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free mcx tips website Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 18 June 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug----------Sideways----- 26550----- 26700 ----26839----- 26980---- 27100
Spot Gold----------------------------- Sideways ----1256 ------1263------ 1270------ 1277------- 1282
Gold Hedge NCDEX--- July----------- Sideways---- 24420 ----24560----- 24695---- 24820 ----24930

Silver------- MCX -----July----------- Sideways----- 41700 ----42000 ----42374 ----42650----- 42900
Spot Silver ----------------------------Sideways------ 19.30 -----19.50 ----19.69 ----19.80------ 20.00
Silver Hedge NCDEX--- June--------- Sideways----- 3740------ 3770----- 3804 -----3820------- 3850

Base Metals

LME Copper --------------------------Up ----------6630 --------6660 -------6711 ----6740------ 6780
Copper------ MCX ----June---------- Up ----------404 ----------406 -------408.75 ----411------- 413
Zinc ----------MCX ----June ---------Up --------125.00 -------126.80----- 127.80--- 128.50 --129.50
Lead ---------MCX ----June--------- Up---------- 125.00 -----126.00----- 126.95 ---128.00-- 129.00
Aluminium ----MCX ---June ----------Up ---------108.00 -----108.80 -----109.75---- 110.50-- 111.50
Nickel --------MCX ---June---------- Up --------1130 --------1140 -------1155.80---- 1170----- 1180
Energy
Crude Oil---- MCX ---June---------- Up---------- 6330 ------6380-------- 6414 -----6450----- 6500

Crude Oil NYMEX ----July -----------Up --------105.30 ----106.10------ 106.70----- 107.30-- 108.10
Brent Crude Oil MCX---June ---------Up-------- 6590 ------6640------- 6676------- 6710 ------6760
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX July --------Up--------- 111.90----- 112.70---- 113.35 -----113.90 ---114.80
Natural Gas ---MCX ---June ---------Up --------278-------- 282 --------285.20----- 289 --------291


International Commodities
Overview 

US Building Permits was at 0.99 million in the previous month.
US crude oil inventories expected to decline by 0.7 mn bbl – Reuters.
Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 58.4-level in June.
LME Copper inventories plunged by 0.7 percent.
UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 1.5 percent in last month.


Bullion
Gold

Spot gold prices ended lower on Tuesday retreating from a three week high on strength in dollar index and ease of tensions between the Middle East and the west reducing bullions safe haven appeal.
Although reading for consumer prices was higher it did not aid any sentiment for gold prices, while strength in the dollar on hopes that the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday would head for more monetary tightening acted as a negative factor.
On the MCX, gold prices headed higher and marginally gained by 0.03 percent to close at Rs.26839/10 gms.

Silver
Spot silver prices traded higher and gained half a percent to close at $19.7 as prices diverged from strength in gold prices. Silvers appeal as a speculative investment is driving traders to buy this grey metal and increasing interest by hedge funds to hold the metal being the prime reason for positivity in prices.
On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.42374/kg.

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold prices to trade sideways to lower as profit booking seems at the top of agenda for traders. Besides, traders will remain at bay as the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting tonight will decide the course of bullion prices in the coming session.
On the other side, violence in Iraq, geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine will continue to make headlines in turn the trajectory of precious metals prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices will trade sideways in line with international markets.

Energy
Crude Oil

WTI crude eased on Tuesday while Brent prices gained as fears of oil supply disruptions from Iraq offset the possibility of increased supply due to a thawing of relations between Iran and the West. Scores of Iraqis were killed on Tuesday during a battle for the provincial capital of Baquba as an uprising by Sunni insurgents continued to threaten the disintegration of Iraq. The fighting also shut the country's main oil refinery, starving parts of the country of fuel. However, Iraq's oil refineries in the south, which process most of the country's 3.3 million barrels per day of oil production, have been unaffected so far.
On the MCX, crude prices declined by 0.1 percent on account of profit booking and closed at Rs.6414/bbl.

API inventory update
The API released its weekly inventories report last night at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories fell by 5.7 million barrels for the week ending on 13th June 2014. Gasoline stocks declined by 0.48 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 0.53 million barrels for the same time period.


EIA inventory update
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 0.7million barrels for the week ending on 13th June 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.1 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase by 0.3 million barrels for the same time period.

Outlook Crude Oil
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a positive note as oil markets are flooded with reports of violence in Iraq and tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, oil markets will await the inventory data due to be released tonight by the EIA which is expected to show a drawdown in crude stockpiles. Also, the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting tonight will also have impact on crude prices.
On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note yesterday taking cues from speculation that efforts by Chinese policy makers to support growth in the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals will stabilize demand. Also, decline in inventories supported gains.
However, unfavorable economic data from the US, UK and Euro Zone capped sharp gains. Further, rise in risk aversion in the markets on the back of escalating tensions in Iraq coupled with strength in the DX acted as negative factors.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher owing to Rupee depreciation.

Copper
LME Copper prices gained 0.5 percent yesterday as China’s central bank extended a reserve-requirement cut to some national lenders including China Merchants Bank Co. and Industrial Bank Co., as well in an effort to shore up an economy set for the weakest growth since 1990. Also, decline of 0.7 percent in inventories to 161,200 tonnes added an upside to prices.
However, weak economic data from the significant consumers like the US, UK and Euro Zone restricted sharp upside in prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $6723/tonne and closed at $6719/tonne on Tuesday.
MCX Copper prices jumped by 0.7 percent taking cues from Rupee depreciation and touched an intra-day high of Rs.409.25/kg before closing at Rs.408.8/kg in the last trading session.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade mixed today as the decision by the Federal Reserve over QE tapering will provide direction to prices. Also, weak market sentiments along with strength in the DX will act as a negative factor.
While on the other hand, efforts by Chinese government to spur growth will add an upside to prices.
In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation will support gains in prices.

Important Events for Today

Indicator ----------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes --Japan----- 5:20am - - ----------------------- Medium
Trade Balance ----------------------Japan -----5:20am (-0.86T) (-1.01T) (-0.84T) Medium
MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes UK --------2:00pm --------- 0-0-9----- 0-0-9 High
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes----- UK --------2:00pm - --------0-0-9 -----0-0-9 High
German 10-y Bond Auction --------Euro --------Tentative - - -------------1.41/1.1 Medium
MPC Member Weale Speaks------- UK-------- 4:45pm - ----------------------- - Medium
Current Account-------------------- US--------- 6:00pm-- ------- (-96B) ---(-81B) Medium
Crude Oil Inventories ---------------US 8:00pm -------------------------- - (-2.6M) Medium
MPC Member Haldane Speaks -----UK 11:00pm - - ------------------------------- Medium
FOMC Economic Projections ------US 11:30pm - - --------------------------------- High
FOMC Statement ------------------US 11:30pm - --------------------------------- - High
Federal Funds Rate ----------------US 11:30pm ------------------- <0.25% <0.25% Medium




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