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Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 14 August 2014
Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2 

Bullions
Gold -------MCX -----------Oct-------Sideways----28460----28580----28688----28800----28910
Spot----Gold-----------------------------Sideways----1301----1307----1312----1318----1324
Gold----Hedge----NCDEX----Sept----Sideways----25730----25800----25866----25925----26000
Silver----MCX----Sept-----------------Sideways----42650----43000----43317----43600----43950
Spot----Silver---------------------------Sideways----19.45----19.63----19.86----20.05----20.28
Silver----Hedge----NCDEX----Aug----Sideways----3860----3890----3924----3950----3980
Base Metal


LME----Copper------------------------Down----6785----6830----6884----6925----6970
Copper----MCX----Aug---------------Down----415----417----420.45----423----426
Zinc----MCX----Aug-------------------Down----137.20----138----139.10----140.00----141
Lead----MCX----Aug------------------Down----132.80----133.80----134.70----135.50----136.40
Aluminium----MCX----Aug------------Down----121.80----122.60----123.45----125.20----126.00
Nickel----MCX----Aug----------------Down----1112----1124----1136.40----1145----1156
Energy
Crude Oil----MCX----Aug-------------Down----5895----5920----5950----5980----6010
Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----------Down----96.30----96.80----97.39----98.00----98.60
Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug-----------Down----5835----5860----5894----5920----5950
Brent Crude Oil----MCX----Aug--------Down----6490----6530----6570----6620----6670
Brent Crude Oil----NYMEX----Sept----Down----102.60----103.10----103.73----104.20----104.75
Brent Crude Oil----NCDEX----Aug-----Down----6230----6260----6298----6325----6365
Natural Gas----MCX----Aug------------Down----230----232----235.50----238----241


International Commodities
Overview

  • US Core Retail Sales gained marginal 0.1 percent in July.
  • LME inventories turned its course on Tuesday and gained 0.5 percent.
  • Euro Zone’s Industrial Production slipped by 0.3 percent in June.
  • UK’s Unemployment Rate fell to 6.4 percent in June.
  • US crude oil inventories rose by 1.4 mn bbl in the last week.
Bullion
Gold

Spot gold prices gained on Wednesday after soft retail sales pointed to some loss of momentum in the U.S. economy, reducing fears among bullion investors that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected. The metal, however, remained in a narrow range, as signs that tensions in Ukraine and Iraq may be easing helped stock markets in Europe and the United States.
The Commerce Department said retail sales were virtually unchanged in July, in part because of a second straight month of declines. July's reading was the weakest since January 2014.
On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.15 percent and closed at Rs.28688/10gms.
Silver
Spot silver prices declined in yesterday’s session diverging from gains in gold prices. In addition, decline in base metals complex and strength in the base metals complex dragged prices further. Declining speculative interest and profit booking at higher levels also acted as a negative factor.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by around 0.9 percent and closed at Rs.43317/kg.
Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways as fears that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates have subsided. On the other hand, tension in Ukraine and Iraq continue to build the safe haven appeal for the precious metal. Meanwhile, the unemployment claims to be released from the US in the evening session will decide the trajectory of prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade sideways taking cues from sideways trade in international markets.

Energy
Crude Oil

Oil prices gained on both sides of the Atlantic in choppy trading on Wednesday, recovering from a 13-month low as turmoil in Iraq and Libya kept concerns about potential supply disruptions in focus. However, WTI oil prices pared gains after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported crude oil inventories rose 1.4 million barrels last week, against expectations stocks would be lower.
Exports from Libya are recovering despite the recent unrest, with the first leaving the port of Ras Lanuf on Tuesday after a year-long harbor blockade. Unrest in Iraq has yet to disrupt significant amounts of oil, though some small fields have been shut in the autonomous Kurdish region. The United States has sent around 130 additional military personnel to Iraq as Washington seeks to help Baghdad contain the threat posed by militants.
On the production front, OPEC output rose to a five-month high above 30 million barrels per day (bpd) in July and U.S. crude production averaged an estimated 8.5 million bpd, according to reports from the International Energy Agency and the EIA.
On the MCX, crude prices declined by around 0.5 percent and closed at Rs.5950/bbl.
EIA inventory update
The EIA released its weekly inventories report last night and US crude oil inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels for the week ending on 8th Aug2014. Gasoline stocks declined by 1.2 million barrels, whereas distillate inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels for the same time period.
Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade lower on ample supplies in the US and OPEC nations. Exports from Libya have also been smooth despite the violence while crude exports from Iraq have not been disturbed by the tensions in the region.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a weak note taking cues from weak international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded lower yesterday following the release of disappointing economic data from China. Investment in either property or fixed assets during the first seven months is sluggish, triggering market concerns over base metals demand. In addition, new RMB loans in July slumped to a near-five-year low, fueling market uncertainty toward China’s monetary policies.
However, the US and the UK have delivered more humanitarian aid to besieged Iraqi citizens while mediators hope to broker a peace deal over Gaza before a second 72-hour ceasefire between Israeli and Palestinian forces ends this evening restricted sharp fall in prices.
MCX base metals traded on a negative note in line with weakness in the international markets.
Copper
LME Copper prices plunged by 1 percent and fell to a seven-week low on Wednesday, dragged down by disappointing data on top consumer China's property sector, which raised concerns about the outlook for the metal used in power and construction. Also, the crisis in Ukraine has also sapped investor confidence by threatening a fragile economic recovery in Europe, thereby threatening demand from another major consumer.
In addition, weak economic data from the US and Euro Zone along with 0.5 percent gain in inventories acted as a negative factor. The red metal touched a low of $6873.75/tonne before closing at $6885/tonne.
MCX Copper prices slipped by 1.7 percent and touched a low of Rs.420.3/kg before closing at Rs.420.5/kg.
Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME copper prices to trade lower today weak economic data fuelled concerns about the prospects for demand in China, the world's biggest consumer. Also, estimates of rise in unemployment claim data from the US and decline in German Prelim GDP will exert downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade lower taking cues from international markets.

Important Events for Today
Indicator ----------------------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact 
Core Machinery Orders m/m-------------- Japan ----5:20am 8.8% 15.55 -19.5% Medium
French Prelim GDP q/q------------------- Euro ------11:00am - 0.1% 0.0% Medium
German Prelim GDP q/q-------------------- Euro----- 11:30am - -0.1% 0.8% High
French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q -----Euro------- 12:15pm - -0.1% -0.1% Medium
ECB Monthly Bulletin ---------------------Euro------- 1:30pm - - - Medium
Final CPI y/y------------------------------ Euro------- 2:30pm - 0.4% 0.4% Medium
Flash GDP q/q ---------------------------Euro ---------2:30apm - 0.1% 0.2% Medium
Unemployment Claims-------------------- US---------- 6:00pm - 307K 289K High
Import Prices m/m -----------------------US---------- 6:00pm - -0.2% 0.1% Medium



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