interest in the metal. Besides, Perth Mint's coin sales of gold and silver dropped to a three-month low in July, according to the most recent data on its website exerted downside pressure on prices. Strength in the Dollar Index and weakness in the base metals pack also acted as a negative factor.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by around 1.7 percent and closed at Rs.43381/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold prices to trade sideways as escalation of geo-political tensions in Ukraine will boost the safe haven demand while encouraging economic data from the US in the recent weeks suggests that growth in the world’s largest economy is gaining traction exerting downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade sideways taking cues from sideways trade in the international markets.

Crude Oil

Oil prices declined on Tuesday on ample supplies in Europe and North America outweighing fears of violence in the Middle East and North Africa could disrupt production. Worries about geo-political tensions helped short rebound in crude oil prices, the market resumed its downward trend as traders and investors grew more nervous about seasonal weak demand and poor refinery margins.
Libyan oil output has dropped to around 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 500,000 bpd last week. Yet the state-run National Oil Corp says oilfields are secure despite prolonged clashes between rival militias in the capital, Tripoli.
API inventory update
The API released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 5.5 million barrels for the week ending on 1st August 2014. Gasoline stocks declined by 3.6 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 0.544 million barrels for the same time period.
EIA inventory forecast
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8 PM IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 1.7 million barrels for the week ending on 1st Aug 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to increase by 0.3 million barrels, whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase 0.9 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a negative note on ample supplies in the Europe and North America. Although, escalation of geo-political tensions has been bothering crude markets there has been no real threat of supplies. On the other hand, there is no disturbance to the Libyan supplies despite the violence in the country.
Meanwhile, the crude inventory report due tonight will decide further trajectory of crude prices in today’s session.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded largely traded on a negative note as Services PMI data from China fell to the lowest level in nine years. Also, mixed market sentiments along with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices.
Further, favorable economic data from the US and Euro Zone could not restrict sharp downside on prices.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded lower taking cues from weakness in international markets.
LME Copper prices slipped by 1.3 percent yesterday as China's services sector slowed to its lowest level in nearly nine years, raising concerns about the demand outlook from the world's top metals consumer. Further, rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments in the latter part of trade after Poland’s foreign minister warned that a renewed buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border may signal an invasion as President Vladimir Putin ordered a response to U.S. and European sanctions exerted downside pressure on prices.
In addition, decline in inventories by 0.4 percent coupled with positive economic data from the US and Euro Zone could not provide respite to prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $7042.75/tonne before closing at $7050.8/tonne in the last session.
MCX Copper prices plunged by 1.3 percent in line with trend in international markets and closed at Rs.433.1/kg on Tuesday.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade on a negative note today on the back of demand concerns from the biggest consumer, China and escalating violence in Ukraine.
However, estimates of favorable German factory orders and UK manufacturing production data will restrict sharp downside.
MCX Copper prices will trade on a negative note today taking cues from weakness in international markets.

Important Events for Today
Indicator---------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
German Factory Orders m/m--------- Euro---- 11:30am---------- - 0.5% -1.7% Medium
Halifax HPI m/m---------------------- UK----- 6th – 8th---------- - 0.5% -0.6% Medium
Manufacturing Production m/m-------- UK----- 2:00pm ------------- 0.7% -1.3% High
Italian Prelim GDP q/q---------------- Euro----- 2:30pm------------- - 0.1% -0.1% Medium
Trade Balance------------------------ US------- 6:00pm ----------- -44.2B -44.4B High
NIESR GDP Estimate---------------- UK------ 7:30pm ------------------ - 0.9% Medium
Crude Oil Inventories----------------- US------- 8:00pm ---------------- - -3.7M Medium

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