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free mcx tips Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 16 June 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Bullions
Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Up ----------26400------ 26500 -----26627 -----26750-- 26850
Spot Gold ------------------------------Up--------- 1270 --------1275 ------1281 ------1287---- 1292
Gold Hedge NCDEX ---July -----------Up ----------24330 ------24430----- 24548---- 24660 --24750
Silver------- MCX ------July -----------Up---------- 41200 ------41500----- 41875---- 42000-- 42300
Spot Silver------------------------------ Up ---------18.90 -------19.00------ 19.18 ----19.20---- 19.40
Silver Hedge NCDEX ---June----------- Up ---------3720 -------3750 -------3788 -----3790---- 3820
Base Metals 



LME Copper ---------------------------Sideways---- 6570 ------6610 --------6671 -----6710---- 6750
Copper------- MCX ----June -----------Sideways ---395 --------397 -------400.85 -----403----- 406
Zinc -----------MCX---- June--------- Up --------122.50 -------123.50 ----124.35 ---125.50 --126.50
Lead ---------MCX------ June -------Sideways--- 122.00 ------123.00 ----124.05---- 125.00-- 126.00
Aluminium ----MCX ----June ---------Sideways --106.50 -------107.50 -----108.65--- 109.50 --110.50
Nickel --------MCX ----June ---------Sideways ---1060-------- 1070 ------1080.40 ----1090 ----1100
Energy
Crude Oil----- MCX ----June ---------Up--------- 6310 --------6360 -------6399 ------6440 ----6490
Crude Oil -----NYMEX--- July --------Up ------105.80 ------106.70 -----107.37----- 108.00---108.90
Brent Crude Oil MCX ----June--------- Up------- 6580------- 6630-------- 6676 ------6710------ 6760
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX--- July------- Up -------112.00------ 112.80 -----113.51 -----114.20 --115.00
Natural Gas---- MCX -----June --------Up------- 278---------281 --------284.70----- 288 -------292


International Commodities
Overview
US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.2 percent in last month.
LME Copper inventories declined by 2.4 percent in the last week.
Euro Zone Trade Balance was at 15.8 billion Euros in April.
UK’s CB Leading Index gained by 0.5 percent in the month of April.
China’s Industrial Production grew marginally by 8.8 percent in May.

Bullion
Gold
Last week, gold held above its lowest level in four months on expectation that its price declines after a rally in the equity markets might spur purchases. In addition, escalating violence in Iraq has led to situation of civil war appealing bullions safe haven appeal. Iraq’s ruling government is calling on the U.S. for military aid, although such is not likely. The fear now is that violence in Iraq could spread to other Arab countries which will be supportive for gold prices.
On the flip side, In a speech last Monday by St Louis Federal Reserve President, James Bullard said that there is an evidence of inflation moving higher, indicating that monetary policy winding will be done as soon as possible which in turn will lead to correction in gold prices. In the International markets, gold prices gained by around 2 percent in the last week. Gold prices touched a weekly high of $1277.70/oz before closing at $1276.5/oz on Friday.
In the Indian markets, gold prices rose by around 3 percent in the last week taking cues from strong international markets. Gold prices touched a weekly high of Rs.26660/10 gms before closing at Rs.26627/10 gms on Friday.
Silver
Spot silver prices largely traded positive in the last week as renewed interest in silver by speculators and short covering being the prime reason behind the rally. Although the entire base metal complex traded lower, silver prices largely tracked movement in gold prices as bargain hunters pinched in. In the international markets, the white metal rose by 3.43 percent, touched a weekly high of $19.71/oz, and closed the week at $19.62/oz. On the MCX, silver prices rose by 4.70 percent and closed at Rs.41875/kg in line with strength in international markets. Silver prices made a weekly high of Rs.41900/kg.

Outlook Gold and Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of violence in Iraq which will be a supportive factor for gold prices. Besides, weakness in the dollar will also act as a positive factor. Renewed interest by the investors in SPDR gold trust will also aid the rise in gold prices in the coming sessions.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking strong cues from international markets.

Outlook Energy
On an intraday basis, we expect crude and gas prices to trade on a positive note as escalation of violence in Iraq will be a boost for oil prices creating supply concerns. Besides, there are fears that this instability could spread to other parts of Iraq where major oil fields are located.
In addition, gasoline demand in the US for driving season will ensure that commercial crude inventories are drained in the coming weeks acting as a positive factor.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking strong cues from international markets.

Base Metals

Base metals on the LME traded on a negative note last week taking cues from unfavorable economic data from the US that led to concerns of demand outlook in the second biggest consumer. Also, mixed global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX acted as negative factors.
However, favorable industrial production data from China and Euro Zone restricted sharp downside in prices. Also, declining trend in LME inventories supported gains.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded on a mixed note but Rupee depreciation cushioned sharp fall in prices.

Outlook Copper
We expect LME Copper prices to trade sideways today owing to mixed economic data from the US in the evening session. Further, weak market sentiments along with strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on prices.


Important Events for Today
Indicator-------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
CPI y/y ----------------------------Euro 2:30pm - ------------------------------ 0.5% Medium
Core CPI y/y ----------------------Euro 2:30pm - ------------------------------ 0.7% Medium
Empire State Manufacturing Index -US 6:00pm -------------------------------- 19.0 Medium
TIC Long-Term Purchases --------US 6:30pm - --------------------------------- 4.0B Medium
Capacity Utilization Rate ----------US 6:45pm - -------------------------------- 78.6% Medium
Industrial Production m/m ----------US 6:45pm ------------------------------- - -0.6% Medium
NAHB Housing Market Index -----US 7:30pm - --------------------------------- 45 Medium




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