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Technical Outlook for evening session –4th Aug’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity----Unit----Support 2----Support 1----CMP----Resistance 1----Resistance 2
Gold----Oct’14----Rs/10 gm----28000----28120----28230----28350----28450
Spot----Gold----$/oz----1281----1287----1293----1300----1305


NCDEX----Gold hedge----July’14----25370----25440----25509----25600----25670

Silver----Sept’14----Rs /kg----43900----44250----44525----44900----45150
Spot----Silver----$/oz----20----20.23----20.38----20.45----20.6
NCDEX----Silver hedge----Aug’14----3975----4010----4038----4070----4100
Crude----Oil----Aug’14----Rs /bbl----5940----5975----6009----6030----6065
Nymex----Crude----Oil----Sept’14 $/bbl----96.9----97.5----98.11----98.6----99.2
Natural----Gas----July’14----Rs /mmbtu----228----231----234----236----239
LME----Copper----$/tonne----6960----7015----7070----7125----7180
Copper----Aug’14----Rs----/kg----430----433----435.6----439----441
Zinc----July’14----Rs----/kg----142.4----143.3----144----145----145.8
Lead----July’14----Rs----/kg----135----135.9----136.55----137.5----138.3
Aluminum----July’14----Rs----/kg----120.3----121----121.6----122.5----123.2
Nickel----July’14----Rs----/kg----1100----1112----1125----1135----1142

Outlook
We expect gold and silver prices to trade sideways as the NFP data released last week has indicated a bit of stress in the labor market, while the Fed has reinstated its confidence in the US economy acting as a negative factor.
Crude oil prices will is expected to trade lower on high inventories of gasoline in the United States coupled with a delay in start of Kansas refinery which consumes more of WTI for processing.
Base metals are likely to trade mixed today in the absence of major economic data in today’s session. Copper prices are likely to trade lower as Freeport-McMoRan Inc's Indonesia unit will resume copper concentrate exports by Wednesday, thereby adding to supply.

International Commodities
News and Analysis


  • Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 29.8K in July.
  • Portugal bails out Espirito Banco Santo by 4.9 billion-euro.
  • UK’s Construction PMI slipped to 62.4-mark in the last month.

European markets are trading on a positive note today owing to easing concern about indebted lenders after Portugal’s central bank took control of Banco Espirito Santo SA. Asian markets ended mixed and US stock futures are trading in the green.
Spanish Unemployment Change fell by 29.8K in July as against a fall of 122.7K in June. UK’s Construction PMI fell to 62.4-mark in July from 62.6 levels in June.
Spot gold prices are trading marginally lower at $1923.5 mark although weak U.S. jobs data diminished fears that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon, and as weaker stocks prompted some safe-haven bids. Data on Friday showed U.S. jobs growth slowed in July and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, pointing to slack in the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 last month, while economists had expected a 233,000 gain. On the MCX, gold prices are trading flat at Rs.28235/10 gms
Spot silver prices are trading lower flat in line with flat trade in gold prices. Strength in the DX is however acting as a negative factor exerting downside pressure. On the MCX, silver prices are trading higher by 0.3 percent and trading at Rs.44560/kg.
Base metals on the LME are trading on a mixed note today as bailout of Banco Santo by the Portugal central nabk supported gains. while on the other hand, Data from the US Labor Department showed hiring by US employers slowed in July yet still remained robust, thereby adding to concerns that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates sooner than later acted as negative factors. In the Indian markets, base metals traded mixed in line with international trends.
LME Copper prices fell by 0.1 percent today as investors gauged the health of China’s economy as growing inventories of the industrial metal in Shanghai warehouses pointed to a slowdown in demand from the world’s largest copper consumer. However, upbeat market sentiments restricted sharp fall. On the MCX, copper prices are trading on a flat note.
The U.S. contract futures fell more than 4 percent last week in its biggest weekly decline since January. After ending last week at its lowest settlement since Feb. 6, WTI crude prices are trading higher by 0.13 percent at $98.01/bbl. Escalating violence in Iraq and Libya would continue to support oil prices in the evening session. On the MCX, crude prices are trading higher by 0.5 percent at Rs.6000/bbl.

Important Events for Today
Indicator -----------------------Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Spanish Unemployment Change Euro----- 12:30pm---- -29.8K -116.3K -122.7K Medium
Construction PMI --------------UK------- 2:00pm----- 62.4 62.1 62.6 High


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