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MCX bullion live charts Technical Levels for Metals and Energy 24 June 2014

Commodity Exchange-- Contract----- Trend--------- S2------- --S1-------- LTP--------- R1--------- R2
Gold -------MCX ------Aug-----------Sideways ---27350 -----27500 ----27678------ 27800 ----27900
Spot Gold -----------------------------Up--------- 1300-------- 1308 -----1316------ 1322------- 1327
Gold Hedge NCDEX---- July----------Up--------- 25190 ------25330---- 25498----- 25610 ----25700
Silver -------MCX------ July---------- Sideways-- 43700------- 44100 ----44445---- 44800----- 45200
Spot Silver---------------------------- Up ----------20.40------- 20.70----- 20.80---- 20.90 ------21.20
Silver Hedge NCDEX--- June--------- Up ---------3970-------- 4000------ 4038----- 4070------- 4100
Base Metals

LME Copper------------------------- Up---------- 6800 ---------6840------ 6901 ----6940 -------6990
Copper------ MCX------ June-------- Up ---------412---------- 415-------- 418.15--- 421 -------424
Zinc ---------MCX------- June------- Up ---------129.00 -------130.00---- 131.15--- 132.00-- 133.00
Lead --------MCX -------June------- Up----------- 127.50------ 128.50 ----129.50--- 130.50 --131.50
Aluminium ----MCX----- June-------- Up-------- 109.50------- 110.50----- 111.45---- 112.50 --113.50
Nickel -------MCX------ June------- Sideways ----1080 -------1090 -------1100.30---- 1110 -----1120
Crude Oil ----MCX------ July --------Sideways ----6300------ 6350------- 6405------ 6450------ 6500
Crude Oil ----NYMEX--- Aug -------Sideways ----103.90---- 104.70------ 105.66--- 106.40-- 107.20
Crude Oil----NCDEX -----July------- Sideways ----6342------ 6392------- 6447 -----6492------ 6587
Brent Crude Oil MCX ----July --------Sideways ----6570 ------6620 -------6676----- 6720------ 6770
Brent Crude Oil NYMEX Aug--------- Sideways ----112.10 ----112.90 ------113.93-- 114.70--- 115.50
Brent Crude Oil NCDEX July---------- Sideways ----6790 -----6840 --------6895.00--- 6940 ----6990
Natural Gas ---MCX----- June-------- Down --------262 ------264 ---------267.70 ----269 ------273

International Commodities
Overview German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4-mark in June.
API crude oil inventories expected to decline by 1.3 mn bbl – Reuters.
US Existing Home Sales rose to 4.89 million in the last month.
LME Copper inventories fell by 0.5 percent to 158,575 tonnes.
Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9-level in existing month.


Spot gold prices continued its positive run on Monday on weak US equities and increasing violence in Iraq. The metal hovered near its two-month high of $1,321.90 after posting its biggest weekly gain in three months last week.
The yellow metal extended last week's 3 percent gain as Iran's supreme leader accused the United States on Sunday of trying to retake control of Iraq by exploiting sectarian rivalries, as Sunni insurgents drove toward Baghdad from new strongholds along the Syrian border.
On the MCX, gold prices rose by 0.04 percent taking cues from international markets and closed at Rs.27678/10gms.

Silver prices declined on Monday diverging from gains in gold prices as weakness in Nickel prices and profit booking at higher levels acted as a negative factor. Weakness in the dollar index however cushioned sharp downside in prices.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 0.3 percent and closed at Rs.44445/kg.

Outlook Gold Silver
On an intraday basis, we expect bullion prices to trade sideways as account of profit booking at higher levels will lead to lower prices. In addition, the existing home sales data released last night shows that housing sector is gaining momentum acting as a negative factor. On the other hand, escalating violence in Iraq will cushion sharp downside.
On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade lower in line with international markets.

Crude Oil

Oil prices have rallied nearly five percent amid crisis in Iraq this month, however prices declined on Monday, its largest decline in five weeks as oil exports from Iraq remain unaffected by Islamic insurgents' who have continued to advance on Baghdad.
Iraq ships 90 percent of its crude exports from southern terminals, which are far from the Sunni insurgency. The country's oil exports in June were near record rates at around 2.53 million barrels per day. The conflict in Iraq has added about a $3 per barrel risk premium into the Brent and U.S. crude oil market.
On the MCX, crude prices declined by around 1 percent and closed at Rs.6405/bbl.

API inventory forecast
The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending on 20th June 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 1.8 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase by 1 million barrels for the same time period.
Natural Gas
U.S. natural gas futures dropped to the lowest price in nearly a month on Monday after revised weather forecasts for July turned cooler, raising the prospect for increased gas injections that will boost depleted gas stockpiles before next winter.
On the MCX, natural gas prices declined by more than 2 percent in line with fall in international markets and closed at Rs.267.70.

On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade sideways as Iraq issue still remains uncertain as militants take control over the refinery and advance to Baghdad. Meanwhile, the API inventories due tonight is expected to show drawdown supporting prices.
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways in line with international markets.

Base Metals

Base metals on the LME apart from Nickel traded on a positive note yesterday on the back of favorable manufacturing data from the biggest consumers, the US and China. Further, decline in LME inventories acted as a positive factor.
However, mixed global market sentiments along with weak economic data from Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, base metals traded higher in line with international markets.

LME Copper prices jumped by 0.8 percent yesterday as signs of optimism brightened after favorable manufacturing data from the US and China. Also, weakness in the DX coupled with 0.5 percent decline in inventories to 158,575 tonnes supported gains.
However, unfavorable manufacturing and services PMI data from Euro Zone along with rising uncertainty in Iraq kept the gains under check. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $6900/tonne and closed at $6873.5/tonne on Monday.
MCX Copper prices gained 0.6 percent and touched a weekly high of Rs.420.3/kg before closing at Rs.418.2/kg in the last trading session.

Outlook Base Metals
We expect LME Copper prices to trade on a positive note today on the back of expectations of positive economic data from the US. Also, increasing optimism from the biggest consumers, the US and China will brighten demand prospects for the red metal.
However, ongoing probe into Qingdao port along with estimates of weak business climate data from Germany will cap sharp gains. In addition, mixed market sentiments and strength in the DX will act as negative factors.
In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation will support further gains in prices.

Important Events Data  for Today
Indicator--------------------------- Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
German Ifo Business Climate------- Euro -----1:30pm - ----------110.3------ 110.4 High
Inflation Report Hearings -----------UK-------- 2:00pm - - ------------------------- High
BBA Mortgage Approvals---------- UK -------2:00pm -------------- 41.3K 42.2K Medium
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks ----US-------- 5:35pm - ------------------------- - Medium
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y ----US --------6:30pm ----------- 11.7% 12.4% Medium
CB Consumer Confidence ---------US---------- 7:30pm ---------------- 83.6 83.0 High
New Home Sales------------------ US ---------7:30pm ---------------- 442K 433K High
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks -----------US---------- 7:30pm ----------------------- - - Medium

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