commodity face research free mcx intraday tips commodity prices evening 06 August

commodity face research free mcx intraday tips commodity prices
Technical Outlook for evening session – 6th Aug’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)

Commodity----Unit----Support 2----Support 1----CMP----Resistance 1----Resistance 2
Gold----Oct’14----Rs/10 gm----28050----28160----28311----28400----28530
NCDEX----Gold hedge July’14----25400----25470----25569----25620----25700

Crude----Oil----Aug’14 Rs /bbl----5930----5960----6017----6070----6100
Nymex----Crude----Oil Sept’14 $/bbl----96.35----96.9----97.6----98.3----98.85
Natural----Gas----July’14----Rs /mmbtu----236----239----241.4----245----248

International Commodities


Gold’s safe haven demand is back in action as Russian forces penetrate in the border area of Ukraine leading to heightening of geo-political tensions between the two countries. On the other hand, optimism in the US economy will exert downside pressure.
Crude oil prices is expected to trade higher as geo-political tensions has flared up which might disturb supplies from Russia. On the other hand, the EIA inventory report due tonight will be closely watched to provide further cues to crude prices.
Base metals are likely to trade lower on account of Chinese demand concerns after the services data turned up too weak fuelling concerns regarding the strength of the economy.

News and Analysis

  • German Factory Orders plunged by 3.2 percent in June.
  • UK’s Manufacturing Production gained 0.3 percent in June’14.
  • LME Copper inventories slipped by 0.8 percent yesterday.
European markets are trading on a negative note today as a buildup of Russian armed forces along the border with Ukraine escalated tension, and a report showed German factory orders unexpectedly dropped. Asian markets ended lower and US stock futures are trading in the red.
Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher at $1288.60, on safe-haven demand and could benefit from a bout of risk aversion as fears of increasing military action along the Ukraine border has put global equities under pressure. Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Russia has gathered military forces at the border with Ukraine to either put pressure on the neighboring country or to enter it. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East have largely been responsible for gold's 7 percent gain this year. Gold, often seen as alternative investment to riskier assets such as equities, could gain if stocks fall further. On the MCX, gold prices are trading higher at Rs.28295/10 gms.
Spot silver prices are also trading higher by 0.6 percent at $19.78/oz in tandem with strength in gold prices. However, strength in the dollar index and weak performance in the base metals complex is exerting downside pressure on prices. On the MCX, silver prices are higher by 0.60 percent and trading at Rs.43640/kg.
Base metals are trading lower today taking cues from weak economic data from the Euro Zone and UK. Also, Rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments along with strength in the DX acted as negative factors. In the Indian markets, base metals are trading lower taking cues from weak international markets
LME Copper prices slipped to its lowest level since July 21 at $6,985/tonne owing to strong dollar and data pointing to slowing growth in top metals consumer China weighed particularly on copper, as the metal is used in construction and electrical goods. Also, weak German Factory Orders and UK’s manufacturing production data exerted downside pressure on prices. MCX copper prices are trading lower by 0.3 percent at Rs.431.8/kg.
WTI crude oil prices are trading higher by 0.1 percent at $97.52/bbl as tensions in the Middle East and North Africa continue to bother crude markets. Investors will study the EIA figures closely for news of supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for U.S. futures. Stocks there have fallen close to minimum operating capacity. The drop in U.S. inventories came after upbeat U.S. economic data this week that included a spike in service-sector activity to a nine-year peak and a surprisingly large increase in factory orders, possible signs of better oil demand to come. On the MCX, crude prices are trading higher by around 1.2 percent at Rs.6018/bbl.

Important Events for Today
Indicator----------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
German Factory Orders m/m ---------Euro 11:30am -3.2% 0.5% -1.7% Medium
Halifax HPI m/m--------------------- UK 6th – 8th 1.4% 0.5% -0.6% Medium
Manufacturing Production m/m------- UK 2:00pm 0.3% 0.7% -1.3% High
Italian Prelim GDP q/q--------------- Euro 2:30pm - 0.1% -0.1% Medium
Trade Balance------------------------ US 6:00pm - -44.2B -44.4B High
NIESR GDP Estimate--------------- UK 7:30pm - - 0.9% Medium
Crude Oil Inventories ----------------US 8:00pm - - -3.7M Medium

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