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MCX free tips on mobile Technical Levels for MCX 04 July 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Sideways----27180----27300----27464----27550----27650
Spot Gold------------------------------Sideways----1305----1311----1319----1323----1328
Gold Hedge----NCDEX----July------Sideways----25000----25110----25268----25340----25430
Silver Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----4030----4050----4086----4110----4140
Base Metals

LME Copper------------------------Up----7020----7070----7121----7160----7210
Crude Oil----MCX----July-------------Down----6120----6160----6210----6260----6300
Crude Oil NYMEX----Aug----------Sideways----102.40----103.00----103.92----104.70----105.40
Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----------Down----6190----6230----6285----6330----6420
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----July--------Down----6640----6680----6738----6780----6820
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX----Aug------Sideways----109.40----110.10----110.96----111.70----112.40
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----July----Down----6600----6640----6699----6740----6780
Natural Gas----MCX----July------------Down----254----258----261.6----263----266

International Commodities
Overview US markets are shut on the eve of Independence Day holiday.
India’s HSBC Services PMI rose to the 17-months high level in June.
Utilities added 100 billion cubic feet of NG into storage last week.
US Unemployment Rate fell to 6.1 percent in the previous month.
Spanish Services PMI dropped to 54.8-mark in the last month.
UK’s Services PMI declined by 0.9 points to 57.7-mark in June.


Spot gold prices declined by 0.58 percent on Thursday after U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in June, fueling expectations U.S. interest rates could rise earlier than expected. U.S. employment growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a six-year low, compelling evidence the economy was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 288,000 jobs and the unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent.
On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.72 percent and closed at Rs.27464/10 gms.

Spot silver prices traded flat in yesterday’s session as traders remained at bay for the outcome of the NFP report. NFP report printed more than market expectations raising economic optimism in turn industrial activity improving.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 0.9 percent and closed at Rs.44291/kg.

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as US markets are shut on account of Independence Day holiday. Besides, the trading activity will also remain thin on lack of participation across the global markets.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade sideways in line with sideways trade in international markets.

Crude Oil

Oil prices declined on both sides of the Atlantic as supply fears began to ease after Libya declared an end to an oil crisis that has slashed exports from the OPEC member. Libya's government said it had reached a deal with a rebel leader controlling oil ports involving the handover of the last two terminals, potentially making an extra 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude available for export. U.S. crude has fallen in 10 out of the last 13 sessions and posted a second straight weekly drop. It fell by 1.6 percent in the week to Thursday, and a combined 3 percent in the past two weeks.
On the MCX, crude prices declined by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.6210/bbl.

Natural gas
U.S. natural gas futures ended up 1 percent on Thursday after the government reported a big storage build that matched but did not exceed expectations. Utilities added 100 billion cubic feet of gas into storage last week, in a record eighth-consecutive triple-digit injection.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on profit booking at higher levels and no supply disturbance coming out of Iraq or Libya. Besides, the geo-political tensions has also eased down a bit leading to correction in oil prices as oil market realizes that further direction would be decided by the non-farm payrolls data and host of data sets to be released from the US.
On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade on a lower note in line with weakness in international markets.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded on a mixed note yesterday owing to favorable employment data from the US. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported gains.
While on the other hand, mixed economic data from Euro Zone along with strength in the DX capped sharp gains in prices. Also, mixed trend in LME inventories acted as a negative factor.
In the Indian markets, base metals higher in line with international markets.

LME Copper gained 0.5 percent yesterday as the U.S. unemployment rate fell to the lowest in almost six years, signaling that US economic recovery will boost demand amid supply curbs. Also, rise in risk appetite in the market sentiments acted as a positive factor.
However, sharp gains were restricted owing to weak data from Euro Zone and gain in inventories for the second day in a row.
MCX Copper prices rose by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.434.6/kg after touching a high of Rs.435.3/kg in the last trading session.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade higher owing to strong recovery in the US economy which boosted demand outlook for the red metal. Also, upbeat market sentiments will add an upside to prices. lesser volatility will be observed as US markets are shut on account of Independence Day holiday.
In the Indian markets, Copper prices will trade with a positive bias taking cues from international trends.

Important Events for Today
Indicator------------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
German Factory Orders m/m -----------Euro--------- 11:30am -------- -0.8% 3.1% Medium
Halifax HPI m/m ------------------------UK------- 4th – 8th - -0.3% 3.9% Medium
Bank Holiday---------------------------- US------------- All Day - - - -

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