Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 08 August 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX -----------Oct------Up----28500----28600----28770----28900----29100Spot----Gold--------------------------Up----1303----1307----1315----1321----1330
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----Sept----Up----25440----25520----25681----25790----25970
Silver----MCX----Sept---------------Up----43300----43500----43814----44100----44500
Spot----Silver-------------------------Up----19.70----19.90----19.95----20.00----20.30
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Up----3890----3910----3953----3970----4000
Base Metal
LME----Copper------------------------Sideways----6900----6950----6995----7010----7065
Copper----MCX----Aug---------------Down----426----429----431.7----433----436
Zinc----MCX----Aug------------------Sideways----140.50----141.50----142.75----143.80----145.00
Lead----MCX----Aug-----------------Up----137.00----138.00----139.25----140.20----141.50
Aluminium----MCX----Aug------------Up----122.00----123.00----124.20----125.20----126.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug---------------Sideways----1140----1150----1159.2----1170----1180
Energy
Crude----Oil----MCX----Aug----------Sideways----5890----5940----5987----6030----6090
Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Sept-------Sideways----96.10----96.95----97.72----98.40----99.40
Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Aug--------Sideways----5820----5870----5924----5960----6020
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug--------Sideways----6470----6520----6570----6610----6670
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Sideways----104.60----105.45----106.21----106.90----107.80
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug-----Sideways----6260----6310----6357----6400----6460
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug----Sideways----233----236----238.8----241----244
International Commodities
Overview
Gold
Spot gold prices rose on Thursday on increasing safe haven bids and gained more than half a percent amid rising tensions in Iraq and Ukraine. Prices turned positive on reports that U.S. President Barack Obama was considering air strikes and emergency relief airdrops to help 40,000 religious minorities in Iraq, who are trapped on a mountaintop after threats by Islamic militants.
On the contrary, holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 2.4 tonnes to 797.65 tonnes on Wednesday.
On the MCX, gold prices gained by 0.48 percent and closed at Rs.28770/10gms.
Silver
Spot silver prices declined by half a percent in contrary to the strong trend in gold prices although US president said that they are considering air strikes on Iraq. Declining speculative interest in the metal, strength in the dollar index coupled with profit booking at higher levels led to the weakness. However, strong performance in the base metals complex cushioned sharp downside in prices.
On the MCX, silver prices declined marginally by 0.2 percent in line with weakness in international markets.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of geo-political conflict between Russia and Ukraine on one hand and tensions in Iraq on the other hand. However, declining investor interest in the ETF holdings as indicated by liquidation in SPDR gold trust will exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness.
Energy
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded positive on Thursday after reports the United States was considering airstrikes on advancing Islamic militants in Iraq revived concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's No. 2 oil producer. However, White House spokesman Josh Earnest would not confirm that airstrikes were being considered. "There are no American military solutions to the problems in Iraq," he said.
On the contrary, ample global supplies were still pressuring oil prices, noting that oil supplies from Iraq had not yet been interrupted. Meanwhile, refining issues in the United States, including the four-week shut-down of a refinery in Coffeyville, Kansas, are weighing on U.S. crude, ahead of the refinery turnaround season in autumn, characterized by typically weaker demand.
On the MCX, crude prices gained by 0.5 percent taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness closing the session at Rs.5987/bbl.
Natural gas inventory update
AS per the report released by the EIA, utilities added 82 Bcf of natural gas. Natural gas prices on the NYMEX reacted to the reports and declined by around 2 percent closing at $3.88/MMbtu. On the MCX, Natural gas prices declined by around 1.44 percent taking cues from weak international markets and closed at Rs.238.80/Mmbtu.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade sideways as escalating tensions in Iraq coupled with heightening geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine will lift crude prices. On the other hand, ample supplies in the US coupled with refining issue in the US affecting demand will exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways following mix set of factors in the international markets while rupee weakness might lift crude prices in the domestic markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME apart from Zinc traded on a positive note yesterday owing to fall in unemployment claims data from the US.
Nickel prices were supported by production halts this week at the Ramu mine in Papua New Guinea, due to local unrest which highlighted risks to the global supply of the metal. Also, prospects that wider Western sanctions against Russia could soon affect the major producer of the metal acted as a positive factor.
However, a stronger DX along with weak economic data from the Euro Zone restricted sharp gains. In addition, rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments exerted downside pressure on prices.
MCX base metals traded higher in line with trend in the international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices gained 0.3 percent yesterday owing to decline in unemployment claims data from the US that pushed the average over the past month to an eight-year low, a sign the labor market continues to gain momentum in the second biggest consumer.
However, the European Central Bank signaled that it stands ready to print money and buy bonds if the euro zone slides towards deflation and warned the conflict in Ukraine poses a serious risk to the bloc's economy. Also, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7018/tonne before closing at $6985/tonne on Thursday.
MCX Copper prices rose by 0.4 percent in line with strength in international markets and closed at Rs.431.7/kg.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade lower today as investors will remain cautious ahead of Chinese inflation data due tomorrow and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.
However, sharp fall will be cushioned as China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated in July thereby suggesting global demand will help the government achieve its 2014 economic-expansion goal of about 7.5 percent.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Current Account------------------- Japan--------- 5:20am 0.13T 0.11T 0.38T Medium
Monetary Policy Statement---------- Japan--------- Tentative - - - High
Trade Balance---------------------- China----------- Tentative 47.3B 26.0B 31.6B High
German Trade Balance-------------- Euro -----------11:30am - 19.8B 18.8B Medium
BOJ Press Conference------------- Japan----------- Tentative - - - High
French Industrial Production m/m ----Euro------------- 12:15pm - 1.1% -1.7% Medium
Trade Balance----------------------- UK -------------2:00pm - -8.9B -9.2B Medium
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q---- US --------------6:00pm - 1.4% -3.2% Medium
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q ---------US------------- 6:00pm - 1.3% 5.7% Medium
Overview
- US Unemployment Claims fell to 289,000 for the w/e on 1st Aug’14.
- Utilities added 82 bcf of Natural gas into storage last week.
- UK’s Official Bank Rate at 0.5 percent in the month of August.
- China’s trade surplus surged to a record $47.3 billion in July.
- German Industrial Production grew by 0.3 percent in month of June.
Gold
Spot gold prices rose on Thursday on increasing safe haven bids and gained more than half a percent amid rising tensions in Iraq and Ukraine. Prices turned positive on reports that U.S. President Barack Obama was considering air strikes and emergency relief airdrops to help 40,000 religious minorities in Iraq, who are trapped on a mountaintop after threats by Islamic militants.
On the contrary, holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 2.4 tonnes to 797.65 tonnes on Wednesday.
On the MCX, gold prices gained by 0.48 percent and closed at Rs.28770/10gms.
Silver
Spot silver prices declined by half a percent in contrary to the strong trend in gold prices although US president said that they are considering air strikes on Iraq. Declining speculative interest in the metal, strength in the dollar index coupled with profit booking at higher levels led to the weakness. However, strong performance in the base metals complex cushioned sharp downside in prices.
On the MCX, silver prices declined marginally by 0.2 percent in line with weakness in international markets.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of geo-political conflict between Russia and Ukraine on one hand and tensions in Iraq on the other hand. However, declining investor interest in the ETF holdings as indicated by liquidation in SPDR gold trust will exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness.
Energy
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded positive on Thursday after reports the United States was considering airstrikes on advancing Islamic militants in Iraq revived concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's No. 2 oil producer. However, White House spokesman Josh Earnest would not confirm that airstrikes were being considered. "There are no American military solutions to the problems in Iraq," he said.
On the contrary, ample global supplies were still pressuring oil prices, noting that oil supplies from Iraq had not yet been interrupted. Meanwhile, refining issues in the United States, including the four-week shut-down of a refinery in Coffeyville, Kansas, are weighing on U.S. crude, ahead of the refinery turnaround season in autumn, characterized by typically weaker demand.
On the MCX, crude prices gained by 0.5 percent taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness closing the session at Rs.5987/bbl.
Natural gas inventory update
AS per the report released by the EIA, utilities added 82 Bcf of natural gas. Natural gas prices on the NYMEX reacted to the reports and declined by around 2 percent closing at $3.88/MMbtu. On the MCX, Natural gas prices declined by around 1.44 percent taking cues from weak international markets and closed at Rs.238.80/Mmbtu.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade sideways as escalating tensions in Iraq coupled with heightening geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine will lift crude prices. On the other hand, ample supplies in the US coupled with refining issue in the US affecting demand will exert downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways following mix set of factors in the international markets while rupee weakness might lift crude prices in the domestic markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME apart from Zinc traded on a positive note yesterday owing to fall in unemployment claims data from the US.
Nickel prices were supported by production halts this week at the Ramu mine in Papua New Guinea, due to local unrest which highlighted risks to the global supply of the metal. Also, prospects that wider Western sanctions against Russia could soon affect the major producer of the metal acted as a positive factor.
However, a stronger DX along with weak economic data from the Euro Zone restricted sharp gains. In addition, rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments exerted downside pressure on prices.
MCX base metals traded higher in line with trend in the international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices gained 0.3 percent yesterday owing to decline in unemployment claims data from the US that pushed the average over the past month to an eight-year low, a sign the labor market continues to gain momentum in the second biggest consumer.
However, the European Central Bank signaled that it stands ready to print money and buy bonds if the euro zone slides towards deflation and warned the conflict in Ukraine poses a serious risk to the bloc's economy. Also, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7018/tonne before closing at $6985/tonne on Thursday.
MCX Copper prices rose by 0.4 percent in line with strength in international markets and closed at Rs.431.7/kg.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade lower today as investors will remain cautious ahead of Chinese inflation data due tomorrow and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.
However, sharp fall will be cushioned as China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated in July thereby suggesting global demand will help the government achieve its 2014 economic-expansion goal of about 7.5 percent.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Current Account------------------- Japan--------- 5:20am 0.13T 0.11T 0.38T Medium
Monetary Policy Statement---------- Japan--------- Tentative - - - High
Trade Balance---------------------- China----------- Tentative 47.3B 26.0B 31.6B High
German Trade Balance-------------- Euro -----------11:30am - 19.8B 18.8B Medium
BOJ Press Conference------------- Japan----------- Tentative - - - High
French Industrial Production m/m ----Euro------------- 12:15pm - 1.1% -1.7% Medium
Trade Balance----------------------- UK -------------2:00pm - -8.9B -9.2B Medium
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q---- US --------------6:00pm - 1.4% -3.2% Medium
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q ---------US------------- 6:00pm - 1.3% 5.7% Medium
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