tips crude oil webs Commodity face mcx free tips 07 August
Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 07 August 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Spot----Gold------------------------Sideways----1294----1301----1307----1314----1319
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----Sept----Sideways----25420----25560----25681----25810----25920
Silver----MCX----Sept-------------Sideways----43300----43600----43920----44300----44700
Spot----Silver-----------------------Sideways----19.70----19.90----20.07----20.20----20.40
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3890----3910----3953----3970----4000
Base Metal
LME----Copper--------------------Sideways----6880----6940----6995----7020----7060
Copper----MCX----Aug-----------Down----423----427----429.90----432----436
Zinc----MCX----Aug----------------Up----142.50----143.50----144.60----145.50----146.50
Lead----MCX----Aug---------------Sideways----135.50----136.50----137.50----138.50----139.50
Aluminium----MCX----Aug----------Up----122.00----123.00----123.90----125.00----126.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug-------------Sideways----1130----1140----1149.40----1160----1170
Energy
Crude----Oil----MCX----Aug-------Down----5880----5920----5957----5990----6040
Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----95.80----96.50----97.10----97.60----98.45
Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----5840----5880----5924----5950----6000
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Down----6490----6530----6570----6600----6650
Brent Crude Oil--NYMEX----Sept----Down----103.50----104.10----104.77----105.30----106.00
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6280----6320----6357----6390----6440
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug-------Sideways----237----240----242.3----245----248
International Commodities
Overview
Gold
Spot gold prices rose by around 1.4 percent on Wednesday triggered by safe haven buying on worries that escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine and weak tone in global equities acted as a positive factor.
Safe haven bids rose after NATO said Russia had massed about 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's border and could use the pretext of a humanitarian mission to invade, its starkest warning yet that Moscow could soon mount a ground assault against its neighbor. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow's biggest economic response to Western sanctions, ordering his government to restrict imports of food from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia.
Prices were also supported as Italy, the euro zone's No. 3 economy, slid into recession in the second quarter, for the third time since 2008.
On the MCX, gold prices gained by more than 2.8 percent taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness.
Silver
Spot silver prices rose by around 1.6 percent on Wednesday in tandem with gain in gold prices. Increased speculative interest due to escalation of geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine acted as a positive factor for prices. In addition, weakness in the dollar index coupled with strength in Nickel prices boosted silver prices too.
On the MCX, silver prices rose by around 1.2 percent taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade higher as the escalation of geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine is boosting the demand for safe haven raising the speculative interest. Although, recent economic indicators from the US is showing signs of growth the near term movements in gold prices will be driven by the developments on the geo-political issues.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims to be released from the US in the evening session will decide the trajectory of gold prices further.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Ample supplies in the US led the WTI contract to fall close to the lowest in six months while Brent prices traded at nine month lows. Prices saw some early support from a U.S. government report showing that U.S. crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels last week and gasoline stocks dipped sharply.
But the rebound halted in the later part of the trade and both benchmarks pared gains shortly after reports emerged that near 100 rail-cars arrived at the Stroud, Oklahoma unloading facility on Wednesday, the first train to arrive this month at the terminal connected to Cushing.
Despite prolonged violence in several key oil-producing regions, traders have become increasingly nervous about weak seasonal demand and poor refinery margins in a global market that is well supplied with high quality, light crude oil.
On the MCX, crude price gained marginally by 0.2 percent as rupee weakness cushioned prices and closed at Rs.5957/bbl
EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 1.8 million barrels for the week ending on 1st Aug2014. Gasoline stocks declined by 4.4 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower following its weakness in the recent weeks as ample supplies are flooded in crude markets with poor refinery margins in global market. Although, crude oil markets are bothered with prolonged violence in key producing regions coupled with heightened geo-political tensions, crude markets are behaving as per the fundamentals of demand and supply.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways as rupee weakness will cushion sharp downside in prices.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a negative note yesterday owing to rise in risk aversion in the markets spurred by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Also, a stronger DX and weak economic data from the Euro Zone and UK acted as negative factors.
MCX base metals traded lower in line with weak trend in the international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices fell to the lowest level since June amid signs of faltering Europe’s economic recovery as Italy unexpectedly returned to recession and factory orders dropped the most since 2011 in Germany, the world’s third-largest copper user. Also, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices.
Further, decline of 0.8 percent in inventories could not restrict downside in prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $6951.75/tonne before closing at $6966.8/tonne on Wednesday.
MCX Copper prices declined by 0.7 percent in line with weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.429.9/kg
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade lower today as rising risk aversion owing to tensions between Russia and Ukraine along with concerns of weak Chinese demand will be a drag for prices. also, concerns of additional supply after Freeport copper exports resume will continue to exert downside pressure on prices.
However, sharp fall will be cushioned owing to favorable German Industrial Production data.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator---------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
German Industrial Production m/m----- Euro 11:30am - 1.4% -1.8% Medium
Asset Purchase Facility ----------------UK 4:30pm - 375B 375B High
Official Bank Rate --------------------UK 4:30pm - 0.5% 0.5% High
MPC Rate Statement------------------- UK Tentative - - - High Minimum
Bid Rate --------------------------------Euro 5:15pm - 0.15% 0.15% High
ECB Press Conference------------------ Euro 6:00pm - - - High
Unemployment Claims-------------------US 6:00pm - 305K 302K High
Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 07 August 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX -----------Oct----Sideways----28350----28500----28633----28780----28900Spot----Gold------------------------Sideways----1294----1301----1307----1314----1319
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----Sept----Sideways----25420----25560----25681----25810----25920
Silver----MCX----Sept-------------Sideways----43300----43600----43920----44300----44700
Spot----Silver-----------------------Sideways----19.70----19.90----20.07----20.20----20.40
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3890----3910----3953----3970----4000
Base Metal
LME----Copper--------------------Sideways----6880----6940----6995----7020----7060
Copper----MCX----Aug-----------Down----423----427----429.90----432----436
Zinc----MCX----Aug----------------Up----142.50----143.50----144.60----145.50----146.50
Lead----MCX----Aug---------------Sideways----135.50----136.50----137.50----138.50----139.50
Aluminium----MCX----Aug----------Up----122.00----123.00----123.90----125.00----126.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug-------------Sideways----1130----1140----1149.40----1160----1170
Energy
Crude----Oil----MCX----Aug-------Down----5880----5920----5957----5990----6040
Crude----Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----95.80----96.50----97.10----97.60----98.45
Crude----Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----5840----5880----5924----5950----6000
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug----Down----6490----6530----6570----6600----6650
Brent Crude Oil--NYMEX----Sept----Down----103.50----104.10----104.77----105.30----106.00
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug----Down----6280----6320----6357----6390----6440
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug-------Sideways----237----240----242.3----245----248
International Commodities
Overview
- US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $41.5 billion in month of June.
- German Factory Orders plunged by 3.2 percent a month earlier.
- UK’s Manufacturing Production gained 0.3 percent in June.
Gold
Spot gold prices rose by around 1.4 percent on Wednesday triggered by safe haven buying on worries that escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine and weak tone in global equities acted as a positive factor.
Safe haven bids rose after NATO said Russia had massed about 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's border and could use the pretext of a humanitarian mission to invade, its starkest warning yet that Moscow could soon mount a ground assault against its neighbor. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow's biggest economic response to Western sanctions, ordering his government to restrict imports of food from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia.
Prices were also supported as Italy, the euro zone's No. 3 economy, slid into recession in the second quarter, for the third time since 2008.
On the MCX, gold prices gained by more than 2.8 percent taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness.
Silver
Spot silver prices rose by around 1.6 percent on Wednesday in tandem with gain in gold prices. Increased speculative interest due to escalation of geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine acted as a positive factor for prices. In addition, weakness in the dollar index coupled with strength in Nickel prices boosted silver prices too.
On the MCX, silver prices rose by around 1.2 percent taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade higher as the escalation of geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine is boosting the demand for safe haven raising the speculative interest. Although, recent economic indicators from the US is showing signs of growth the near term movements in gold prices will be driven by the developments on the geo-political issues.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims to be released from the US in the evening session will decide the trajectory of gold prices further.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
Energy
Crude Oil
Ample supplies in the US led the WTI contract to fall close to the lowest in six months while Brent prices traded at nine month lows. Prices saw some early support from a U.S. government report showing that U.S. crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels last week and gasoline stocks dipped sharply.
But the rebound halted in the later part of the trade and both benchmarks pared gains shortly after reports emerged that near 100 rail-cars arrived at the Stroud, Oklahoma unloading facility on Wednesday, the first train to arrive this month at the terminal connected to Cushing.
Despite prolonged violence in several key oil-producing regions, traders have become increasingly nervous about weak seasonal demand and poor refinery margins in a global market that is well supplied with high quality, light crude oil.
On the MCX, crude price gained marginally by 0.2 percent as rupee weakness cushioned prices and closed at Rs.5957/bbl
EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories declined by 1.8 million barrels for the week ending on 1st Aug2014. Gasoline stocks declined by 4.4 million barrels whereas distillate inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower following its weakness in the recent weeks as ample supplies are flooded in crude markets with poor refinery margins in global market. Although, crude oil markets are bothered with prolonged violence in key producing regions coupled with heightened geo-political tensions, crude markets are behaving as per the fundamentals of demand and supply.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways as rupee weakness will cushion sharp downside in prices.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a negative note yesterday owing to rise in risk aversion in the markets spurred by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Also, a stronger DX and weak economic data from the Euro Zone and UK acted as negative factors.
MCX base metals traded lower in line with weak trend in the international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices fell to the lowest level since June amid signs of faltering Europe’s economic recovery as Italy unexpectedly returned to recession and factory orders dropped the most since 2011 in Germany, the world’s third-largest copper user. Also, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices.
Further, decline of 0.8 percent in inventories could not restrict downside in prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $6951.75/tonne before closing at $6966.8/tonne on Wednesday.
MCX Copper prices declined by 0.7 percent in line with weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.429.9/kg
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade lower today as rising risk aversion owing to tensions between Russia and Ukraine along with concerns of weak Chinese demand will be a drag for prices. also, concerns of additional supply after Freeport copper exports resume will continue to exert downside pressure on prices.
However, sharp fall will be cushioned owing to favorable German Industrial Production data.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.
Important Events for Today
Indicator---------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
German Industrial Production m/m----- Euro 11:30am - 1.4% -1.8% Medium
Asset Purchase Facility ----------------UK 4:30pm - 375B 375B High
Official Bank Rate --------------------UK 4:30pm - 0.5% 0.5% High
MPC Rate Statement------------------- UK Tentative - - - High Minimum
Bid Rate --------------------------------Euro 5:15pm - 0.15% 0.15% High
ECB Press Conference------------------ Euro 6:00pm - - - High
Unemployment Claims-------------------US 6:00pm - 305K 302K High
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