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25 March 2014 Technical Levels for Metals and Energy

Technical Levels for Metals and Energy
Commodity Exchange Contract Trend -----S2 -------S1 -------LTP -------R1 ---------R2

Gold --------MCX ------Apr -----Down -----28900 ---29000 ---29159 ----29300 ----29500
Spot Gold --------------------------Down -----1300 ----1305 -----1312 -----1318 ------1327
Gold Hedge NCDEX-- Mar -----Down -----25460 ---25550 ---25690---- 25810 ----25990
Silver -------MCX------ May ----Down----- 43300 ---43600 ---43949 ----44300 ----44700
Spot Silver -------------------------Down -----19.60 ----19.80--- 19.99----- 20.10 -----20.30
Silver Hedge NCDEX- Apr----- Down -----3920 -----3950---- 3984------ 4010------ 4050
Base Metals

LME Copper ----------------------Sideways -6400 -----6470----- 6510----- 6560 ------6630
Copper------ MCX -----Apr----- Down------ 392------ 396 ------398.40 ----402 -------406
Zinc--------- MCX -----Mar----- Down ------115.50 --116.50 ---117.55---- 118.50--- 119.50
Lead--------- MCX -----Mar -----Down------ 122.00-- 123.00 ---124.05---- 125.00 ---126.00
Aluminium- MCX----- Mar----- Down------ 101.00 --102.00--- 102.95---- 104.00--- 105.00
Nickel -------MCX -----Mar----- Sideways --962 ------970------- 977.50---- 986------ 994
Crude Oil--- MCX----- Apr------ Down------ 5980---- 6040 -----6084------ 6130------ 6180
Crude Oil ---NYMEX- May -----Sideways-- 97.60 ---98.60 ----99.36------ 100.10 ---100.90
Brent Crude Oil MCX- Apr ------Down------ 6520 ---6580----- 6624------- 6670------ 6720
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX May --Sideways --104.80 -105.80--- 106.55---- 107.20--- 108.00
Natural Gas -MCX----- Mar ------Down------ 253----- 256------ 259.6------ 262 -------266

Outlook gold and silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade lower on declining safe haven appeal by hedge funds. Besides, markets expectations of rising interest rates will pressurize the metal prices in the coming session.
However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on the escalation of geo-political tensions between US and Russia.
In the Indian markets, prices are expected to trade lower, however rupee weakness can cushion sharp decline in prices.

Libya’s oil production continues to decline
National oil production in Libya will fall around 150,000 bpd on Tuesday as rebels have occupied ports and oil fields depressing country’s oil production.
Outlook Energy
Crude prices are expected to trade on a mixed note prices can trade positive if the tensions between Russia and the west can escalate further, while poor economic data from China can exert downside pressure on prices.
The Russia and West tensions seems to be never ending tussle and economic sanctions from a trade perspective will block energy supplies from Russia and affect the demand-supply balance in crude markets.
In the Indian markets, prices will move tracking cues from international markets as rupee is expected to trade on a mixed note.

Outlook Base metals
We expect base metals prices to trade lower today as decline in manufacturing activity from the biggest consumers will continue to exert downside pressure on prices. Also, expectations of mixed economic data from the US in the evening session coupled with estimates of fall in German Ifo Business Climate will act as a negative factor. Further, weak market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX will push the prices lower.
In the Indian markets, Rupee movement will provide direction to prices.

International Commodities
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Important Events DATA for Today
Indicator ---------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous --Impact
Nationwide HPI m/m ------------UK ------25th – 28th------------------- - - 0.6% ---Medium
German Ifo Business Climate ---Euro ----2:30pm ------------- 110.9------ 111.3---High
CPI y/y -----------------------------UK ------3:00pm ------------- 1.7% ------1.9%--- High
BBA Mortgage Approvals -------UK----- 3:00pm -------------- 50.0K---- 50.0K-- Medium
PPI Input m/m ---------------------UK----- 3:00pm -------------- 0.4%----- -0.9% ---Medium
RPI y/y ------------------------------UK ----3:00pm -------------- 2.6%------- 2.8% --Medium
CBI Realized Sales---------------- UK---- 4:30pm - -------------30-----------37 -----Medium
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -US -----6:30pm ------------- 13.3%------ 13.4% Medium
CB Consumer Confidence -------US -----7:30pm ------------- 78.7 ---------78.1 ---High
New Home Sales ------------------US -----7:30pm -------------- 447K------ 468K-- High

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